NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 3:08 AM MST, 6 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 3:08 AM MST, 6 hours 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
408 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture will remain in place over southern Utah
through the rest of the week. Some moisture will spread into
northern Utah today into Friday. After a modest drying trend over
the weekend a more substantial increase in moisture is expected
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...Utah and southwest Wyoming
remain sandwiched between a ridge over the Great Basin and a
trough over the central United States, keeping flow aloft
generally light. This has allowed deep moisture to remain pooled
over southern Utah, with satellite derived PW values in the 1.0 to
1.2 inch range over that area. This combination of anomalous
moisture and light flow will again make conditions ripe for storms
to produce heavy rain capable of flash flooding, so going Flood
Watch looks good.
The ridge will adjust itself southward a bit this morning,
allowing a more southerly component of the flow to develop over
at least eastern portions of the area, allowing this moisture to
spread northward. East central and northeast Utah will see the
greatest increase in moisture, but some increase is anticipated
across the majority of northern Utah. Given that the northern Utah
moisture will initially be a bit high based in nature, any storms
that develop will be capable of producing gusty microburst winds.
Given the unstable airmass and increase in moisture, seems there
is not anywhere in the forecast area where one can rule out
convection this afternoon into early this evening and have thus
tweaked POPs up a bit for northern Utah.
On Friday, the majority of guidance indicates the ridge will
wobble back northward, thus bringing back more of a west to
northwest component to the flow aloft, ending the increase in
northern Utah moisture and eventually bringing the start of a
drying trend by Friday afternoon. Numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are still anticipated across southern Utah and
the higher terrain east of Interstate 15, but elsewhere the threat
of afternoon/evening convection looks to wane. Under the influence
of the ridge, high temperatures over northern Utah will tend to
stay within 5F of seasonal normals, with the moisture and cloud
cover keeping maxes a bit below climo over southern Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...A net eastward shift in the
longwave trough-ridge-trough pattern is expected through the first
half of the extended forecast period, bringing increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms area-wide instead of being confined to
central and southern Utah. Temperatures will start out around normal
to start the weekend, if not a few degrees above, then become ~5-10F
above average across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Sunday
and Monday, then transition to near, or even slightly below normal,
Tuesday forward.
At the beginning of the weekend, the forecast area will remain on
the eastern periphery of a broad ridge which will help maintain a
drier northwesterly flow overhead. This ridge will continue to shift
eastward through the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture advection across Utah and southwest Wyoming.
While the early weekend northwesterly flow won't completely dry out
the area, it will help to consolidate diurnally driven convective
activity to the southern portions of Utah, especially on Sunday.
Flash flooding is still likely to remain an elevated risk in
southern Utah as layer PWAT values look to remain at, or above, 1
inch and storm motions look to remain slow. The translating ridge
will crest overhead around Sunday and Monday, bringing some of the
highest temperatures of the period to mainly northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming, as this area is progged to see the most
substantial increase in H7 temperatures. Monday will begin to see a
transition to deeper southerly flow, bringing more of a sub-tropical
moisture tap to the area.
With persistent deep southerly flow in place on Monday, some of the
higher PWAT values are expected to spread across the area as we set
into a more typical monsoonal moisture pattern. In addition to this
increase in moisture, model guidance has been consistent in
progressing an offshore trough over the northern Intermountain
region around the Tuesday and Wednesday period. With the increase in
moisture and trough dynamics to the north, thinking that Tuesday
(and potentially Wednesday) could feature some rather widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area. The
higher shear environment in northern Utah could even provide some
potential for severe convection, but this will ultimately depend on
the depth of the aforementioned trough and how much synoptic forcing
we see over the area. Per the 00Z ensemble suite, models are mostly
in favor of a shallower mean trough to the north, but 25% of
guidance is pointing toward a deeper trough which may favor more
aggressive convection over the forecast area. Will continue to
monitor trends here, but in general, Tuesday looks like the best day
for widespread convection with coverage of showers and
thunderstorms gradually decreasing Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will be maintained over the KSLC
terminal with afternoon build-ups anticipated over the surrounding
terrain. Surrounding build-ups may develop into showers, but are not
expected to move over the terminal. Light southerly drainage flow
will transition to a light northerly flow after 18Z with scattered
clouds around 20kft AGL. Gusty and erratic outflows in excess of 30
mph may be possible after 20Z.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming....Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated, primarily near terrain, from KLGU to
KDTA, with the biggest threat being gusty and erratic outflow winds.
From ~KDTA southward, expect more widely scattered diurnally driven
shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall possible.
Terminals with vicinity, or prevailing, TS may see gusty and erratic
outflows in excess of 40 mph. A reduction to IFR conditions will be
possible due to VIS restrictions in locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will be maintained over the KSLC
terminal with afternoon build-ups anticipated over the surrounding
terrain. Surrounding build-ups may develop into showers, but are not
expected to move over the terminal. Light southerly drainage flow
will transition to a light northerly flow after 18Z with scattered
clouds around 20kft AGL. Gusty and erratic outflows in excess of 30
mph may be possible after 20Z.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming....Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated, primarily near terrain, from KLGU to
KDTA, with the biggest threat being gusty and erratic outflow winds.
From ~KDTA southward, expect more widely scattered diurnally driven
shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall possible.
Terminals with vicinity, or prevailing, TS may see gusty and erratic
outflows in excess of 40 mph. A reduction to IFR conditions will be
possible due to VIS restrictions in locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture pooled over southern Utah will
spread northward through Friday. The greatest increase in moisture
will be over northeast Utah but there is at least some potential
for showers and thunderstorms across the entire state by late this
afternoon. Over southern Utah, heavy rain will be the main threat,
but over northern Utah where the moisture will be higher based,
there is a threat of gusty and erratic winds from microbursts. The
more moist airmass will stay over northern Utah tomorrow before it
retreats south over the weekend. There is the potential for a more
substantial moisture surge early next week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ123-124-128>131.
WY...None.
&&
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Webber
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