Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, September 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
202 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Similar ambient weather conditions are in place today across the CWA
with breezy, southerly winds between 15-25 mph with very warm
temperatures. Broadly cyclonic flow remains overhead with a
shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains, and the
surface trough remains situated along TX/NM state line northward
into the TX/OK PH region where a weak surface cyclone is evident in
southeastern Colorado as per recent regional METAR data. Moist,
isentropic ascent in the mid-levels is not as prevalent as
yesterday, though is evident by the altocu and ACCAS fields over the
northeastern Rolling Plains and eastern TX PH. An additional cu
field, albeit shallow, is present near the edge of the Mescalero
Escarpment where surface flow is veered. Subsidence will continue to
increase aloft this afternoon as the shortwave trough departs the
CWA, and coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be isolated across
most of the I-27 corridor and western South Plains with the
possibility of widely-scattered thunderstorms in the extreme
southern TX PH. Deep-layer shear has improved slightly compared to
yesterday (e.g. effective bulk wind differences near 30 kt) as the
high-level/250 mb jet streak near 50 kt noses into the region, which
should result in briefly organized convection particularly in the
extreme southern TX PH. The strongest cores will be capable of
producing wind gusts near 50 mph in addition to small hail, and
brief, heavy rainfall. The thunderstorm potential will begin to wane
after dark as the boundary-layer stabilizes, ending altogether prior
to midnight CDT.

Breezy winds overnight will keep temperatures mild, similar to what
was observed early this morning. Temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer tomorrow as geopotential heights rise from the sub-tropical
ridge over Mexico shifting northward, with continued breezy
conditions as the surface trough remains intact ahead of the next
shortwave trough pivoting over the Four Corners. Thunderstorms are
not expected tomorrow as subsidence continues to increase aloft from
the expanding sub-tropical ridge.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Very little chances of precipitation will consume the long term
forecast with an upper ridge in control of the weather. An upper
ridge will begin building over the Southern Plains this weekend
through at least the middle of next week. This will keep
temperatures consistently above seasonal averages on the order of
5-10 degrees during the daytime. Operational models then diverge
for the second half of next week with the GFS suppressing the
ridge much faster than the ECMWF. Ensembles seem to suggest the
stronger ridge may win out but some monsoonal moisture may begin
to stream overhead late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. There is a chance
of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening at all three
terminals however confidence is low that the TAF sites will be
affected. Storms that form may produce brief downpours and gusty
downdraft winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
202 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

TXZ021>044-161915-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
202 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle, the Interstate 27 corridor, and western
South Plains this afternoon. This activity will advance eastward
before diminishing over the eastern South Plains or western Rolling
Plains late this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts around 50 mph, small hail, and brief, heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
337 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

TXZ028-029-034-035-152100-
Hockley TX-Lamb TX-Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
337 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Lubbock, northeastern Hockley, southwestern Hale and southeastern
Lamb Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Anton, or 14 miles northeast of Levelland, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shallowater and Anton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 10216 3374 10228 3394 10208 3370 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 232DEG 9KT 3373 10218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

DWK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
509 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

TXZ040-152245-
Terry TX-
509 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Terry County
through 545 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brownfield, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brownfield, Locketville and Meadow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 10231 3321 10246 3339 10235 3339 10225
      3322 10207 3317 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 228DEG 10KT 3319 10232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

DWK