Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 29, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

As an upper-level ridge axis slides eastward, a weak boundary
remains stalled over North Central Florida. In response, a fairly
light ENE flow remains in place across the peninsula. With such a
light flow, the West Coast sea breeze has become evident on
satellite imagery. A few storms are beginning to initiate along the
boundary around the Tampa Bay Area.

Once again, hot and muggy conditions persist with temperatures
continuing to climb into the 90s. With high dewpoint values (mid-to-
upper 70s), heat indices are again flirting with Heat Advisory
criteria today. However, spots exceeding this threshold are largely
isolated and are looking at the potential for thunderstorms in the
next hour or so. Given current trends and expectations over the next
couple hours, we've held off on a Heat Advisory for the day.
Regardless, it is Florida in late June. It is hot. It is muggy. Many
places are seeing heat indices greater than 100 degrees. It doesn't
take long for the heat to take it's toll, particularly on residents
and visitors not used to this kind of weather. It is important to
practice good heat safety throughout the summer.

Looking ahead to tomorrow and Saturday, conditions look a little
less humid with the weak boundary sinking farther south. However,
temperatures don't get any cooler - and are likely to increase
slightly. With the ever-so-slight reduction in humidity with lower
dewpoints, it does keep the heat indices closer to 100 tomorrow and
Saturday. So even though it is actually hotter, it may feel just a
little better than today. Unfortunately, the reduction in moisture
means lower rain chances areawide. Outside the southern interior and
SWFL, rain chances are pretty much nonexistent. Even for these
southern areas, coverage is likely to me more isolated in Nature.

As Saturday turns into Sunday and Sunday turns into next week, we
are FINALLY setting up into a true summertime pattern. The
subtropical ridge axis begins to take control and high pressure to
the east of the FL peninsula should eventually lead to an ESE flow,
with the typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
setting up each day. The best, consistent, potential for coastal
areas still dealing with abnormally dry conditions to see regular
rains should accompany this change - a welcome one after a fairly
dry June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop around terminals in the Tampa
Bay area, with the potential for VCTS and TEMPO impacts in the next
few hours for SWFL terminals as well. KLAL is the only terminal
favored to remain dry through the period, but TSTM impacts tomorrow
look far lower overall, with some potential after 18Z for SWFL
terminals only as a drier ENE flow dominates after today and
continues into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Coastal storms developing along sea breeze boundaries could briefly
drift offshore during the next few hours creating locally hazardous
marine conditions. However, the next couple days look drier overall
with a light ENE flow in place through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening from Tampa
Bay southward, particularly along the coast. Gusty and erratic winds
are possible in the vicinity. Otherwise, relatively drier but warm
conditions continue into the weekend. Despite this, RH values remain
above critical thresholds, so no red flag concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  95  76  97  77 /  40  20  10   0
FMY  95  76  94  77 /  70  40  60  30
GIF  95  72  94  72 /  30  10  20   0
SRQ  94  74  97  75 /  50  20  20  10
BKV  97  69  97  70 /  20   0  10   0
SPG  93  79  94  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery