Hail in Wyoming, June 17, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
144 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Sunday Night...

Low-level jet over far SE MT persists, and with strong mixing
occurring, winds gusting to 56 mph are reaching the surface. Once
surface temperatures cool off this evening, winds should
drastically diminish. Ample instability is present across the
area, but with a strong cap still present. However, latest radar
and satellite imagery show cumulus and some showers trying to
initiate, slowly showing signs of the cap breaking down. As this
is expected to continue, high-based thunderstorms are possible
areas east of Billings late this afternoon and evening. Little to
no hail is expected, but brief gusts 55 to 65 mph can be expected
with any storm.

Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s as of 1 PM, and
should reach the low 90s in the next couple hours. One more day of
strong downslope warming will occur tomorrow to allow temperatures
to rise back into the upper 80s to low 90s, and lows tonight only
dropping into the mid to upper 60s. These very warm temperatures
will bring about seasonal snowmelt in the mountains. More on hydro
concerns contained in the Hydrologic Outlook.

A deep trough will slowly shift over us early next week to bring
about widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially on Sunday
and Monday. While latest guidance keeps heavier, impactful rain
amounts north of the Beartooths, latest guidance shows potential
for upslope, or a low-level convergence zone setting up over the
Beartooth Foothills that could bring about localized, heavy rain
to the area. This local area of ascent can vastly change locations
over the coming days, but is an area to keep an eye on.

Vertz

Monday through Friday...

Upper trough moves into the area on Monday. SREF showed some shear
in the SE with low lapse rates. NBM did show come higher CWASP
values in the E. QPF amounts were still not very high, but did
show a low chance of higher amounts due to convection. PWAT's were
below /0.75/ inches with the lowest values in the mountains.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from W to E
across the area on Monday. There will be a little snow in the
mountains above 8000 ft. Highs will be in the 60s W and lower 70s
elsewhere. Meteograms showed breezy conditions.

PoPs decrease to slight chance Mon. evening as the trough weakens
and moves out of the area. Tuesday through early Thursday were
forecast to be dry with a warming trend into the 80s as the flow
turns generally zonal aloft. SW flow will move into the area
during Thursday and clusters had SW flow on Friday with
differences in the timing of the next trough. There will be slight
chances of thunderstorms over parts of the area Thu. afternoon and
evening, as well as over the W Friday afternoon. Arthur
&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the area into
early this evening. A few thunderstorms are possible over SE MT,
including KMLS, and Sheridan County into the late evening. Strong
gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms, along with MVFR/IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through Saturday. Expect
gusty surface winds into this evening, continuing overnight into
Saturday in SE MT. There will be LLWS overnight in KBIL. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/095 061/076 052/070 050/077 052/084 056/088 056/083
    20/U    48/T    65/T    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 058/086 053/071 045/063 045/074 047/080 051/083 051/081
    10/N    48/T    66/T    21/U    01/U    12/T    12/T
HDN 064/095 061/080 052/071 050/077 050/085 054/089 056/085
    20/B    26/T    65/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 069/097 067/083 057/072 053/077 054/084 059/088 059/085
    20/B    23/T    54/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 069/095 067/084 057/071 052/076 054/083 058/088 060/085
    20/B    12/T    45/T    20/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 069/094 067/084 057/073 051/075 052/081 056/085 058/083
    20/B    12/T    43/T    20/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 064/094 062/081 052/069 046/076 050/083 054/088 056/086
    20/B    25/T    56/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR ZONES
      29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

weather.gov/billings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1209 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE BAKER             46.35N 104.26W
06/17/2022  M55.00 MPH       FALLON             MT   ASOS

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1221 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW LIVINGSTON        45.65N 110.60W
06/17/2022  M52.00 MPH       PARK               MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1135 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 SSW GREYCLIFF        45.58N 109.85W
06/17/2022  M56.00 MPH       SWEET GRASS        MT   MESONET

1140 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 S BIG TIMBER          45.75N 109.95W
06/17/2022  M53.00 MPH       SWEET GRASS        MT   MESONET

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
211 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 S REEDPOINT           45.61N 109.56W
06/17/2022  M51.00 MPH       STILLWATER         MT   MESONET

&&

CR