Rip Current in Florida, June 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
341 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR NE FL BEACHES...

...DANGEROUSLY HOT HEAT INDEX 100-110 DEG THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Afternoon & Tonight...Warm and mostly dry less a brief afternoon
or evening sprinkle inland as the dominant east coast sea breeze
moves inland. There is a chance of isolated showers or a
thunderstorm this evening and overnight across SE GA as an small
MCS over northern GA continues to track southward, with a gradual
decrease in coverage and intensity expected with the loss of
diurnal instability and weakening forcing aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

The persistent upper level ridge across the central Gulf Coast
region begins to break down and shift eastward across the FL
peninsula through Sunday while in the lower levels the surface
ridge across GA shifts southward across the FL peninsula. Rain
chances begin to nudge upward each day as steering flow in the
1000-700 mb layer weakens from NE 10 kts Saturday (a dominant east
coast sea breeze) to variable 5 kts into Sunday as the ridge
builds aloft. Sat, the best chance of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms will focus across inland
areas, with potential enhancement of convection during the late
afternoon and evening as yet another MCS moves southward across
GA. Sunday, both sea breezes will progress inland with diurnal
heating with an increase in PWAT back near 2 inches, with locally
heavy rainfall in scattered inland storms possible. The main
convective hazard from any resultant storms this weekend will be
gusty wet downburst potential given steep low level lapse rates
Saturday and precip loading potential on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Hot and humid conditions continue as broad mid/upper level ridging
lingers over the FL peninsula and weak troughs continues north of
the region. This regime will bring a generally light SW steering
flow over the local area with near to above normal deep layer
moisture. Expect a return to near to above normal daily
thunderstorm coverage with a more dominant west coast sea breeze
storm pattern.

Temperatures...Above normal highs will continue from the mid/upper
90s inland to low/mid 90s at the coast with muggy overnight lows
in the upper 60s inland to mid 70s coast through the next week.
The peak of the heat is expected Sunday and Monday when near
record highs will be possible as highs near the triple digits.
Temps trend down slightly into next week with increased
storminess, but with the 500 mb ridge over the FL peninsula, above
normal values will continue. Heat index values in the low to mid
100s will continue through mid-week, with heat advisory conditions
(heat index 108-112 deg F) still anticipated by Sunday and
possibly continuing through mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

VFR conditions will prevail across area TAF sites through tonight
and into 18Z Saturday with exception of some MVFR fog at VQQ between
08Z-12Z late tonight. Light easterly winds behind the seabreeze of
8-10 knots will become light and variable after 02Z-03Z post sunset.
Few clouds between 4.0-6.0 kft under few high thin cirrus will settle
to 3.0-4.0 kft by Saturday morning, with winds near calm inland
turning clockwise south to southwesterly early morning at the coast
before easterly Atlantic seabreeze winds arrive Saturday afternoon.
Shower and storm chances too include for Saturday afternoon as of
this package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

High pressure over the southeast states today will shift south and
extend across the Florida peninsula Saturday and Sunday. A front
will linger across Georgia Monday through Wednesday which will
bring a stormier weather pattern across the local waters.

Rip Currents: High risk for NE FL beaches today. Moderate risk for
SE GA beaches today and all beaches Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Daily record high temperatures and occurrence year for our official climates:

DATE    SAT 7/01     SUN 7/02    MON 7/3
-----------------------------------------
JAX      100         100          99
        (1990)      (1902)       (2019)

CRG      102         100          98
        (1998)      (1998)      (1998)

GNV      99          99          101
        (1902)      (1902)      (1902)

SSI      101         97           97
        (1998)      (2019)      (2014)

AMG      100         99          101
        (1990)      (2019)      (2019)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  73  98  76 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  90  77  92  78 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  93  73  95  74 /  10  10  20  10
SGJ  89  74  90  73 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  95  72  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  95  71  95  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&