An upper level trough and surface low was expected to push eastward into the Carolinas through the morning and midday hours. Warm sector conditions for Georgia included 500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE & effective shear >35 kts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
An upper level trough and surface low was expected to push eastward into the Carolinas through the morning and midday hours. Warm sector conditions for Georgia included 500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE & effective shear >35 kts. Mid level lapse rates were expected to exceed 7 C/Km across central GA, indicating further support for damaging winds, hail and a brief tornado being possible. Storm total QPFs of 0.5 to 1.5 were anticipated, with locally higher amounts possible.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 3:50 AM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 450 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Key Messages: - Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this morning with additional rainfall totals of 0.25 to 1.5 inches by midday. - Gusty northwest winds this afternoon should fall just shy of Wind Advisory criteria. - Fire weather conditions may be concern Monday afternoon if fuels dry out. At 430 AM, a surface low was centered along the GA/AL border with an upper level trough evident on satellite over western Alabama. A warm front stretched from west to east across central Georgia. Rainfall was widespread with occasional lightning strikes were being reported from Atlanta southward. The best thunder potential was over southern Georgia in a region of 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE. Precipitation totals over the last 12 hours range were generally in the 0.25 to 1.00 inch range per MRMS data an surface observations. Weather concerns for Today: The upper level trough and surface low will push eastward this morning, reaching the Carolinas by midday. During this time range south Georgia should remain in the warm sector ahead of the storm. This will result in and environment (500-1000 j/kg of MUCAPE & effective shear > 35 kt) favorable for thunderstorm activity. A couple of storms could be on the stronger side, but with CAM soundings suggesting narrow CAPE profiles updraft intensity should be limited. The lower degree of lighting activity in the convection this morning hints at this. North of the warm front instability should be considerably lower. This should result in predominantly a steady rain along the Interstate 20 corridor this morning. Additional rainfall totals of 0.25 to 1.50 inches appear possible this, with the higher totals occurring in central Georgia (including Atlanta). A drier airmass will surge into the region quickly this afternoon. As this occurs surface pressure gradients will tighten resulting in gusty northwest winds this afternoon. While the NBM guidance is typically a bit heated, it tends to preform better with the higher end wind events. Therefore todays wind forecast sticks fairly close to the NBM guidance. This puts us close to Wind Advisory conditions between noon and 5 PM today. However, with forecast sustained winds in the 15 to 22 mph range and peak gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range conditions were just to borderline for the issuance of a Wind Advisory at this time. The day shift can monitor trends and reevaluate this decision around mid-morning. Tonight and Monday: Winds should dissipate quickly this evening as surface pressure gradients relax and diurnal mixing dissipates. Westerly winds will increase again Monday afternoon though they should be a couple mph below todays values. Fire weather conditions could become a concern on Monday with minimum relative humidity values dipping into the 25 to 30 percent range. Whether or not fuels are a concern will depend on how much rain falls today and how fast the 10 hour fuels dry out Monday. For temperatures, Monday should be the coolest day of the week with 60 degree highs along and north of Interstate 20 and 70 degree highs elsewhere. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 As the extended period begins on Monday night, a closed low will be rotating across the Great Lakes with secondary closed low digging southward down the Pacific Coast. Between these two lows will be a high-amplitude ridge over the Central Plains and Rocky Mountains. While these synoptic features will gradually meander southward over the course of the week, guidance remains in good agreement that there will be little movement with these features overall, resulting in a stagnant omega block pattern. The Southeast will be situated near the outer periphery of the broad trough around the closed low over the Great Lakes. Much of the region will also be positioned underneath northwesterly flow in the descending branch of the high- amplitude ridge. Several shortwaves are expected to round the base of the trough to the northeast. However, the persistent northwesterly flow will persistently usher in dry, continental air into the forecast area. Moreover, subsidence will be ongoing through much of the week under a surface high pressure associated with the ridge. As such, there will be little moisture or instability for these shortwave disturbances to work with, with dewpoints mainly in the 30s and low 40s, which will keep rain chances to a minimum through Thursday night. Low temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 40s across the area each morning from Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to range from the mid 60s in far north Georgia to mid 70s in central Georgia. Highs will be warmer on Thursday afternoon as the airmass moderates, increasing into the mid to upper 70s. As fuels dry out and dewpoints stay low, the potential for hazardous fire weather conditions will need to be monitored, as relative humidity values could push critical thresholds each afternoon. By Friday, the low to the northeast will quickly move away into the Atlantic and the ridge over the Central CONUS will begin to break down. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure will move to the east of the area, with southerly low-level flow setting up on the back side of the high. Quick moisture return will follow, with dewpoints increasing back into the upper 40s by Friday afternoon and low 50s by Saturday. PoPs will increase during the daytime on Friday and into Saturday as a mid-level disturbance approaches from the northwest. However, little to no instability is anticipated at this time, and dynamics associated with this system currently appear to be unimpressive, but it will continue to be monitored in the coming days. King && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions (ceilings 600 to 3500 ft AGL and visibility of 1 to 6 SM) due to widespread rainfall will continue in the region through 15Z Sunday. Ceilings and visibility should improve rapidly in the region after 15Z Saturday. Winds will be variable at 10 kt or less through 09Z, then northwesterly winds will develop over the region. Winds should become gusty from the northwest or west between 15Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday. Peak gusts of 25 to 35 kt are anticipated. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Overall confidence in the TAFs is moderate. Confidence in the ceilings, visibility and winds is moderate. Confidence in the rainfall timing is moderate. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 46 68 49 / 80 0 0 0 Atlanta 72 48 68 50 / 60 0 0 0 Blairsville 66 40 61 43 / 40 0 0 0 Cartersville 71 43 67 46 / 30 0 0 0 Columbus 76 49 72 49 / 70 0 0 0 Gainesville 71 47 66 49 / 60 0 0 0 Macon 76 49 72 50 / 90 0 0 0 Rome 71 43 67 45 / 20 0 0 0 Peachtree City 73 45 69 47 / 70 0 0 0 Vidalia 77 52 74 52 / 40 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Albright
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 456 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-010900- Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa- Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta- Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel- Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene- Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson- Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon- Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray- Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach- Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton- Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs- Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren- Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes- Wilkinson- 456 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... Rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue in the region this morning. There is a marginal risk of a severe thunderstorms in southeast Georgia before 10 AM. Should any stronger storms develop, damaging winds would be the main concern. Additional rainfall totals of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are expected. Flooding doesn't look like a significant concern with this additional rainfall. Gusty northwest winds will develop between 11 AM and 7 PM today. Peak winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday... No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 53 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:57 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Received report of a few trees down in the area of Upper Big Springs Rd.
Report of tree down near intersection of Center Hill and Mcculers Rd.
Received report of tree down near Ash St and Davis St.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, April 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1095653, 1095657, 1095659.