Rip Current in Florida, April 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
707 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Patchy light fog will lift quickly this morning, and additional
patchy to areas of fog will reform late tonight with LIFR to IFR
level visibilities possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail along with light westerly winds. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Dry conditions will persist through tonight as a surface low
pressure area across the Ohio River region lifts northward and a
dry airmass advects into the region, with PWATs lowering to
between 1.5"-1.8" throughout the day. Patchy fog early this
morning will lift quickly with high temperatures ranging from 80
to 85 degrees. A weak frontal boundary associated with the surface
low pushing through the area today will stall near the coast
tonight. Patchy to areas of radiational fog, possible dense, will
develop overnight in this post- frontal environment along and
south of a line from New Augusta MS to Luverne AL. Especially with
the soils being saturated due to yesterday's heavy rainfall, and
a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later today or this evening.
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s inland, and low to
mid 60s closer to the coast.

The next upper trough will quickly dive southeastward over the
central and southern Great Plains tonight and cut off from the jet
stream by late tonight. This will allow an upper closed low
pressure center to form over northeast Texas that will drop
southeast over central Louisiana by the end of the near term. A
low pressure system looks to develop Saturday morning over the
northwestern Gulf in association with the lead shortwave trough.
By Saturday afternoon, stall boundary will lift northward as a
warm front as a surface low develops underneath the cutoff upper
low and moves eastward along the northern Gulf Coast.

The environment will quickly moisten and destabilize, with PWATs
increasing to 1.5 to 1.8 inches and CAPE values increasing to
around 1300-1800 J/kg. Plenty of forcing will be in place thanks
to the shortwave aloft and the low/warm front at the surface and
shower and thunderstorm development appears likely. Plenty of deep
layer shear (0-6km bulk shear of 45 to 55 kts) will be present
which will support supercell storm organization. Low level shear,
however, appears weak and with deep southwesterly flow in place
throughout the column, modeled hodographs are long and straight-
lined, which would help favor storm splits. The biggest question
with this setup in regards to severe potential will be the
position and trajectory of the low. If the trajectory is to the
west of our CWA, the warm sector would overspread most of our
area, which would help to increase severe potential across the
region. On the other hand, a further east trajectory would place
the best crossover of lift, instability, and shear to the east of
our region, helping to lower the overall severe potential.
Currently, SPC has nearly our entire area under a marginal risk
for severe weather. We will continue to monitor trends and refine
the severe weather potential over upcoming shifts. A High Risk of
Rip Currents will be in effect through the period. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Shower and storm activity will continue into Saturday night, with
strong to severe storms possible. By Sunday afternoon, dry
weather will return to the region.

The models have come into much better agreement with regards to a
closed upper level low that is expected to progress over
Louisiana come Saturday evening. This feature will continue to
traverse the Deep South, swinging into Georgia and South Carolina
by Sunday afternoon. Afterwards, northwest flow will then take
hold aloft over the local area. At the surface, a low pressure
system will likely push into southeast Mississippi by Saturday
evening, with a cold front trailing southward over the Mississippi
coast and out into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. This low
is expected to progress over southern Alabama overnight, then into
southwestern Georgia by early Sunday morning. High pressure will
quickly build in behind the system and dominate through much of
the coming week.

Expecting showers and storms discussed in the near term to
continue into Saturday evening as the aforementioned storm system
pushes through our area. At this time, the main areas of interest
for possible strong to severe storms are along and east of I-65,
especially over the western Florida Panhandle. Although, we will
continue to monitor the trajectory of this system, as a shift
farther north will bring chances for strong to severe storms
farther north into our CWA. While guidance suggests divergence
aloft over our local area due to the passing upper low/shortwave
trough, much of the better upper dynamics look to be over the
western Florida Panhandle and east of the local area where a stout
low level jet sets up Saturday through Saturday evening. Models
indicate instability values between 500-1000 J/kg for locations
east and south of I-65, with values closer to 1000 J/kg over the
Panhandle. In addition, bulk shear will be abundant, as values
between 60-70 knots are shown to be coincident with the higher
instability values ahead of the cold front. Given all of this,
thunderstorms will continue to be plausible through the evening
hours, with the potential for strong to severe storms along and
east of I-65 and particularly over the Florida Panhandle. The main
threats with any strong to severe storms will be damaging wind
gusts, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Anticipating the
storm system to be fairly progressive, pushing east of our area
through Sunday morning. Dry conditions are then expected to take
hold over the region by Sunday afternoon; although, it will be
breezy.

As for temperatures, lows will drop into the 50s along and west
of I-65 Saturday night, with lower 60s to the east. Highs on
Sunday will then only top out in the mid to upper 70s. A cool
night is on tap for Sunday night, as temperatures dip into the
upper 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and into the mid to upper 50s
south. Lastly, the HIGH RISK of rip currents will persist through
the weekend. /26

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Northwest flow will persist aloft, ushering in dry air into the
region. Additionally, surface high pressure will build into the
Deep South and hold firm over the region through at least
Thursday. Therefore, no rain is anticipated throughout the long
term period. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday
with lows through much of the week dipping into the 50s inland and
to around 60 degrees at the coast each night. Lastly, the risk of
rip currents will decrease through early week, with a low risk
forecast for all area beaches by Tuesday. /26

MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

A light westerly flow will become a more established onshore flow
as we enter into the weekend. The onshore flow will then increase
to moderate to occasionally strong on Saturday, along with
building seas, as the next storm system sweeps through the area.
Strong westerly to northwesterly winds on Sunday will shift back
to a lighter southwesterly flow Monday into Tuesday. Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines (at a minimum) will be required on
future forecast updates. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  61  78  59  78  53  80  58 /   0   0  60  50  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   81  63  77  62  78  57  78  61 /   0   0  90  60  20   0   0   0
Destin      79  66  78  65  78  59  77  64 /   0   0  90  70  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   85  56  82  59  77  49  78  54 /   0   0  60  60  20   0   0   0
Waynesboro  81  56  80  56  77  49  77  54 /   0   0  40  60  10   0   0   0
Camden      81  54  82  57  76  48  75  52 /   0   0  40  70  20   0   0   0
Crestview   86  58  82  60  80  50  81  55 /   0   0  90  70  20   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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