NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 3, 7:34 PM PST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 7:34 PM PST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
834 PM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Active weather will continue to increase as a system
moves into the area. This system is and will continue to produce
multiple hazards. Expect heavy rain and mountain snow, strong
gusty winds, thunderstorms and high surf. Conditions will
gradually begin to improve late Monday into Tuesday. Warmer and
drier weather is expected mid week, with a return to cooler and
damp conditions by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...We're in a period of
very active weather over the next 36 hours with heavy rain and
mountain snow, river flooding (Skokomish), strong winds, large
swells and a chance of thunderstorms. Minor changes were made to
the winds (tonight) otherwise the forecast is largely on track. 33
Previous discussion...The near term (rest of today and into
Monday) will be quite active with quite a few weather hazards that
will be discussed in detail separately below. But first, a
general overview.
A warm front continues to make its way through the area today and
will continue to produce rain and gusty southerly winds. Snow
levels will continue to rise through the rest of today. The cold
front associated with the system will move through early Monday
and will bring with it heavy rain and a rapid lowering of snow
levels. Behind the front west/southwest gusty winds and the chance
of isolated thunderstorms (throughout the region) are expected
Monday.
Rain and Mountain Snow (Today through Tuesday):
Rain will continue to increase through the rest of the day today
as the warm front moves through. During this time, snow levels
will be rather high (around 4000 feet). As the cold front
approaches and moves through precipitation will get heavier, with
the heaviest rain expected between midnight and 8 am. With the
coastal regions experiencing heavy rain earlier. As the cold
front moves through, snow levels will be dropping rapidly. The
snow levels are expected to drop down to 2000-2500 feet. Once the
cold front moves through precipitation will gradually become more
scattered.
In total we are expecting 1-2 inches of rain at the coast and
generally 0.5-1 inch for the greater Puget Sound and North
Interior area. The I-5 corridor from Olympia southward will
likely see closer to the 1-1.5 inch amounts. For the mountains
2-4 inches of water is forecasted, with some of the high peaks of
the Olympics as well as the volcanoes possibly seeing 4-6 inches.
However, for the high elevation regions, it will be in the form of
snow. In total 1-2 feet of snow is expected at the passes and
Hurricane Ridge. The extreme high elevations will see greater
accumulations.
Winds:
Strong southerly winds will shift to westerly this evening
into tonight as the cold front (currently visible on composite
radar) pushes across the region. Southwesterly winds will increase
immediately ahead of the front, giving way to a powerful onshore
push in its wake. As a result, upgraded the high wind watches along
the outer coast and along the Whatcom and Skagit County Coasts to a
High Wind Warning. Wind advisories in effect across the remaining
lowland areas. With trees beginning to bloom, wind will cause them
to act as a sail, increasing the likelihood of downed limbs and
trees, causing cascading impacts in some areas(power outages, road
blockages, etc). In addition, rough surf along the outer coast will
likely yield impacts to beaches and coastal communities. Winds will
remain elevated through the day Monday, before decreasing Monday
evening.
Thunderstorms:
Once the cold front moves through their will be a chance of
thunderstorms area wide. With the instability due to the cold air
aloft and decent amount of wind shear, the updrafts in the
convective cells will be well supported (at least for W WA
standards). With the convective cells being well supported, there
is a greater chance of convective cells forming small hail,
lightning as well as enhancing the gusty winds. The chance of
thunderstorms will decrease come sunset as the atmosphere begins
to stabilize, but their remains the chance of some stronger cells
late Monday.
High Surf:
Due to the strong winds at the coast as well as the swells, we are
expecting high surf at the outer coast with 20-25 foot waves
expected Monday-Tuesday. These large waves will create dangerous
beach conditions and could cause localized beach erosion.
While showers will be lingering in the area Tuesday, things will
be improving throughout the area as a ridge will be building into
the area. By Wednesday the most impactful weather is expected to
be some morning fog. Wednesday will be also be the start of warmer
conditions.
Butwin
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Compared to the short term,
the weather for the end of the week seems very quiet. An upper
level ridge will remain over the region on Thursday and will
likely bring the warmest temperatures of the year (thus far) to
the region! Most of the lowlands should expect highs in the mid to
upper 60s. It will be a bit cooler by the area waters with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s. The exciting thing to watch in this
period will be in the South Interior, where there is the potential
for the first 70 degree day.
The warmth is not expected to last long as the ridge will move
east and we will return to our unsettled trough-y pattern. This
will bring temperatures back down to the 50s starting Friday. The
return to this pattern will bring back the potential for lowland
rain and mountain snow. But none of the fronts moving through
during this period look to be very strong.
Butwin
&&
.AVIATION...Radar showing moderate to heavy precipitation pushing
inland along the coast this evening, with light rain for non-
rain shadowed areas across the Sound. Overall, expect more
widespread rain to push into the interior over the next few hours
(likely between 04-08Z) and for ceilings to drop down to
MVFR as as a result. With rain expected to increase in intensity
tonight, will likely see visibilities at area terminals drop to as
low as 3 SM at times. Strong S/SW winds expected tonight through
the end of the period, with sustained winds 20-30 kts at times and
frequent gusts 30-40 kts. Low level wind shear is likely at all
terminals tonight with 2000 foot winds out of the S/SW at 40 to
50 knots.
KSEA...VFR ceilings will give way to MVFR as rain continues to
push into the interior tonight. Low end MVFR (1000-2000 ft)
ceilings are expected through the overnight hours with
visibilities falling to as low as 3 to 4 SM at times in heavier
rain.
Prevailing surface winds this evening at 15 to 20 kts with
occasional gusts of 20 to 30 kts. Winds will continue to increase
overnight, with expected sustained speeds of 20 to 30 kts with
gusts of 30 to 40 kts possible at times. South to southwesterly
winds at 2000 feet will range from 40 to 50 knots through the
overnight hours, keeping a threat of low-level wind shear present.
Pullin/Borth
&&
.MARINE...Widespread Gales expected across the Coastal and
Interior waters starting tonight and persisting through Monday
before gradually decreasing. Winds already elevated across the
area and are expected to flip around to the west/northwest late
tonight with the passage of a cold front. This strong post-frontal
push of westerly winds will persist through Monday night before
decreasing. This will drive combined seas up to 20 to 24 feet
offshore and along the outer coast. With the exception of the
Strait of Juan de Fuca, where gales will likely persist into
Tuesday, winds will gradually decrease through the day. Seas will
fall below 10 feet once again by Wednesday morning as winds turn
easterly with high pressure building east of the Cascades.
33/Pullin
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A couple of wet frontal systems will bring rain,
heavy at times, tonight and Monday. In general, 2-5 inches of
rainfall is expected for the Cascades and Olympics. Snow levels
will start out 4000 to 4500 feet tonight then fall to 2000 to 2500
feet on Monday. Showers, locally heavy, will continue Monday
night and Tuesday but additional, hydrologically significant
precipitation is not expected during this time.
The combination of heavy rains, higher snow levels and south to
southwest 850 MB winds of 40-50 knots into the south slopes of
the Olympics should be enough to drive the Skokomish River in
Mason County above flood stage Monday morning.
No other river flooding is forecast, but many rivers will see
sharp rises tonight and Monday and a few will get close to or
rise slightly above action stage. Rainfall amounts in the central
Cascades have trended down slightly and it no longer looks like
the Snoqualmie River in King County is a threat to flood.
16
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM PDT Monday for
Bremerton and Vicinity-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest
Interior-Tacoma Area.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for Cascades of
Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King
Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics.
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Hood Canal Area-Lower
Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Admiralty Inlet Area-
San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom
County.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for Central Coast-North
Coast.
High Surf Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for
Central Coast-North Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
10 Nm-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for Puget Sound and Hood
Canal.
&&
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