Drought in Kansas, May 1 to 31, 2023

Name: Drought in Kansas, May 1 to 31, 2023
Start: 2023-05-01T00:00
End: 2023-05-31T23:59
Location: Kansas

May 1 to 31, 2023 · NWS GID · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor (USDM), putting the area under its overall-worst drought classification in a decade.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

During May 2023, drought further worsened across the vast majority of this six-county North Central Kansas area per the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), putting the area under its overall-worst drought classification in a decade. By month's end, most of the domain was assigned at least Severe Drought (D2), marking the most widespread local coverage of D2-or-worse since April 2013. On a more recent note, this also marked the 16th consecutive month that D2 plagued at least some portion of the local area. However, of greater concern during May was a steady expansion of both Extreme Drought (D3) and worst-off Exceptional Drought (D4) as a gradually-worsening drought situation over the last few years ratcheted up another notch. By the time May closed, at least portions of all six local counties were afflicted with D3 and at least portions of five counties contained D4, marking the greatest local coverage of D4 since Feb. 2013. Although precipitation deficits during May were not as extreme as those during March-April, the ever-building dryness heading into the 2023 growing season made significant drought degradation an inevitability (see below for more May precipitation details). Focusing on county-level USDM drought category specifics during the month, the first two USDM issuances of the month featured widespread expansion of D2+D3. More specifically, the vast majority of the previously-better-off Moderate Drought (D1) zone within all of Jewell County along with much of Smith/Jewell counties was quickly converted to D2/D3, leaving only a lingering stripe of D1 across eastern Mitchell and extreme southeast Jewell counties. As for the worst-off D4 areas, although the first half of May saw a slight northward expansion across more of Rooks County, all local D4 remained confined to much of Rooks and southwestern Osborne counties. The second half of the month brought further increases in the areal coverage of D3/D4, with D3 expanding into northeastern Smith/northwestern Jewell counties and D4 ballooning to include much more of Osborne County along with small portions of southern Smith, far southwestern Jewell and far western Mitchell counties. At month's end, roughly 95 percent of the six-county area was assigned D2-or-worse, roughly two-thirds of the domain contained D3-or worse and around one-third of the area featured worst-off D4 (including the vast majority of Rooks/Osborne counties).

Turning to May 2023 precipitation details, rainfall trends across the six counties as a whole were best described as moderately (but not extremely) dry. Totals were actually relatively variable across the area, although the majority of the domain tallied between 1.50-4.00 inches, or about 35-95 percent of normal. Unfortunately, around 95% of the area checked in at least slightly below normal, and more concerningly, nearly 40% of the area fared no better than one-third to one-half of normal. Per a combination of measured totals from around 20 NWS/CoCoRaHS observers along with AHPS precipitation analysis, the very-driest pocket in North Central Kansas was centered over east-central Osborne County, while the primary, tiny patches of perhaps slightly above normal rainfall resided over north central Phillips and far south central Rooks counties (unfortunately no ground-truth gauges in these particular places). One of the driest long-term NWS stations was Beloit, which registered its 12th-driest May on record (out of 114 available years) with only 1.36. More notably, Beloit endured its 4th-driest March-May (meteorological spring) on record with merely 2.17/26% of normal. Getting back to May-only data, a few of the lowest NWS/CoCoRaHS totals were: 1.36 in Beloit, 1.41 near Hunter, 1.51 near Osborne (KSU mesonet) and 1.62 at Cawker City. On the more fortunate (but no better than near to slightly below normal) side of things, a few of the highest monthly amounts featured: 4.12 in Plainville, 4.06 in Lebanon, 3.67 at Logan and 3.66 in Ionia.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:53 PM CST, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 11:53 PM CST, 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

- FIRE WEATHER:
Today's Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire "on time" at 8 PM.

It still appears that MOST of our coverage area (CWA) will be
"safe" from outright-critical fire weather thresholds on Monday
afternoon due mainly to lighter (but still breezy) winds, but a
few hours of marginally-critical conditions cannot be ruled out in
limited areas. Please refer to the separate Fire Weather section
below for more details.

- THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST/FREEZE CONCERNS:
Have made very little (hardly any) change to the overnight
forecast inherited from day shift. As a result, the CWA-wide
Freeze Warning continues as-is, as most of the CWA is expected to
at least briefly bottom out in the 28-32 degrees range (and some
typically-colder spots could easily drop a bit lower than this).
Actual FROST development is a bit more in question (the airmass
has been so dry lately that it has been difficult to generate more
than very patchy frost on our colder nights), but our official
forecast still highlights the potential for "widespread frost"
across various parts of the area, as that possibility certainly
exists.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Key Messages:

* Red Flag Warning in effect today until 8PM.

* Freeze Warning issued for tonight into Monday morning. Another
  sub-freezing night is likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday with low-
  mid 80s for highs Thursday. Periodic chances for rain and/or
  thunderstorms Wednesday evening through next weekend.

Widespread northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph have developed
across the forecast area and relative humidity values are in the
low 20s...a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM this
evening.

Tonight...
The Red Flag Warning will expire as the wind decreases, then
temperatures will drop off significantly. While some areas in
north central Kansas will just barely drop to or just below
freezing, further north temperatures will fall to the mid to upper
20s, and in those areas such as from Lexington to Ord, a hard
freeze is possibly if not likely. This will be cold enough to kill
any small plants left outside.

Monday...
The upper low over the Great Lakes will continue to move east,
helping to relax the pressure gradient and decrease the winds.
High pressure near the surface will keep conditions dry and
mostly cloud free. Winds will be strong enough and the area will
be dry enough that widespread near-critical fire weather
conditions are expected. That being said, winds may not be strong
enough to do more than perhaps very isolated and fleeting critical
fire weather conditions along and east of a line extending from
Ord to Grand Island...locations further south-southwest are
expected to have lighter winds. High temperatures will be in the
lower 60s north and the upper 60s south. We may very well need
some kind of frost and/or freeze product Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with most of the area once again forecast to be below
freezing.

Tuesday through Thursday...
After a cold start Tuesday morning, high pressure over the area
will allow temperatures to rebound quickly, especially with
relatively light winds expected. The upper level ridging will
build over the area through Thursday, with increasing highs
throughout. Highs Tuesday will be mainly in the 60s Tuesday, the
70s Wednesday, and the low-mid 80s Thursday. Conditions will be
dry through Wednesday before a disturbance moves across the area
Wednesday evening bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Friday through next weekend...
From here on out, things depend on how quickly the upper ridge
breaks down. If, as indicated by the EC run, it is slower to break
down, the chances of precipitation over the area are reduced with
the bulk of the moisture missing to the north and east Friday. If
it is slightly faster as suggested by the GFS, there will be a
greater chance of precipitation over the area Friday. Saturday and
Sunday, confidence is a little higher of an upper trough impacting
the area and bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain warm with highs in the 70s Friday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

Not much change from the on going pattern the last few days, which
has featured clear skies, light winds overnight, and then gusty
northwesterly winds during the day time hours. VFR conditions will
continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Monday afternoon:
Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions will develop
across most of the outlook area, due to northwest winds gusting at
least 20-30 MPH and relative humidity dropping as low as 15-25
percent. Although parts of mainly the northeast half of the
outlook area (especially along an axis running roughly from
Ord/Loup City southeastward through the Tri Cities and toward
Geneva/Hebron) could meet marginally-critical fire weather
conditions for a few hours, lighter winds than the last couple of
days should help limit the overall fire danger level.

Tuesday afternoon: Winds will be even lighter yet, but some
marginally near- critical fire weather conditions could still
materialize mainly within counties east of the Highway 281
corridor, which are most favored to see northerly wind gusts
around 20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 20-25 percent.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

-- ONE OF THE VERY-DRIEST APRILS ON RECORD IN THE TRI CITIES!

We have compiled the final April precip totals for our official
Tri Cities airport stations, and the results are not "pretty" at
all, with both Grand Island/Kearney having a Top-3 DRIEST APRIL!

- Grand Island:
Only 0.15"...3RD-DRIEST APRIL on record of 128...driest since
0.09" in 1989!

- Kearney:
Only 0.20"...2ND-DRIEST APRIL on record of 128...driest since
0.05" in 1989!

- Hastings:
0.69"...14th-driest April on record of 126...driest since 0.33" in
1990
(side note: due mainly to a very localized/slow-moving
thunderstorm on the 9th, our NWS office just north of the city
ended up with 1.86" for the month, but this total was definitely
NOT representative of what fell in most of the city).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 7:26 PM CST, 4 hours 34 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
826 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
826 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

The entire outlook area is under a Freeze Warning through 9 AM
Monday. Please refer to the Warning statement for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A Freeze Warning will remain in effect through 9 AM Monday. Then,
late Monday night into Tuesday morning, another round of slightly
sub-freezing temperatures and/or frost development will again
occur,but this could end up being one of the final frost/freeze
threats of the spring.

On Monday afternoon, widespread near-critical fire weather
conditions will develop across most of the outlook area, due to
northwest winds gusting at least 20 to 30 MPH and relative
humidity dropping as low as 15 to 25 percent. Although parts of
mainly the northeast half of the outlook area could meet
marginally-critical fire weather conditions for a few hours,
lighter winds than the last couple of days should help limit the
overall fire danger level.

On Tuesday afternoon, winds will be even lighter yet, but some
marginally near-critical fire weather conditions could still
materialize mainly within counties east of the Highway 281
corridor, which are most favored to see northerly wind gusts
around 20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 20 to 25 percent.

Between Wednesday evening and Saturday, there will be
several, off-and-on chances for thunderstorms within the area.
It is too soon to confidently assess the potential for any severe
storms, but at least for now, there are no days or nights that
look particularly concerning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Phillips

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Phillips forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -99.347 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Rooks

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Rooks forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.350, -99.325 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Osborne

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Osborne forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.350, -98.768 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Smith

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Smith forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.785 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Mitchell

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Mitchell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.393, -98.209 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Jewell

When: May 2, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jewell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.218 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kansas in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Kansas, May 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096251, 1096252, 1096253, 1096254, 1096255, 1096256.