Damaging Wind in Florida, May 15, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Current satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over the region
with nothing on current radar. Overall, expect mainly VFR
conditions to prevail. Through the afternoon, as the seabreeze
moves inland, expect scattered shower and storm develop along the
boundary, with the best chance for this potential expected to be
just along and just north of the I-10 corridor. As with any shower
or storm, expect very brief drops in CIGs & VSBYs to MVFR or
below depending on intensity. By the late evening not long after
sunset, expecting any development to diminish. Winds will be
generally southerly behind the seabreeze at all TAF sites during
the afternoon around 5-10kts (20-23Z timeframe). Winds then
transition to light northerly later tonight and overnight (at
times variable to calm). JEH/88

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Through the period, ridging aloft gradually moves out of the
region as it is pushed southward toward the Gulf by a series of
troughs making their way into the eastern CONUS, and with this,
rain chances gradually rise.

Expecting slightly better PoP chances this afternoon and tomorrow
as the ridging pushes south of the region and we become more
moist (on the wetter side of the ridge) due to southwest flow
aloft returning. Still expecting storms to follow a usual
summertime pattern starting along the afternoon seabreeze around
the I-10 corridor then slowly drifting inland as outflow
boundaries collide. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough aloft looks to
approach the region, and weak surface troughing looks to sag into
the area, so we may see a quicker start inland as this occurs
through the day. As with most summertime storms there is a potential
for some gustier winds especially given the weakening ridge will
allow for some deeper storms. However, we are still not expecting
severe gusts through the period.

As for temperatures, this afternoon remains on the hot side as the
ridging still has a grasp over the area before being fully pushed
south on Tuesday. Expect highs this afternoon to climb into the
low to mid 90s area wide (some locations already there).
Additionally, with subsidence aloft still will allow, as the
seabreeze moves inland, dewpoints will climb across the coast
allowing for heat indices to climb into the upper 90s and maybe
approach 100 degrees for the first time. If you like summer heat,
today is the first real taste of it. Be sure to stay hydrated this
afternoon as it will probably feel hotter than it actually is. As
for lows tonight, once again expecting upper 60s to low 70s area-
wide. On Tuesday, highs should cool slightly back into the upper
80s to near 90 with increasing cloud cover and PoP chances
expected earlier in the day. JEH/88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  89  69  84  65  84  66  84 /  40  60  20  60  30  30  10  20
Pensacola   72  86  72  84  69  83  69  82 /  30  50  30  50  30  30  20  20
Destin      74  84  73  84  70  83  69  83 /  30  40  20  40  30  40  20  10
Evergreen   68  89  66  85  62  84  63  84 /  40  70  30  70  20  50  20  20
Waynesboro  68  89  66  84  62  84  64  85 /  30  60  30  70  20  30   0  20
Camden      68  89  65  83  60  83  61  82 /  30  60  30  60  20  40  10  20
Crestview   70  90  68  88  64  86  64  85 /  40  60  20  70  20  50  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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