A lone strong thunderstorm cluster developed over Menifee County ahead of a cold front during the late afternoon of the 26th. As the storm moved southeast, it briefly became severe and produced wind damage in at least two locations in Breathitt County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A lone strong thunderstorm cluster developed over Menifee County ahead of a cold front during the late afternoon of the 26th. As the storm moved southeast, it briefly became severe and produced wind damage in at least two locations in Breathitt County. The cluster later dissipated as it moved deeper into Southeast Kentucky during the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 26, 3:29 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 429 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 429 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2023 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over NM and the Southern Rockies and extended east into the southeastern Conus and also north through the Rockies. Meanwhile, an upper level trough extended from the Maritimes into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states. Between these two, west northwest flow was in place from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley and Southern Appalachians. Several weak shortwaves are moving within the west northwest flow aloft with a more pronounced shortwave working MO. Further upstream, a shortwave trough was moving from Saskatchewan into Manitoba while an upper level low was in place to the north of Hudson Bay. At the sfc, a frontal zone continues to sag south across the OH Valley and Appalachian region. Some redevelopment has occurred across the region, with activity in Menifee County having recently become deep enough for lighting activity to be detected. Outside of this convection and additional convection in the north, cumulus has developed in an environment with temperatures averaging in the mid to upper 80s while dewpoints are in the lower 70s. In the near term, additional convection may develop through early this evening. Temperatures in the mid to in some cases the upper 80s combined with dewpoints mainly in the lower 70s. MLCAPE was analyzed at 1000 to 1500 J/kg in the norther portion of the area and between 250 J/kg along the TN border where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to near 1000 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates are on the weak side near 6C/km if that with low level lapse rates near 7C/km over most of the area. Shear is also on the weak side with effective shear of less than 20KT. Convective allowing models generally suggest some additional activity mostly in northern sections of the area through evening where MLCAPE is analyzed and forecast to be highest in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over the next few hours. PW was generally in the 1.75 to 1.9 inch range. A few strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain could fall from this activity. Otherwise, some of the upstream activity in central and western portions of KY could reach the southwest corner of the area near Lake Cumberland later this evening. Otherwise, with the loss of daytime heating and the boundary continuing to sag south overnight, chances for convection should diminish by late this evening into the overnight hours. Sfc high pressure in the Great Lakes will nose toward the region behind the front and some clearing at least of mid and high clouds may occur at times late. This could set the stage for some fog and or stratus development. Sunday, the shortwave trough that is currently in MO is expected to slowly have moved into the OH and TN valley. This will occur as the ridge of high pressure initially in the southern Rockies retrogrades west/becomes centered over the southeast Conus and the shortwave trough initially north of the Dakotas moves into the Northern Great Lakes in advance of a stronger shortwave trough rotating into Ontario around the upper level low north of Hudson Bay. This weak shortwave is expected to continue slowly east and into eastern KY on Sunday night. At the same time, this shortwave is expected to interact with the boundary that will have sagged into the southeast with multiple sfc waves passing south of the area. Moisture is expected to be deepest across the south nearer to the TN and VA borders for the Sunday to Sunday night timeframe, and thus chances for convection Sunday into Sunday night, in the isolated to scattered range, will be best south of the Mtn Parkway, especially from the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY 80 corridor south. When and where any clearing occurs on Sunday night, fog will also be a concerns, especially in valleys. Behind the boundary tonight, lows are expected to be a couple of degrees on average cooler than recent nights. Highs on Sunday will are expected average on the order of 5 degrees or more cooler compared to today, while Sunday nights lows should continue the cooler trend. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2023 Key Points: * Temperatures more typical of late summer continue through the last days of August. * A wavering frontal boundary over the Tennessee Valley will keep a low end chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for locations near and southeast of the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridor through Tuesday. * Drier high pressure tries to build in for the remainder of the week; however, a tropical system may pass near or brush eastern Kentucky on Thursday. The 26/12z model suite analysis beginning Monday morning shows mean troughing over Eastern Canada extending down into the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley. Two tropical systems are also noted, one between Bermuda and the Bahamas and also off of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a wavering frontal boundary will be draped from Virginia through the upper Tennessee Valley down the Mississippi Delta. Diurnally-modulated shower and thunderstorm chances are expected for Monday across far southeastern Kentucky (primarily the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway Corridor southeastward) as the aforementioned frontal boundary remains nearby and the first tropical system passes well off the Southeast US coast. That boundary should make a southward jog later Tuesday night and Wednesday as a stronger but moisture-starved front drops in from the north. High pressure then attempts to nose in from north behind this front, while the second tropical system lifts north from the Yucatan and likely makes landfall along the Gulf Coast mid-week. There is considerable model spread with regard to where the tropical system makes landfall and its track thereafter. The GFS tracks this system up into the southern Appalachians on Thursday whereas the ECMWF and Canadian show a more easterly track to off the coast of the Carolinas. High pressure should become reestablished across eastern Kentucky for Friday and Saturday. For now, only added a slight chance for showers across most of the CWA on Thursday; otherwise, left the NBM largely unchanged in the long term, aside from the typical adjustments to temperatures and winds to account for topographic effects. Temperatures will run near to slightly below normal with highs primarily in the lower 80s on Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent upon the evolution of the tropical system that may develop near the Yucatan. That system should be followed by more pleasant days with highs in the lower and middle 80s. Nighttime lows should be primarily in the 55 to 65 range. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2023 A boundary will continue to sag south across the area during the first 12 to 15 hours of the period, before it slides further south and high pressure over the Great Lakes noses into the region. Uncertainty abounds with convective evolution and areal extent following extensive cloud cover during the morning. A couple of weak passing shortwaves may lead to isolated to scattered coverage of convection, generally after 20Z for most locations. This activity would lead to local lowering of CIGs and Vis at times into the MVFR or IFR ranges. Any convection should diminish by the 03Z to 06Z timeframe, with fog and low stratus becoming commonplace thereafter. Depending on the degree of clearing, some dense fog is not out of the question. For now fog has been kept in the MVFR and IFR range for the TAFS and in the gridded forecast. THe fog and low clouds will then gradually lift and mix out to end the period. Overall, generally light and variable winds are expected outside of convection. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 343 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271945- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 343 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This evening and tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area through this evening, a few of which could bring strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over portions of south central and southeast Kentucky from Sunday through Tuesday, primarily during the afternoon hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. JP
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
531 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Steele 37.98N 83.17W
08/25/2023 Morgan KY 911 Call Center
Tree reported down along Route 650 about 2
miles from Route 172.
&&
HALThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 3 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:32 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down along KY-1812 near the top of Panbowl Hill, approximately 2.5 miles from the intersection of KY-1812 and KY-15.
A tree was blown down along KY-476 in the vicinity of Clayhole, approximately 3.5 miles from the highway's intersection with KY-15.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1134659, 1134660.