Rip Current in Florida, April 7, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

Current observations and imagery show varying conditions across
the forecast area generally in the IFR/MVFR for areas along and
northwest of I-65, with VFR/MVFR southeast. A weak front will
continue sagging south into the area through tonight and
conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR across the
area, potentially even lower overnight into the early morning
hours as precipitation coverage increases. Currently, there are
also a few scattered showers and storms spread out over the area,
and given the uncertainty of coverage, could see a pop up shower
over any TAF sites through tonight with a slim possibly of a
rumble of thunder. As of now, timing continues to remain a bit
uncertain as to when this front when finally push out of the
region, however, current guidance shows the greatest chance for
shower and storm development to be during the early morning hours,
particularly affecting PNS/JKA more heavily. Trends will be
monitored and likely updated through the night as the forecast
becomes more refined. Winds will be generally variable around 5
knots or less through tonight, becoming northeasterly after
sunrise around 5 to 10 knots. JEH/88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

A series of upper level shortwaves move northeast across the
southeast CONUS through the Near Term Period as a very slow moving
surface cold front stretching southwest to northeast just to the
west of our forecast area sags southeast across our area. Southeast
to southerly low to mid level flow will lift up and over the frontal
boundary with associated isentropic upglide producing rain and
showers, and with just enough instability aloft, perhaps a few
embedded thunderstorms as well along and north of the boundary. This
area of precipitation will shift southeast with the front tonight,
with the front stalling near the coast late tonight into early
Saturday morning.

For the rest of this afternoon most of the heavy rainfall should
stay just to the west of our forecast area, but a few showers and
storms may develop along the coastal areas where more of an east-
southeast low level flow will bring dewpoints into the low 70s.
Can't completely rule out a stronger storm or two developing near
the coast with some enhanced mid level flow there, and we will have
to monitor for this possibility late this afternoon and this
evening. However, at this time we expect coverage should be rather
low. Otherwise, over inland areas a more northerly low level flow
will lower the possibility of a stronger storm there.

Later into the evening and overnight, as the front and associated
lift moves into our area, rain chances will begin to increase,
especially for our MS zones. This activity will then spread east
across the remainder of our forecast area during the day on
Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall could be possible, especially
late tonight and Saturday. There is still concern of some possible
flooding issues issues along and north of the boundary, as it will
be moving rather slowly due to mainly being perpendicular to the
overall low to mid level flow. Although some heavy rainfall is
possible, coverage and QPF totals as of now don't look great enough
to warrant a watch, but we will monitor closely as conditions could
become more supportive.

Fog redevelopment for tonight remains a challenge, especially with
the westward extent. While we are expecting fog to redevelop across
our area overnight, models suggest that the greatest potential for
dense fog may be east of our forecast area. Widespread development
restricting visibilities to the 1-4 mile range is likely, however.
The more likely area of development to the east of our area makes
sense due to widespread mid and low level cloud cover and some
mixing with the precipitation that is expected to be moving into the
area overnight. As such we will hold off on issuing a dense fog
advisory at this time.

Low temperatures tonight should range from the mid 50s north of
Highway 84, low 60s north of I-10, and then mid 60s down along the
coast. Highs on Saturday will be a bit cooler than today due to
continued cloud cover as well as widespread rainfall, only reaching
in the mid 60s to lower 70s (down toward the coast).

With the onshore flow bringing continued swell to area beaches
combined with a large tidal cycle, a high risk of rip currents is
still possible through early Saturday morning. As the front stalls
near the coast, onshore swell decreases and the Rip Current risk
decreases to moderate for the weekend. /12

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

Rain chances will temporarily end as the pesky front finally
pushes offshore. Zonal westerly flow will persist through the
end of the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the Ohio
River valley. Temperatures will be cooler and with no rain it will
feel rather refreshing after the several weeks of well above
normal temperatures. Nothing really happens through Monday night
as the next system likely doesn't arrive until Tuesday. BB/03

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

The best way to explain Tuesday through Friday is...A MESS! This
kinds of forecast only come from the nightmares of meteorologist
as a rather large upper level low is expected to cutoff over the
southeast. That is about all we have confidence in that there
will be a rather large low somewhere near the northern Gulf.
Models are all over the place on where this low will set up, how
strong it will get, how much rain we get and when the rain
arrives. The best blend keeps the best rain chances mainly
confined along the coast which would make sense with the rather
large ridge trying to build over top this low. However, with the
ridge building over top, the upper low will likely meander for
several days which could lead to an increased flooding rain threat
as moisture continues to funnel in. So while we really don't know
specifics right now and a ton of uncertainty exists for next
week, guidance at least supports a rather soggy and cloudy week
ahead. The rest of the details will likely come into light as the
weekend progresses. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through
tonight but becomes more easterly on Saturday. A stronger
northeasterly flow develops Saturday night into Sunday as a cold
front pushes south of the area. Fog development is possible late
each night into the early morning hours over the near shore waters
and bays and sounds before the front moves through, but conditions
improve thereafter. Some of the fog could be dense at times. Winds
and seas will likely increase Sunday through midweek, initially in
the wake of the front, but models indicate the possibility of Gulf
low pressure developing somewhere over the northern Gulf by the
middle part of next week which could increase winds and seas even
further. Models have been somewhat inconsistent in how this scenario
develops, but we will continue to monitor as to how it develops. For
now we are forecasting the likelihood of SCA conditions by Sunday
night and continuing through at least Wednesday. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  73  55  68  55  69  56  72 /  90  90  20  10  10  20  20  30
Pensacola   67  74  56  68  55  68  58  72 /  70 100  40  10  10  20  20  20
Destin      66  74  56  69  56  69  59  73 /  50  90  50  10  10  20  20  20
Evergreen   59  68  49  67  49  69  51  73 /  80 100  30  10  10  10  10  10
Waynesboro  57  67  51  67  51  68  51  73 /  90  90  10   0  10  10  10  10
Camden      57  63  49  67  49  67  48  72 /  90  90  20  10  10  10  10  10
Crestview   62  73  51  69  50  69  53  75 /  50  90  40  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob