Drought in Florida, April 1 to 18, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A tame Friday evening continues across our area, with
temperatures ranging from the comfortable upper 70s across the
east coast metro areas to the low 80s across southwestern Florida.
Dewpoints remain relatively comfortable in the upper 50s to low
60s as the easterly wind flow gradually subsides and becomes light
over the next several hours. No major forecast changes to write
about at this time!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The mid-level ridge will be the dominant feature for today and
Saturday, although it will begin to breakdown on Saturday. Surface
high pressure remains situated in the western Atlantic near the
coast, leading to a consistent moderate easterly breeze. There is
not a threat for showers today as a result of the high pressure and
steady easterly winds plus the 12Z sounding today showed a much
drier atmospheric column. The onshore flow for the east coast will
lead to lower temperatures today in the low 80s whereas the west
coast with offshore flow will see temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight lows will be reversed as the east coast will be warmer in
the low to mid 70s and the interior/west coast will fall to the mid
to upper 60s.

As an upper level low traverses the Great Lakes and northeast US
regions tomorrow, the surface high will shift further into the
Atlantic with the mid-level ridge weakening. As the surface high
shifts east, low level and surface flow will become more southerly
and eventually southwesterly by Saturday afternoon. Furthermore,
winds near the east coast will have a SE component to them in the
afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. This will
allow for convergence along the sea breeze boundary and thus
increased potential for showers and isolated thunderstorm
development in the eastern half of the CWA. Showers and storms would
shift offshore and taper off in the late evening. The biggest
concern will be periods of heavier rain, which would occur in the
area of strongest convergence and right now that looks to be in the
northern half of the east coast in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Temperatures should be uniform across South Florida in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Sunday into the early portion of next week, a frontal boundary will
slowly drape south across the state and settle over South FL before
washing out over the area by late Monday. This will result in a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday ahead
of the front, and a better chance of showers and storms on Monday as
the front settles over the area.

Upper level ridging builds into the area Tuesday through the end of
the week as upper level high pressure builds over the southern Gulf.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure out in the Atlantic will result in
an east to southeast flow across South FL. Overall drier conditions
are expected, with PoPs remaining below 15%.

Temperatures will be above normal all of next week, with highs
generally in the middle 80s across the east coast metro, and around
90 over interior portions of SW FL. Overnight lows will be in the
60s inland, and low to mid 70s across the east coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Light ESE wind flow will gradually shift to a southeasterly
direction over night, remaining light through the early morning
hours. After sunrise, southeasterly winds will pick up and persist
throughout the TAF period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible
across southeastern Florida tomorrow afternoon, however confidence
remains too low to include VCSH/VCTS in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The moderate easterly winds continue through this afternoon and
reached advisory thresholds in the Atlantic this morning. Winds
become SE on Saturday and more southerly on Sunday. Wave heights are
likely in the 4-6ft range today before falling this weekend to 3-5ft
Saturday and under 3ft on Sunday. Gulf waters will peak at 1-3ft
today and then 2ft or less over the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A high risk for rip currents continues today with the sustained
easterly winds. This risk will diminish over the weekend as winds
turn more offshore to the south this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  85  71  86 /   0  20  10  20
West Kendall     69  87  67  89 /   0  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        71  87  70  88 /   0  20  10  20
Homestead        71  85  68  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  84  70  85 /   0  20  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  72  85  70  86 /   0  20  20  20
Pembroke Pines   71  87  70  88 /   0  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  71  86  68  86 /   0  20  20  10
Boca Raton       71  86  69  87 /   0  20  20  20
Naples           70  87  71  86 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Hadi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
813 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020015-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
813 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...High Risk of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South
Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic
beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The risk of rip currents will remain elevated across all east coast
beaches through the first part of the weekend, and return later next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.