Broad troughing was in the low and mid levels across the region with prevailing SW flow and above normal moisture content over the local area. High DCAPE over 1000 J/kg favored wet downbursts in stronger cells.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Broad troughing was in the low and mid levels across the region with prevailing SW flow and above normal moisture content over the local area. High DCAPE over 1000 J/kg favored wet downbursts in stronger cells.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 3:19 PM EST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 419 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE... ...MUCH DRIER NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR TUE-THU WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT... .NEAR TERM... through Tonight... Issued at 414 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Pre-frontal convection will continue drift south and east across SE GA from roughly a Jesup to Homerville line through late afternoon and early evening under a passing mid level short wave. There has been further destabilization across the Suwannee River Valley this afternoon since morning convection passed through, and anticipate a convergence of forcing mechanisms under upper level lift across the I-10 corridor and JAX metro areas southward down the St. Johns River basin through the early evening. The main hazards from storms will be gusty downburst wind potential as drier mid/upper level infiltrates cores from the WNW and increases DCAPE, with blasts of locally heavy rainfall and jumps in excessive lightning at times. Precip will steadily press to the ESE with precip ceasing across SE GA from NW to SE through 9 pm with only straggling light rain or showers across NE FL through midnight as the surface front/pre-frontal trough axis lingers across N FL through daybreak Tuesday. A cooler, drier more stable WNW flow in the wake of the front will drop lows into the upper 60s to low 70s across parts of SE GA with some shallow ground fog potential. Farther south, a more moist, westerly flow off of the Gulf will keep low temps in the mid/upper 70s south of I-10. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 414 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Synopsis...The best rain chances will focus across NE FL each day with mostly dry conditions and soaring heat across SE GA and north of the I-10 corridor across NE FL with near record high temperatures possible and near record high minimum temperatures especially for coastal areas. The weak surface front will settle near the I-10 corridor early Tuesday trailed by a much drier airmass across SE Georgia under WNW steering flow as PWAT falls well below normal near 1.2 inches. Westerly steering flow and high moisture with PWAT near 2 inches will bring morning convection inland from the GOMEX toward Gilchrist and Marion counties, with further expansion of precipitation east and northward into the afternoon with diurnal heating. The east coast sea breeze will develop north of morning convective clouds streaming across central FL, with an afternoon and evening sea breeze merger across the interior of the forecast area, with limited convective growth into the evening as drier, more subsident mid level airmass settles across the area. Precip will quickly fade after sunset across NE FL with dry conditions overnight and shallow patchy fog inland. Wednesday, the mid/upper level ridge builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states with drier air expanding southward across NE FL as the low level ridge builds across central FL. A weak steering flow will enable both sea breezes to develop and drift inland through the day with a merger between I-75 and Highway 301 in the late afternoon/early evening which could result in scattered showers and storms mainly across NE FL. Temperatures will begin to rise back above normal values with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 inland by mid-week. These hot temperatures combined with humidity will create heat index values around 105 degF. Overnight lows will range in the mid/upper 70s inland to near 80 toward the coast. Record highs and record high minimums are possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 414 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Thu/Fri...The mid/upper level ridge axis across the Gulf Coast states shifts south of the area which begins to enable short waves riding across the NE side of the ridge periphery to begin to swing southward across GA. This passing energy and rising moisture will bring slowly increasing rain chances across SE GA while continuing to focus the higher diurnally driven rain chances across NE FL due to sea breezes. Above normal temps continue. Sat-Mon...A transition to a stormier WSW steering flow pattern into the weekend as the next long wave eastern CONUS trough deepens and higher moisture content returns across the area. A stronger west coast sea breeze regime is expected with convection blossoming west to east through the day with diurnal enhancement. Temps will trend downward toward climo values given increased storminess. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Early start to storms with the bulk of them already passed through GNV. This current round will affect SGJ by 18Z and be in the vicinity of the JAX metro sites. Storm coverage increases along the coastal TAF sites this afternoon into evening. Have TEMPOs in to cover gusty winds and visibility restrictions due to heavy rainfall. Outside of storms, winds will generally be southwesterly between 5-10 kts. A few storms will linger near the sites through 03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A surface trough will drift south across Georgia tonight and linger across north Florida Tuesday. High pressure across south Florida will build northward Wednesday across central Florida and linger through Thursday. The high will begin to shift back south Friday into Saturday as a front moves southward across Georgia. As the front approaches, the strength of nocturnal southwest wind surges increases beginning Thursday night. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is expected through Tuesday with a mix of moderate to longer period swells in the local waters. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 414 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Record high temperatures for climate sites are listed below. The existing record is listed as well as the year it was set. SITE 7/18 7/19 7/20 JAX 100/1887 101/2000 103/2000 GNV 100/1899 101/1899 100/1942 AMG 102/2000 102/2002 104/2000 SSI 97/1986 102/1986 104/1986 CRG 98/1981 99/1993 100/2000 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 72 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 SSI 90 78 96 80 / 50 20 10 0 JAX 92 75 97 76 / 80 60 20 10 SGJ 90 75 94 76 / 70 60 30 10 GNV 90 75 95 75 / 50 30 30 20 OCF 88 75 93 75 / 50 20 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
FLZ023-024-124-125-225-425-GAZ165-166-264-350-364-172030-
Baker FL-Western Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-Trout River FL-
Coastal Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-Northeastern Charlton GA-
Inland Camden GA-Western Charlton GA-Coastal Camden GA-
Southern Ware GA-
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Nassau, northeastern
Baker, northern Duval, southern Camden, southeastern Ware and
southeastern Charlton Counties through 430 PM EDT...
At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near St. Marys to 6 miles north of St. George.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Kingsland, Fernandina Beach, Hilliard, Callahan,
Jacksonville International Arpt, Kings Bay Base, Yulee, Kings Ferry
and Cisco Gardens.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3027 8207 3074 8230 3088 8155 3075 8142
3043 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 323DEG 23KT 3075 8162 3061 8208
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
PKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
GAZ152-250-264-364-172045-
Northeastern Charlton GA-Western Charlton GA-Brantley GA-
Northern Ware GA-
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Brantley, east central Ware and north central Charlton Counties
through 445 PM EDT...
At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Braganza, or 7 miles southeast of Waycross, moving southeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Winds around 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Braganza, Boggy Bay, Race Pond and Fort Mudge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3122 8231 3122 8226 3110 8198 3086 8222
3110 8244 3123 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 308DEG 16KT 3112 8231
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
357 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
FLZ023-122-GAZ163-350-364-172045-
Baker FL-Northern Columbia FL-Clinch GA-Western Charlton GA-
Southern Ware GA-
357 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Baker,
northeastern Columbia, south central Ware, southeastern Clinch and
south central Charlton Counties through 445 PM EDT...
At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Taylor, or 13 miles southeast of Fargo, moving
southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Taylor and St. George.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3048 8263 3067 8242 3052 8202 3027 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 299DEG 21KT 3055 8239
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
PKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
429 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
FLZ024-124-125-225-325-425-172115-
Western Duval FL-South Central Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-
Trout River FL-Coastal Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-
429 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Nassau and
Duval Counties through 515 PM EDT...
At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Callahan, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Callahan, Jacksonville International Arpt, Arlington,
Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Mayport, Cisco Gardens, Ortega and
Craig Field.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3019 8183 3019 8188 3054 8202 3066 8175
3060 8153 3044 8137 3034 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 307DEG 19KT 3055 8179
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
443 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
GAZ136-151>154-165-172130-
Pierce GA-Inland Glynn GA-Inland Camden GA-Coastal Glynn GA-
Brantley GA-Wayne GA-
443 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Camden,
west central Glynn, east central Pierce, eastern Brantley and
southwestern Wayne Counties through 530 PM EDT...
At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Raybon, or 12 miles northeast of Nahunta, moving
southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nahunta, Offerman, Thalmann, Raybon, Waynesville, Atkinson, Hortense
and Broadhurst.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3105 8194 3142 8212 3153 8181 3114 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 333DEG 23KT 3136 8189
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
PKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
450 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
FLZ021-023-030-031-122-136-222-236-172145-
Eastern Alachua FL-Southern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-Baker FL-
Union FL-Suwannee FL-Bradford FL-Northern Columbia FL-
450 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Bradford, north central Alachua, southern Baker, Union, central
Columbia and east central Suwannee Counties through 545 PM EDT...
At 450 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Columbia, or 7 miles south of Lake City, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Lake Butler, Raiford, Worthington Spring, Ichetucknee
Spring, Columbia, Glen St. Mary, Worthington Springs, Palestine
Community and Groves.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2997 8283 3030 8277 3028 8214 2981 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 295DEG 22KT 3009 8265
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PKThe Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:50 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down. The time of the event was based on radar. The cost of the event damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Trees were blown down. The time of the event was based on radar. The cost of the event damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Trees were blown down. The time of damage was based on radar data. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Trees were blown down. The time of the event was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Numerous trees and power lines were blown down across the northwest and western portions of the county. The time of damage was based on radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1107909, 1107910, 1107907, 1107908, 1107906.