After a series of snow events in the lowlands and mountains of western Washington, a system off the Pacific brought a modifying airmass towards the area right before the Christmas holiday. Warmer Pacific air was able to overrun lingering cold air very near the surface, producing a warm layer of classic characteristic of a freezing rain profile.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
After a series of snow events in the lowlands and mountains of western Washington, a system off the Pacific brought a modifying airmass towards the area right before the Christmas holiday. Warmer Pacific air was able to overrun lingering cold air very near the surface, producing a warm layer of classic characteristic of a freezing rain profile. As such, measurable ice accumulation led to hazardous impacts across the area, most noticeably to roadways and travel.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 7:28 PM PST, 6 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
728 PM PST Wed Dec 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Very cold temperatures are in place across the region
and cold conditions will continue into Friday morning. The next
weather system will bring widespread precipitation to the region
beginning Thursday night. This precipitation may begin as snow
before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain.
Freezing rain may result in significant ice accumulation impacts
Friday. Heavier rainfall is expected with a series of storms lined
up to move across the region Saturday into much of next week,
increasing the risk of urban flooding and river flooding.
&&
.UPDATE...Temperatures have fallen into the teens to low 20s
across much of western Washington this evening. Breezy northerly
and easterly winds have brought wind chill values down into the
single digits and teens. Temperatures are still expected to fall
a few more degrees overnight before increasing high cloud cover
moves overhead. This will likely result in the coldest
temperatures of the season so far for most areas.
Winds appear to have peaked across western Whatcom County and are
expected to gradually decrease. No adjustments are needed to the
current forecast based on the latest analysis. The previous
discussion follows.
-Wolcott-
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...Very cold day time
temperatures today from the teens over the north to 20s over much
of the remainder of the interior lowland and near 30 for the coast.
This will set the stage for the very cold overnight temperatures
tonight with widespread low temperatures over the interior well
into the mid-to-low teens and 20s along the coast. A notable
exception will be Western Whatcom County, where lows will dip into
the single digits. Enhanced Fraser outflow over Western Whatcom
County and the San Juans will drive wind chills down below zero
overnight. In addition strengthening easterlies along the
foothills of the Cascades will also drive wind chills down below
zero there, especially along the I-90 and US-2 corridors. These
cold temperatures will be significant, please take the proper
precautions to protect vulnerable people, plants, pets and pipes.
Ensemble guidance showing a slower trend with the precipitation
expected to begin to move into the area Thursday evening - with
the most likely forecast now highlighting precipitation beginning
to move onto the coast during the evening and into the interior
after midnight. The very cold temperatures already in place will
mean that precipitation will largely start off as snow for both
mountain and lowland locations. As the pacific air mass continues
to push inland into Friday morning, warming aloft will increase
the potential for freezing rain over many areas into Friday
morning and possibly even Friday afternoon before transitioning
fully over to rain. This largely will result in a complex mix of
winter precipitation from snow to ice accumulation due to freezing
rain, finally to rain-on-snow or ice. Some locations may see 1 to
3 inches of lowland snow before this transition, with the most
likely locations being the Hood Canal area and Western Whatcom
county. In terms of freezing rain accumulations, 0.10 to 0.25
inches are possible from late Thursday evening through Friday
morning and possibly even early Friday afternoon. The heavier
accumulations are most likely in Grays Harbor County and location
South of Puget Sound. Though less likely, significant
accumulations are possible at other locations and this remains a
very significant, widespread potential impact. Precipitation
should transition to rain for most areas by Friday afternoon, with
locations in Western Skagit, Western Whatcom and the San Juan
Islands being the last to shift over. It is also possible that
some of the sheltered interior valleys in the north may see
freezing rain and ice accumulation much later in the afternoon
that other locations.
Friday into Saturday will see a significant warm up, with
overnight lows remaining above freezing and high temperatures
Saturday rising into the upper 40s and even low 50s. The first
round of heavier precipitation is expected to move into the
Olympic Peninsula Saturday morning, filling into the interior
and Cascades during the afternoon. Snow levels will continue to
rise well above pass levels through Saturday evening. There may be
a break in the precipitation sometime later Saturday night into
early Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...The second in a series of
moisture surges will move into the region later Sunday, possibly
Sunday evening. This will likely last into Monday, followed by
similar surges into next week as the larger pattern keeps deeper
sub-tropical moisture pointed at the Pacific Northwest through the
extended period. This continue to highlight what may be a very
active hydrologic period for much of the region into at least the
middle part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions currently in place across the TAF sites,
with these conditions expected to persist into Thursday. The
exception to this rule will be OLM where MVFR ceilings and vsbys
will be stubborn to erode. Increasing high level cloud cover from
west to east will then make for a VFR ceiling by Thursday afternoon,
ahead of the next significant winter storm. Winter precip will begin
to increase Thursday evening, which will eventually make for a drop
in ceilings near or shortly after the end of this TAF period. Winds
breezy out of the E/NE 10-15kts with higher winds at BLI and HQM 10-
20kts with gusts 25-35kts (potentially up to 45kts at BLI through
tonight). Very cold temperatures expected at the terminal tonight
and Thursday, both at the surface and aloft.
KSEA...VFR conditions through tonight before increasing high level
clouds make for a ceiling around 20kft. Dry conditions through
Thursday evening before winter precip arrives 06-12z Friday and
ceilings dip to MVFR. Winds breezy out of the NE 10-15kts with a few
gusts to 20kts.
Kovacik
&&
.MARINE...The marine forecast remains in good shape this evening.
Strong Fraser outflow and east winds will continue to make for
breezy conditions over the northern inland waters and through
portions of the Strait and over the Coastal Waters into Thursday.
Current headlines will remain in place, with the previous discussion
included below:
Fraser Outflow winds will gradually taper off through Thursday
afternoon, with the SCA expiring there first. Winds however look to
remain up over the coastal waters potentially reaching gales
Thursday night and beyond, but this remains far out enough to allow
for additional model runs before any headline might be needed.
Freezing spray is also likely over the Northern Inland Waters thanks
to a modified Arctic airmass that is spilling into the region with
the outflow from an anomalously strong Arctic High over southern
Alberta. Surface temperatures in the low teens and wind gusts up to
Small Craft Advisory levels may lead to ice accretion tonight and
into Thursday morning.
18/Kovacik
&&
.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through at least
Saturday. However, a rapid warm-up starting Friday and continuing
into Saturday will likely lead to a transition to rain on existing
snow across most of Western Washington. This could lead to some
urban flooding as the moderate to heavy rain falls on the existing
and lingering snow. In addition, rises on many rivers across the
region can be expected. While this alone may lead to flooding on
more responsive basins, such as the Skokomish River in Mason County,
the larger impact is likely to prime the rivers to be at a higher
flow leading into next week. Additional heavy rainfall through the
weekend and the early part of next week will bring the potential for
additional rivers to approach or reach flood stage early next week.
An ESF has been issued to highlight these potential impacts through
the next week. Cullen
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for San Juan County-
Western Whatcom County.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
for San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom
County.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
evening for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Bremerton and Vicinity-Central Coast-East Puget Sound
Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and
Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North
Coast-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-
Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Friday
night for Olympics-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-
West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes
South Central Cascades and Passes.
Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Thursday for East Puget Sound Lowlands.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Northern Inland
Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
&&9 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
An ice storm caused major impacts along the central WA Coast. A report out of Aberdeen measured 0.25 inches of ice.
An ice storm caused major impacts across Western Whatcom County on Dec 23. Some reports around the area included: 0.2 inches of ice around Glacier, and numerous reports around Bellingham, including ice coating planes at the airport and 0.38 inches of ice around downtown, as well as some reports around the remainder of the city around 0.2 inches. The most ice was reported out of Lynden with 0.5 inches.
First reports of freezing rain were provided by spotters on the night of the 22nd, where multiple collisions were the result from freezing rain along I-5. It was also reported that ice was beginning to coat surfaces in Chehalis late that evening. By 4am on the 23rd, reports of 0.2 inches of ice were received out of Tumwater and then by 10am, reports from around Olympia measured around 0.25 inches of ice. Lacey, nearby to Olympia received around 0.23 inches of ice.
Significant ice accumulation was reported form multiple sources during the morning hours of Dec 23. SeaTac airport reported around 0.20 inches of freezing rain by 8am on the 23rd. Other reports included: 0.25 inches in Des Moines, 0.13 inches at the NWS Seattle Office, 0.25 inches in Kenmore, 0.20 inches in Renton, and 0.13 inches in Mountlake Terrace. The highest amounts were reported from West Seattle at 0.3 inches, 0.3 inches in Federal Way, and 1 mile west of SeaTac at 0.4 inches.
Significant ice accumulation resulted in major impacts across the Kitsap Peninsula just days before the Christmas holiday. Numerous reports were drawn from social media including: a report of 0.25 inches of ice in Port Orchard by 5am on the 23rd, reports of 0.1 inches and up to 0.27 inches around Seabeck. The highest report received was out of Silverdale where 0.4 inches of ice was measured.
An ice storm during the morning and afternoon hours on the 23rd resulted in major impacts across the Bellevue area just before the Christmas holiday. Reports around the area from social media included: 0.10-0.15 inches of ice around Sammamish and Woodinville. The highest reports were out of Kirkland and Issaquah where 0.25 inches and 0.30 inches were reported, respectively.
Numerous reports on social media confirmed the presence of a dangerous ice storm around the Tacoma area. Reports included: 0.2 inches measured in Auburn, 0.25 inches around Tacoma, Lakewood, and Gig Harbor.
Not as many reports were received around the Everett area, but an ice storm brought impacts to travel and roadways on the 23rd. One report out of Marysville measured 0.15 inches of ice.
Freezing rain plagued the Passes during the early morning hours of Dec 24 as cold air lingered near the surface. Both Passes were closed around 6am due to freezing rain accumulation of around 1 inch. US 2 was closed into far western Chelan county and I-90 was closed from North Bend to Ellensburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1073545, 1073543, 1073523, 1073532, 1073538, 1073539, 1073546, 1073547, 1073548.