Rip Current in Florida, February 25, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1238 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

No major changes to the forecast this morning. Fog has generally
lifted and visibilities are improving. Isolated areas of patchy
fog around 1 to 3 miles remains but the trends are for improving
visibilities in the next hour or two. Stratus will slowly lift
through the next few hours and by the early afternoon we'll see
breaks in the clouds develop and greater coverage of sunshine
move in. This will allow temperatures to warm into the forecast
highs of the low 80s. Stratus could be a little more stubborn in
portions of southwest Georgia north and east of the I-75 corridor
which is why temps are a few degrees lower there.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 418 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Anomalously strong ridging maintains its unrelenting grip across the
region, with accompanying surface high pressure in place. These
features will keep abnormally warm conditions around and
foggy/cloudy skies from the overnight through early-morning hours.
Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows nearly the entire
service area blanketed by an extensive stratus deck that has some
embedded fog, some of which is dense. Currently, the most adversely
affected locations are along the immediate coast, southeast AL, and
portions of southwest GA. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10
AM EST everywhere except east and north of our lower first row of GA
counties. Trends will continue to be monitored for any potential
northward expansions. Conditions should improve by mid-to-late
morning.

Afternoon temperatures look to climb into the mid-low 80s, which
will challenge daily record highs once again. Today's forecast of
85F at Tallahassee would break the previous record of 84F set in
1977. Valdosta also has a chance to break or tie its record of 86F
from 2022. Overall, we are looking at slightly "cooler" readings
compared to yesterday thanks to modest upper height falls from a
nearby front. Modeled 500-mb heights range from 589-591 dm; a couple
ticks lower than the 593 dm from the 0224 12Z KTAE sounding. Aside
from the warmth, mostly dry weather prevails, though a few light
showers may graze the northernmost counties.

Another round of fog/low stratus is expected late tonight into
tomorrow morning. The forecast is reflective of persistence based on
the previous two days where initial formation is along the coast,
then slowly advects inland. Dense fog is likely again, especially
over our FL counties. Meanwhile, low temperatures drop to around 60.
Upper 50s cannot be ruled as MOS guidance is nearly unanimous in
showing those values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 418 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Sunday should start off with stratus and fog as high pressure
continues its hold over the region. Another day of high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s is forecast, with communities
along the coast being a few degrees less. For those looking for a
touch of relief, low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning
is where it is at. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to low
60s, with fog and stratus being possible again Come Monday, a
quick moving shortwave will pass well to our north. Breezy
southwesterly winds around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 to 35
mph are expected. Rain chances look to be non existent for much
of the service area at this point; however, our northern most GA
and AL counties might get lucky and see a few showers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

As the shortwave exits the region late Monday into Tuesday, high
pressure builds in for a brief period on Wednesday. Ensemble
guidance shows the ridge holding while an upper level low slides
down the intermountain west into the southern plains. By the end
of the work week, ensembles have this trough pushing the ridge
east which should lead to a pattern change. Our next impactful
event could stem from this; however, it's too early to say how and
when just yet. NBM and deterministic models show precip chances
increasing Thursday into Friday, but this will likely change as we
get closer to the event.

High temperatures for this period will generally be in the low to
mid 80s, while overnight lows sit in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Low stratus is eroding from around all terminals except ABY which
remains socked in the low stratus. Confidence is low on how
quickly clouds erode from ABY, but do think eventually cigs will
lift to VFR there. All sites return to IFR/LIFR tonight with
another round of low stratus and fog. The most restricted vsbys
and cigs will be at DHN, ECP, and TLH. Confidence in dense fog
developing at ABY and VLD is low, but do expect at least some fog
around the terminals. Guidance is a bit more bullish on skies
scouring in the morning after the fog, but have left SCT020 decks
in just in case given the pattern the last couple mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Sea fog and low cloud remain in the forecast this morning, with
conditions being most favorable around Apalachee Bay. Conditions
should improve by the early afternoon hours. Sea fog will remain
possible through the weekend as high pressure becomes centered
over the northeast Gulf. Winds will range from merely light to
gentle breezes; however, winds will increase out of the southwest
ahead of an approaching front early next week. Cautionary conditions

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 418 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Fog continues to be the primary fire concern for at least another
couple days. After the fog/low stratus clears by mid-late morning,
somewhat brisk westerly transport winds combined with deep mixing
heights will lead to pockets of high afternoon dispersions near the
FL/AL border and east of the lower I-75 corridor tomorrow. Portions
of southwest GA are forecast to see high dispersions Sunday
afternoon. Mostly dry weather prevails through the weekend, but min
RH remain above critical thresholds. By Monday, a weak front pushes
through the region and may squeeze out a few showers. However, the
main impact is expected to be breezy southwest winds that prompt
more widespread high afternoon dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 418 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Little to no rain is forecast this week. Therefore there are no
flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  85  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  75  64  76 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        61  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        60  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  85  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  83  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  74  62  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...KR