Arizona, 2023

Winter Weather in Arizona, December 22 to 23, 2023

December 22 to 23, 2023 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A storm system moved through southeast Arizona delivering snow to some of the mountain tops generally above 8000 to 8500 feet. 14 inches of snow was recorded at the Hannagan Meadow SNOTEL but there were no discernable impacts from this event given the elevation that the snow occurred at.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A storm system moved through southeast Arizona delivering snow to some of the mountain tops generally above 8000 to 8500 feet. 14 inches of snow was recorded at the Hannagan Meadow SNOTEL but there were no discernable impacts from this event given the elevation that the snow occurred at.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 22, 2:19 PM MST, 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 22, 2:19 PM MST, 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
219 PM MST Fri Dec 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A wet Pacific storm will continue to move across
Southeast Arizona tonight into the weekend. This storm will bring
widespread rain and high elevation snow tonight into Saturday.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon
into the late evening. A few showers possible on Sunday and then
dry and cooler temperatures for the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain showers and high elevation snow can be observed
across Southeast Arizona today and will continue through the
night. A low pressure center off the southern California coast
will bring three forecast elements for the region:
rain, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow.

The Total Precipitable Water satellite imagery shows the low
pressure center tapping into the subtropical jet (PWAT values of
1.5 inches) which will continue to bring the anomalous amount of
rain for the region. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index shows this
anomalous amount of rain on a order of 1-2 shift of tails through
Saturday night. The current 12 hour rainfall amounts have been 0.5
inches to several locations in the 1+ inch territory. Those
locations have the upslope dynamics and more efficient rain
process so far. As the afternoon progresses, more storms will
start to train over a corridor from the northern limits of Tucson
to the southern limits of Sonoita. The storms will be traveling
between the two limits in a northeasterly direction. The HREF 3
Hour ensemble Probability Match Mean shows the corridor has 30-50%
of receiving an 1 or more by the later afternoon and early
evening. This can make the evening travel a challenge as roads
will be ponding to some minor flooding issues in low lying areas
and washes will be flowing. So far, only a handful of washes are
flowing in the Tucson metro. The will lead to more flow in other
washes as the soils have become more saturated from the morning
rains. Reminder, Turn Around Don't Drown!

As the low pressure center moves across the region this afternoon,
the jet axis will be a favorable position as well with good
diffluence aloft to support organized thunderstorms. The RAP
analysis has shear values of 50 kts and some low CAPE values, but
that can increase over the course of several hours if there is
enough break in clouds to get solar heating or minor disturbance
to jump start storms. SPC has a marginal risk for thunderstorms
for wind and hail which can be possible due to the upper level
support. Once thunderstorms form, especially within the previously
stated corridor, it can bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty and
erratic winds, and possibly small hail.

The snow levels are currently around 8500-9000 feet based on the
cameras on the radio ridge on Mt Lemmon. The snow has been
accumulating to about an inch as of this writing. As the
low pressure center moves, the 700mb temperatures will drop from
0 degrees celsius to close to -4 degrees and possibly to -5 by the
late evening. This will bring snow levels down close to
6,500-7,000 feet by tomorrow morning. The ridgetops and higher
upslope will see the heavier side of the snow. Thus, there is a
Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 8000 feet to highlight
this snow.

Looking ahead, a 500 mb ridge will build behind the storm system
by Sunday and into the new week. Temperatures will stay several
degrees below normal (eastern locations will be below freezing
for the mornings) for a few days after the storm system moves out.
Then, dry and temperatures being near seasonal normal for the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 24/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 4K-8K ft AGL across the forecast area and
through the majority of the forecast period. -SHRA and embedded
-TSRA continuing through the after and clearing west to east by
24/18Z. MVFR ceilings/vsby conditions across all of southeast
Arizona through the end of the forecast period, along with
mountain obscurations. Any -TSRA is capable of wind gusts to 30
kts. Otherwise, SFC wind will generally be less than 12 kts and
from the south/southwest through the end of the period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong and wet storm system will move across the
area tonight into Sunday, with cooler temperatures and widespread
precipitation. Relative humidity values will increase
substantially starting tonight and remain well above critical
thresholds into at least the middle of next week. 20-foot winds
will generally remain below 15 mph through the period. Widespread
wetting rain is likely with this system, along with high elevation
snow above 8k ft.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Saturday for AZZ510-511-514.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Weather, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When
December 22, 3:00 PM MST to December 23, 6:00 AM MST
Where
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by
SNOTEL
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

There was 14 inches of snow at the Hannagan Meadow SNOTEL site.

What these are

Winter Weather
Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, December 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1145817.