Scattered severe thunderstorms well in advance of a cold front produced damaging winds across portions of the Virginia northern neck and southeast Virginia.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered severe thunderstorms well in advance of a cold front produced damaging winds across portions of the Virginia northern neck and southeast Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 1:47 PM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 247 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure located well offshore and inland troughing will result in typical summertime weather through midweek with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger cold front approaches from the west late in the week before likely dissipating over the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Early afternoon analysis reveals a weak, wavy and increasingly diffuse frontal boundary draped along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line, extending west into the Ohio Valley. 1024mb sfc high pressure is now well offshore of the region with S-SE low-level flow common across the local area. Aloft, a low amplitude trough continues to dig from the mid-Missouri valley into the Mid-south region, with numerous shortwaves embedded within the trough pushing, accounting for an MCV crossing from north-central Ohio and Western PA toward the central Appalachians. Latest meso analysis reveals MLCAPE values in the 2-2.5k J/Kg range, with warm cloud depths approaching 4k ft and PW values ~1.75-1.9" range. All of the above supports isolated to scattered convection potential this afternoon, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall once again the main hazards. Should be noted that the best bulk shear/forcing for ascent remains focused to our north/northwest in the Blue Ridge and points N, nearer to the quasi-stationary front. Therefore, expect convective activity to be a bit lower locally in comparison to yesterday. Have maintained a 30-50% PoP for scattered coverage W-NW of RIC from mid-aftn into early evening. Storms should again quickly diminish with loss of heating after sunset. Lingering showers will end by late this evening with clearing and quiet wx and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Surface high drifts out into the western Atlantic through midweek, with resultant return flow bumping temperatures up each day. Meanwhile, the upper trough pushes toward the coast while dampening further Monday night and Tuesday. A bit more in the way of afternoon cloud cover, but still expect MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/KG, along with a narrow corridor of more robust low to mid-level lapse rates, and PW remaining ~1.75-2". Convective chances will be highest on Monday, ramping up once again as low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes sends another weak cold front toward the area, and providing the trigger for another round of convection to develop in the mountains by early Mon aftn. Showers and storms are then expected to push east into the local area late Mon aftn into early Monday night. Highest storm chances remain confined across the north, but high end chance to low-end likely PoP is in place in anticipation of an uptick in convective activity. Afternoon high temps on Monday will generally be in the lower 90s and low temperatures Monday night will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Front washes out over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with isolated to scattered storms still expected to be focused (mainly) along and south of I-64, but a 20% PoP has been maintained for all zones on Tuesday. Aside from the showers, the other storm will be the building temperatures. Highs creep upward slightly Tuesday, but will be within a few degrees of climo, mainly in the lower 90s (heat indices mid to upper 90s). Early morning lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Biggest weather impact in the latter week period will be the building heat. Upper level ridging builds over the Eastern US for the mid to late week. Models coming into better agreement with respect to highs, with mid to upper 90s Wed/Thu now well supported by local thickness tool, MOS numbers, and given H85 temps in the 22- 24 C range. NBM continues to run a bit "cooler" and continued to blend in some of the warmer NBM 75th percentile numbers for each day. Still appears Thu is the warmer of the two days with the frontal passage looking to be later Thu night/early Friday attm. High temperatures then likely dip a few degrees on Friday, but still quite warm with highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures warm up again slightly next weekend, as the ridge builds over the region. Dew points will tend to mix out a few degrees each afternoon (especially for the western half of the forecast area) which should generally keep heat indices near to air temperatures, though we likely see at least a few spots approach heat advisory thresholds (105+) on Wednesday and (if trends hold) much of the area in heat headline range for Thursday, especially for areas closer to the coast. Equally important, low temperatures also remain very warm each night next week with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 70s Wed night. Chance PoP for pre-frontal trough convection continues on Thu, and again with the actual frontal passage on Friday. The upcoming weekend appears like it will be fairly dry at this point outside of a few isolated afternoon showers and storms. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions across area terminals early this afternoon should persist through the 18z TAF period. Exception may be at RIC late this afternoon into this evening. Some SCT thunderstorms have developed W-NW of the RIC terminal in the VA piedmont that could reach RIC and vicinity after 20z/4p. Brief flight restrictions (both CIG/VSBY) are possible with any heavier showers/storms. Smaller chances for any showers or storms to impact SBY/PHF after 22z/6pm, again with CIG/VSBY restrictions possible. Lesser chances farther east will preclude mention at all sites save for RIC at this time. Showers come to an end shortly after sunset with mid to high level clouds and VFR conditions expected to prevail overnight. Outlook: A typical summertime pattern remains in place this week, with additional isolated to scattered storms expected mainly each afternoon and evening. Instances of early morning fog and stratus will also be possible through the early part of the week. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Afternoon analysis shows broad high pressure off the SE coast with low pressure over the Midwest along a wavy stationary front. Local winds are SE 10-15 kt across the southern half of the area and SSW 10-15 kt from Cape Charles north as the ridge axis extending in from offshore bisects the region. Waves are around 1 foot in the bay and seas are 2-3 ft offshore. Expecting lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening vs what we saw yesterday with the stronger storms expected to stay mostly north of the waters. Winds become SSW 10-15 kt tonight but swing back to the SSE on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface trough. Winds will average around 15 kt in the Ches Bay with 10-15 kt likely in the rivers and Currituck Sound. Offshore, winds strengthen to 15-20 kt late Monday afternoon into the overnight period. Waves increase to 2-3 ft in the bay and seas also increase to 3-4 ft with at least a low chance for 5 ft seas possible for the northern coastal waters Monday evening into early Tuesday. Seas guidance has trended downward so will not be raising an Small Craft headlines at this time. Flow becomes W-SW by Tuesday morning as the gradient relaxes. Expecting sub-SCA conditions to continue on Wednesday as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Another area of low pressure to our north skirts east on Thursday with a surface trough extending to the south, again tightening the gradient with high pressure offshore. Winds increase to ~15 kt in the bay and 15- 20 kt offshore with seas forecast to build to 3-5 ft for the northern coastal waters. Low rip current risk at all the beaches today. Increasing seas for the northern beaches tomorrow results in a moderate risk with a low risk to the south. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM LONG TERM...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...RHR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 324 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-065>068-075>090-092-093- 095>100-512>525-181930- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Mecklenburg- Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland- Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent- Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City- Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Virginia Beach-Accomack-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 324 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the outlook area late Monday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511-181930- Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- 324 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and north central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the outlook area through early this evening. Some of the storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any storm and could result in flooding of urban or flood prone areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. The main threats will be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:31 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous power outages were reported near Hunts Game Preserve.
Tree was downed in Jarratt.
Several trees were downed.
Multiple trees were downed on Kings Highway near the county border.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1048314, 1048315, 1048316, 1048317.