An upper level ridge brought record heat area wide in late September.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
An upper level ridge brought record heat area wide in late September.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 26, 9:43 AM PST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1043 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will remain over the region through
at least Tuesday with very warm and dry conditions persisting. Light
offshore flow today and possibly into Tuesday. This offshore flow
will trigger elevated to critical fire weather concerns. The next
disturbance approaches midweek, with the following frontal system
bringing cooler and cloudier conditions along with renewed rain
chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Forecast remains on track
this morning. Previous discussion follows.
Another day of warm and dry conditions as the highest temperatures
of the forecast period are expected today. The aforementioned
embedded upper low may also bring some instability to the area. This
combination of hot, dry and unstable conditions will result in
critical fire weather thresholds being met. For further discussion
on this, please refer to the Fire Weather section below. Weak
easterly surface flow will help to enhance temps somewhat. Tuesday
will see the embedded upper low move on, and even though the ridge
axis will be well east of the area, W WA will still find itself
under the influence of the upper ridge. Onshore flow will gradually
work its way eastward throughout the day Tuesday which will help to
shave a couple of degrees off high temperatures. The main question
will be how far eastward will this onshore flow make it. While not
much of a concern to the main forecast, this may have further fire
weather implications. Again, that will be further discussed below.
Increasing clouds Tuesday night will herald a frontal passage still
expected for Wednesday. Models still are not particularly impressed
with this system as solutions remain consistent that it will fall
apart to some degree as it moves eastward. However, as the upper low
moves inland Wed afternoon and evening, precip chances will increase
into the 30 to 50 pct range for most locations, bringing the best
PoPs W WA has seen in a while.
A brief air quality note, some smoke and haze are possible during
the morning hours with the combination of offshore flow and
lingering overnight inversion, which may drag air quality down at
times. As conditions start to mix out by late this morning, air
quality will be expected to improve. 18
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...As the upper level trough
continues its slow exit out of the area, PoPs will linger into
Thursday morning before conditions dry up during Thursday afternoon.
Models remain in sync that a shortwave ridge will allow warm and dry
conditions to resume. Previous model solutions had progged the next
system to enter the Pac NW Saturday, but current solutions are
walking that back...allowing the upper level ridge to remain in
place and as such allowing a warming trend to continue. By the end
of the weekend, and upper level low will be sitting just off the
coast, continuing the conundrum as to when it will move eastward and
with it, the potential for wetting rains.
Temps Thursday will benefit from the lingering clouds and moisture,
topping out in the mid 60s to around 70 for most lowland locations.
Friday and Saturday will see warming thanks to the ridge, upper 60s
to mid 70s for the former, lower to upper 70s for the latter. The
upper low camped out over the coastal waters will start to exert
some influence Sunday as highs cool in the upper 60s mid mid 70s
once more. 18
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...As the upper level trough
continues its slow exit out of the area, PoPs will linger into
Thursday morning before conditions dry up during Thursday afternoon.
Models remain in sync that a shortwave ridge will allow warm and dry
conditions to resume. Previous model solutions had progged the next
system to enter the Pac NW Saturday, but current solutions are
walking that back...allowing the upper level ridge to remain in
place and as such allowing a warming trend to continue. By the end
of the weekend, and upper level low will be sitting just off the
coast, continuing the conundrum as to when it will move eastward and
with it, the potential for wetting rains.
Temps Thursday will benefit from the lingering clouds and moisture,
topping out in the mid 60s to around 70 for most lowland locations.
Friday and Saturday will see warming thanks to the ridge, upper 60s
to mid 70s for the former, lower to upper 70s for the latter. The
upper low camped out over the coastal waters will start to exert
some influence Sunday as highs cool in the upper 60s mid mid 70s
once more. 18
&&
.MARINE...Northerly flow will prevail over the waters today. An
onshore push will develop tonight with Small Craft Advisory winds
likely through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A frontal system will
track through the Coastal Waters Tuesday night with another push of
westerlies down the strait. Swells will build to around 9-11 ft on
Wednesday. The flow will turn offshore again over the weekend.
33/Butwin
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Light offshore flow expected at least today. This
coupled with persistent dry conditions and above average high
temperatures expected for today, critical fire weather thresholds for
Dry and Unstable conditions are expected to be met over the
Cascades. As such, inherited Red Flag Warning for these areas will
remain in place. Widespread sustained wind speeds of 10-12 mph are
not expected, which would also be critical, however cannot rule out
an isolated occurrence or two. A switch to onshore flow on Tuesday
will boost daytime RHs just enough to avoid any further fire weather
concerns in the lowlands. The forecast question is whether or not
this westward push will exert any influence over the Cascades.
Current forecast does seem to suggest a modest increase in RH values
that might be enough to put the kibosh on fire wx concerns. However,
HDWI values for Tuesday suggest that the threat may not be over just
yet, waiting for the cooler and wetter conditions brought by the
incoming low. In such a borderline instance, current thinking is to
wait and see how current Red Flag holds up before making a decision
on whether or not to rope Tuesday into its scope as well. Will
continue with Elevated risk for Tuesday at this time and allow
afternoon conditions dictate the need for additional headlines
tomorrow. 18
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for West Slopes of
the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet-West Slopes
of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&3 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
A record high temperature of 82 was set at Seattle-Tacoma WA airport on September 26th. This breaks the old record of 78 set in 1970.
A record high temperature of 80 was set at Seattle WA WFO on September 26th. This breaks the old record of 79 set in 1949.
A record high temperature of 79 was set at Bellingham WA airport today. This ties the old record of 79 set in 1949.
A record high temperature of 86 was set at Olympia WA Airport on September 26th. This breaks the old record of 83 set in 2016.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1057979, 1057980, 1057981.