High moisture and SW steering flow fueled scattered strong to pulse severe storms along boundary mergers during the afternoon and early evening. PWAT was near 2 inches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
High moisture and SW steering flow fueled scattered strong to pulse severe storms along boundary mergers during the afternoon and early evening. PWAT was near 2 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 8:30 AM EST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
930 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
Forecast remains on track. Moist airmass (PWAT = 1.85 in.) and
strong diurnal heating will allow for heat indices to rise to the
105-109 degree range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through
this evening across SE GA and NE FL. Weak west- southwesterly flow
today will allow the Gulf coast sea breeze to shift further
inland and merge with the Atlantic coast sea breeze between the
HWY 301 and I-95 corridors. Warm temps aloft will limit severe
thunderstorm development but strong wind gusts from wet downbursts
could be possible along boundary collisions.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
A Heat Advisory will be in effect across northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia from 11am to 7pm. Higher heat indices ranging
from 108 to 110 are expected for locations near and eastward of
Highway US-301, while our western areas can expect to see heat
indices in the 106 to 108 range.
Incoming moisture from the Gulf will see PWAT values rising to near
2.00 on Monday. As the Gulf breeze moves inland, scattered to
numerous storms may develop along the boundary with the Atlantic
coast seabreeze east of Highway US-301 near the St Johns river
basin by the mid afternoon hours and into the early evening.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 70s for inland
areas, while coastal locations will see lows getting near the 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
High pressure ridge axis at the surface and aloft shifting just
south of the region will allow for a more West to Southwest
steering flow this period with a slow increase in rainfall chances
each day from 30-50% on Tuesday to 40-60% on Wednesday. The
steering flow will keep the East Coast sea breeze closer to the
Atlantic Coast with merger of both sea breeze fronts close to the
US 301 corridor on Tuesday and shifting further east to the US 17
corridor on Wednesday with the upper level flow pattern drifting
storms back closer to the I-95 corridor on Tuesday and even all
the way to the beaches on Wednesday. The W-SW flow pattern and
delayed start to convection each day will still support Max Temps
into the mid/upper 90s inland and lower/middle 90s at the beaches,
which will still push Heat indices into the 106-110 range and Heat
Advisories will likely be needed both days, especially from the US
301 corridor eastward towards the Atlantic Coast as dew point
temps behind the sea breeze are well into the mid/upper 70s. With
the extreme daytime heating and low level instability, isolated
strong/severe storms will be possible both days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
Ridge axis shifts well south of the region and more substantial
troughing sets up over the SE US states and this will shift the
steering flow back towards a wetter Southwest flow pattern and
increasing daily rainfall chances into the 50-70% range, with
scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly during the
afternoon/evening hours. These increased rainfall chances and
southwest flow pattern will shift Max Temps slightly downward into
the lower to middle 90s with heat indices still topping out around
105 degrees. Rainfall totals will start to add up through the long
term period with widespread totals of at least 1-2 inches with
locally higher 2-4 inch amounts and urban flooding issues during
heavy storm activity will likely become an issue again by the
weekend time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
Light west-southwesterly winds this morning will shift to
southeasterly and increase to around 10 kts after 18Z for all
sites except GNV as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the TAF sites
this afternoon. The best chance for thunderstorms will be the JAX
metro sites due to the anticipated sea breeze merger between the
HWY 301 and I-95 corridors. Have TEMPOs in to cover this.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
Some storms will be possible for the coastal waters from 18Z to
23Z on Monday. A lingering front over Georgia will begin to make
its way southward through midweek. Ahead of the front, showers and
thunderstorms are expected over local waters through the end of
the upcoming week. Seas will mainly be in the 2-3 ft range through
midweek.
Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of Rip Currents expected through the
4th of July Holiday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 96 75 96 74 / 30 30 30 30
SSI 94 79 93 79 / 40 20 30 20
JAX 97 75 97 76 / 40 20 40 20
SGJ 93 76 95 76 / 20 10 30 10
GNV 97 74 97 74 / 30 30 40 10
OCF 96 74 97 74 / 30 30 50 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-
030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-
232-236-237-240-325-340-425.
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...None.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1027 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 PM Rip Currents 1 ENE Fernandina Beach 30.67N 81.43W
07/02/2023 AMZ452 FL Lifeguard
Fernandina Beach lifeguards had 5 rip
current rescues yesterday, 7/2, before 2 pm.
The was a high rip current risk in effect.
Surf heights were 2-3 ft.
&&
abePreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1240 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0949 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 ESE West Green 31.60N 82.68W
07/02/2023 Coffee GA Public
Pictures shared on social media of minor
damage to a barn with sheet metal roofing
scattered around and fencing toppled over
along John Moore Road. Maximum winds
estimated up to 55 mph.
&&
KBThe Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 119 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:10 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Flagler Ocean Rescue saved 2 people from rip currents at 3100 South Oceanshore in Gamble Rodgers Park. There was a moderate rip current risk in effect.
Wind gusts damaged utility equipment near Marion Park. The time of damage was based on radar.
Trees were blown down near Ford Avenue, just NW of the Jacksonville Zoo. The time of damage was based on radar.
Utility equipment was damaged by strong winds along Spring Park Road. The time of damage was based on radar data.
Strong thunderstorm winds damaged utility equipment from Mandarin to Switzerland along State Road 13 (San Jose Blvd). The time of damage was based on radar.
A tree was blown down onto a home off of San Jose Blvd near Julington Creek bridge. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106281, 1106272, 1106273, 1106274, 1106275, 1106276.