Georgia, 2023

Damaging Wind in Georgia, May 13, 2023

May 13, 2023 · NWS GSP · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Isolated thunderstorms developed over northeast Georgia during the late afternoon and evening. One of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts in Stephens County.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.

Isolated thunderstorms developed over northeast Georgia during the late afternoon and evening. One of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts in Stephens County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 13, 1:35 PM EST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 13, 1:35 PM EST, 3 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily thunderstorms chances will remain through the weekend in
advance of a backdoor cold front dropping into the area from the
north by Monday. Surface high pressure will briefly settle across
the region shunting rain chances to the far western edges of the
area early next week. Moisture returns by mid week as the surface
high lifts away from the region with an unsettled pattern and rain
chances returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 pm EDT Saturday: Much of the low cloud cover has scattered
across the CWA this afternoon, allowing for good insolation. Having
said that, the atmosphere has not destabilized especially strongly,
as the latest SPC Mesoanalysis only depicts sbCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
across the forecast area as of early afternoon. Other than an area
of isolated/widely sct showers that developed over the Piedmont
earlier (which has since pushed east of the CWA), deep convection
has thus far been slow to initiate, although cumulus is looking
increasingly agitated along the ridge tops, as well as within a
plume of deeper moisture across the Piedmont. Still expect the Blue
Ridge to light up with scattered convection over the next 1-2 hours,
and to be carried SE into the foothills and Piedmont during late
afternoon/early evening. The severe storm threat continues to appear
very muted...owing to the weak shear/modest instability combo.
Locally heavy rainfall will therefore be the primary threat.
Convection will again diminish in the evening, but with the NW flow,
the potential will exist for a few showers to waft into the southern
Appalachians overnight, so a small PoP will be maintained along the
TN border.

With a notable short wave trough expected to cross northern New
England today into tonight, sprawling surface high pressure is
expected to continue invading the northeast quadrant of the Conus
through, allowing a ridge to begin filtering down the Eastern
Seaboard tonight. This is expected to push a back door cold front
into the northern part of the CWA by daybreak Sunday, which will
ooze steadily SW through the day. As such, by the time of peak
heating Sunday afternoon, much of the northeast quadrant of the CWA
is expected to be covered with relatively cool and quite stable air.
Meanwhile, areas to the south and west are forecast to become
moderately unstable, with terrain effects and the front acting as
the primary impetus for initiation of deep convection. The highest
PoPs of 50-60% will again reside along the Blue Ridge, with solid
chances forecast across the Upstate and northeast GA. Even over
locations that will be stable, 20-30 PoPs are warranted to account
for any weakening showers/storms originating from the escarpment.
Forecast shear/instability will continue to limit the severe storm
potential. There may be a slight uptick in the potential for locally
heavy rainfall, especially if any cell training occurs in the
vicinity of the boundary. Temps will remain above normal through the
period, except for near-normal max temps that are expected across
NC's northwest Piedmont and northern foothills Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 137 PM Saturday: Subtropical ridging centered over the Deep
South will gradually shift southeast into Florida through Tuesday.
On the poleward side of the ridge, a series of northern stream
troughs will dive out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Great
Lakes region and Appalachians. The first of these troughs will swing
through New England tomorrow night and send a backdoor cold front
into the region on Monday as surface high pressure slides off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Resulting dry air will keep much of the area dry
on Monday with the greatest diurnally driven rain chances shunted
across far western portions of the area with only a few isolated to
scattered showers east of the mountains. Temperatures will be below
normal with afternoon highs in the 60s to mid 70s.

By Tuesday, any brief dry spell will be short lived as the northern
stream trough reloads with a deep longwave trough axis becoming
established from the Hudson Bay down the spine of the Appalachians.
Several embedded shortwaves will also swing across the southeast
states in conjunction with rapid moisture return as surface high
pressure shifts well offshore and southerly return flow commences.
The 12z suite of global guidance has trended up with rain chances
and will thus reflect a return of chance PoPs on Tuesday with
temperatures also rebounding into the low to upper 70s. 20-30kts of
deep-layer vertical wind shear in the base of the trough could
support loosely organized convection on Tuesday, but confidence in
any severe weather is too low to warrant HWO mention at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 208 PM Saturday: A progressive and unsettled pattern will keep
periodic rain chances in place mid week into next weekend. A
longwave northern stream trough will lift through New England
Wednesday into Thursday with trailing shortwave troughs continuing
to rotate across the Southern Appalachians, thus keeping at least
isolated to scattered diurnally driven rain chances across the area
each day. Timing differences are apparent in guidance by late week
into next weekend, but yet another trough is likely to dive out of
Canada and into the Appalachians bringing another bout of
precipitation. Isolated strong to severe convection cannot be ruled
out with any of these troughs, but confidence in timing and details
is too low to warrant any mention in the HWO at this time.
Temperatures will remain near normal through the period with
afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has been slow to develop across
much of the Terminal Forecast Area so far this afternoon.
Nevertheless, scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop over the
next couple of hours, and VCSH/VCTS, along with tempo TSRA are
included at all sites for 3 or 4 hours this afternoon/evening.
Convection will diminish this evening. A consensus of statistical
guidance indicates low cigs will return late tonight/early Sunday as
moisture remains abundant in the lower levels. However, there's a
considerable degree of uncertainty re: how low cigs will become and
how widespread restrictions will become. Based upon the signals in
guidance, have generally sided with MVFR/IFR cigs developing at most
locations by daybreak, but confidence is low. The other main concern
will be the wind forecast...as S/SW winds of 5-10 kts through this
evening are expected to turn NE beginning overnight into Sunday, as
a backdoor cold front pushes steadily through the area from the
northeast. By early Sunday afternoon, showers and storms are
expected to begin developing across the mountains and in the
vicinity of the front.

Outlook: Mainly scattered/mainly diurnal thunderstorm coverage is
expected Sunday afternoon through Monday. Modest drying should
develop on Tuesday and Wednesday, but with returning afternoon
showers possible mainly in the mountains. Low stratus and fog will
be possible around daybreak each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 13, 2:46 AM EST, 13 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
346 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-140800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
346 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the
higher terrain during the afternoon and move eastward across the
Piedmont and Upstate. The main threats with any of these storms will
be cloud-to-ground lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy
downpours. Small hail cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:41 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Stephens

When
May 13, 4:40 PM EST
Where
Stephens County, 1.58 mi WSW of Toccoa
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
911 Call Center
Coordinates
34.570, -83.345

County comms reported multiple trees blown down near the intersection of Rock Quarry Cir and W Currahee St.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104930.