A long period easterly ocean swell that originated from former Tropical Storm Cindy combined with breezy onshore winds to keep a higher end moderate risk in place at northeast Florida beaches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A long period easterly ocean swell that originated from former Tropical Storm Cindy combined with breezy onshore winds to keep a higher end moderate risk in place at northeast Florida beaches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 7:06 AM EST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
806 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
No changes in update with mostly sunny skies and hot conditions.
Full heating with drier air aloft will cause surface dew points to
drop into mid-upper 60s, which will help keep afternoon heat
index values in the 96-100 range.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Hot and dry day once again. Ridging over the lower MS river
valley continues to expand eastward across the SE US. Developing
deep north- northeasterly flow will maintain the unseasonably dry
air mass (PWATs around 1.0 - 1.2 in) over the area today. Breezy
onshore winds will develop this afternoon in the wake of the
Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland keeping highs along the
immediate coast in the upper 80s to low 90s. Highs further inland
will rise into the mid to upper 90s. Dry air will mix down with
dewpoints dropping into the 60s during the afternoon hours at
inland locations. This drier air mass will help to keep maximum
heat index values closer to 100 degrees, which is well below Heat
Advisory criteria. Onshore flow this afternoon will bring a slight
increase in low level moisture to the I-95 corridor. Patchy fog
will be possible in the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Friday and into the weekend the dominant upper ridge over the lower
Mississippi valley will flatten and undergo slight weakening as an
upstream trough digs into the Southern Plains. This will nudge the
stout ridge southeastward and right overhead by Sunday. A prevailing
and breezy northeasterly flow developing between the ridge and a
coastal trough offshore will gradually raise available moisture
through the weekend.
On Friday, a subtle impulse will ride along the periphery of the
upper ridge, developing an MCS to the north during the afternoon and
the remnants of the decaying MCS may graze portions of inland SE GA
as it dives south-southwestward during the overnight hours Friday
into Saturday.
With the further moisture increases over the weekend, instability
will build enough to sufficiently support widely scattered
thunderstorms along the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes. Storm scale
or outflow interaction could lead to a few strong afternoon storms,
but potential for severe thunderstorms is low. Given the strongly
subsident airmass, coverage will be isolated to scattered through
the weekend.
The main highlight over the weekend will be the rising heat index
values, likely requiring a Heat Advisory by Sunday. Though afternoon
highs have been toned down a bit compared to previous forecasts,
heat index is progged to rise from the upper 90s Friday (due to
drier airmass) toward upper 100s and as high as 110 by Sunday. Extra
precaution will need to be taken, particularly for the heat
sensitive groups. Understandably folks will want to spend time
outdoors during the Holiday weekend, just be sure to limit that
outdoor time, have a cool place to recover, and stay hydrated!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Dominant upper ridging will shift southeastward and coalesce with an
expansive ridge over the Atlantic next week. The resultant ridge
will extend its axis across southern FL, allowing a fairly deep
southwesterly flow to develop and spread high-grade moisture into
the area through next week. Grand ensemble (GEFS, EPS, and CMC)
plumes generally agree a shift to a much wetter pattern, with an
extended period of anomalous deep moisture (2"+ PWATs) beginning
Monday and continuing through the end of next week. Given the high
confidence, bumped up thunderstorm chances to likely during the
afternoon hours next week; convection will largely be driven by
afternoon sea breeze development as the expansive ridge axis over FL
should deflect shortwaves to the north.
Elevated heat levels will continue under the influence of the ridge
through next week. There is some uncertainty in the level of heat
next week as rain chances increases and cloudier skies develop;
however, southwesterly flow and strong heating will lead to above
normal temps (mid to upper 90s) and heat index pushing into the mid
and upper 100s all the way to the beaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Mostly clear skies next 24hrs. Easterly flow 8-10kts develops
during the late morning and afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023
A weakening frontal boundary positioned across the northeast
Florida waters will stall and dissipate by Friday. Weak surface
high pressure passes by to the north developing northeasterly
winds across our local waters through Friday. Atlantic high
pressure will then build westward towards the Florida peninsula
this weekend, resulting in prevailing southerly winds. This
feature will then shift southward early next week, with prevailing
southwesterly flow expected through Independence Day. Chances for
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will gradually
increase beginning on Sunday, with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms possible by midweek.
Rip Currents: A long period easterly ocean swell originating from
former Tropical Storm Cindy will gradually fade through the
upcoming weekend. This swell will combine with breezy onshore
winds to keep a higher end moderate risk in place through Friday,
especially at the northeast FL beaches.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
A table of daily high temperature records and year of occurrence
for each of our designated climate sites is listed below for
through Sunday.
DATE THU 6/29 FRI 6/30 SAT 7/01 SUN 7/02
--------------------------------------------------
JAX 100 100 100 100
(1998) (1990) (1990) (1902)
CRG 101 102 102 100
(1998) (1998) (1998) (1998)
GNV 101 100 99 99
(1998) (1898) (1902) (1902)
SSI 99 100 101 97
(1959) (1998) (1998) (2019)
AMG 100 99 100 99
(1998) (1998) (1990) (2019)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 96 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 93 77 91 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 95 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 92 74 89 73 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 96 71 95 71 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 96 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Fernandina Beach lifeguards reported strong rip currents in the surf zone. Three rescues occurred before noon. NWS JAX upgraded to a rip current risk later in the day.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104519.