Blizzard in Alaska, April 1, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 AM AKDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A front moving rapidly east over the West Coast and Western
Interior today will push into the Central Interior this evening
and into the Eastern Interior by Sunday morning. Expect gusty
winds and areas of reduced visibility in blowing snow on the West
Coast and over the highway summits tonight in the Central
Interior. Expect generally 1 to 3 inches over a broad area from
the Brooks Range southward to the Alaska Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...
The 01/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis as well as the 00z upper air observations as well and
verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread
remains limited in both the short range and mid range. Spread in
the track and strength of synoptic scale features remains very
reasonable well into the extended range. Inherited forecast remain
on target with minimal changes incorporated with this forecast
package.

Aloft at 500 mb, a 516 dam low centered in the Northeast Gulf of
Alaska anchors a longwave trough over central and eastern Alaska
while weak ridging builds briefly into the Eastern Bering Sea and
West Coast and Western Interior today before a strong shortwave
over Wrangel Island dives south and east and arrives over the
Northwest Coast, Norton Sound and the Bering Strait this morning
and pushes over the Western Brooks Range this afternoon. This
shortwave weakens rapidly as it pushes east and then northeast
over the Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday. A 504 dam low pushes south
and east over Wrangel Island on Sunday night and will be located
300 northwest of Point Barrow by Monday evening.

On the surface, a 999 mb low currently moving east over the
Bering Sea will deepen to 996 mb this afternoon and then weaken to
1000 mb as it pushes north and east to be near Point Hope this
evening. A front associated with this low will sweep rapidly east
over the West Coast and through the Western Interior today and
will push into the Central Interior this evening and into the
Eastern Interior by Sunday morning. As the front pushes east
expect snow initially and then a transition to snow showers with
gusty westerly winds behind the front. Expect local areas of
reduced visibility in blowing snow today along the coast and this
evening and over night along the highway summits in the Interior.
Generally 1 to 3 inches is expected from the Brooks Range
southward to the Alaska Range through Sunday morning as the front
sweeps into Canada. A 999 mb low in the Central Aleutians on
Monday morning will sweep a front north and east into the Eastern
Bering Sea and the YK Delta on Monday morning brining another
round of snow to the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front wrapping around a 999 mb low currently moving over the
Bering Strait will approach the West Coast this morning and push
into the Western Interior this afternoon. Expect snow to increase
ahead of the front and then transition to snow showers after the
front passes. Expect the front to spread snow and winds in the 25
to 40 mph range over much of the coast with lower visibilities in
blowing snow expected. The front tracks east into the Western
Interior by Saturday afternoon from Bettles to Lake Minchumina
west and continues to push east in to the Central Interior this
evening and into Sunday morning. Winds in the Western Interior
will be 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts in areas of higher
terrain. There will be a secondary push of light snow across
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys to the Chukchi Sea Coast, ending by
Sunday evening. Snowfall totals through Sunday afternoon will be
in the 1 to 3 inch range with a few spots picking 4 inches. A
second front approaches the West Coast and YK Delta by Monday
morning with another round of snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow generally in the 1 to 4 inch range will develop this
afternoon and continue into Sunday morning as a front sweeps east
out of the Western Interior. Winds generally be from the
southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph, with stronger winds across
summits. Expect low visibilities in blowing snow over Interior
highway summits tonight and into Sunday morning. High temperatures
today will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the single digits below to the teens.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
As the aforementioned front low sweeps across the Interior winds
increase to 10 to 20 MPH this morning, with stronger winds in
Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass. The backside of the low will bring
light snow and 15 to 25 MPH winds across the Chukchi Sea Coast
early morning Sunday and taper off Sunday evening. Snowfall will
be primarily south of the Brooks Range but Sunday afternoon will
see a band of snow from Anaktuvuk Pass to Nuiqsut east through
early Monday morning with only 1 to 2 inches expected of
accumulation. Low temperatures will from single digits above to
below 0 with highs in the mid-teens to single digits above 0.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...A front from the southwest
moves over the Yukon Delta and will spread snow from southeast of
Chevak Monday morning and will spread north and east to near Deadhorse
by Wednesday morning. Strong winds develop in the Bering Sea, and
southwest Interior as this front pushes inland.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-810-853-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-852-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&