Drought in Texas, September 1 to 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected across our CWA
for the remainder of this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms tapping into PWATs between 1.5"
to 1.75" will result in efficient rainfall rates capable of
producing flash flooding problems that are ongoing currently in
Lubbock County, especially in low lying urban areas. Model guidance
has struggled to pick up on a secondary upper level low over the
Rolling Plains positioned upstream from the primary upper low over
northern Old Mexico. The secondary upper low combined with a
sharpening trough over the High Plains interacting with the primary
disturbance over Old Mexico has resulted in a pronounced axis of
upper level divergence bisecting our CWA diagonally from NW to SE.
The divergence axis aloft should gradually pivot to the south and
west over the next 3-6hrs as a short wave ejects north from the
primary upper low through the Permian Basin into the South Plains by
early this evening. Subsidence in the wake of the intersecting upper
level waves may provide breaks in moderate to heavy rainfall until
later tonight as the primary upper low moves west across Old Mexico.

The secondary upper low currently over the Rolling Plains merges
with the High Plains upper trough overnight, with better response in
the surface pressure and wind fields during the day tomorrow. Drier
air aloft will gradually build in behind the upper trough, with
lingering off and on showers continuing tomorrow mostly across
southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Some
uncertainty remains in details tomorrow, given the guidance
struggling with todays evolution of upper waves but drier air
eventually working top-down across the northern half of our CWA can
eventually be expected behind the upper trough over the course of
the day tomorrow. The drier air aloft and decreasing cloud cover
will see warmer temperatures than today, mostly in the mid 80s, but
humid, with the wide swath of beneficial rainfall across our area.
Patchy fog and low clouds can also be expected overnight through at
least the first half of the morning, especially in the southern
South Plains and Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Notably drier air will be spreading over the region by early Friday
morning as upper level ridging finally manages to expand slightly
eastward. The associated modest height rises and subsidence will
push the best moisture southeast of our area and keep precip
chances limited to only a small chance of convection across
southeastern portions of the forecast area where moisture may hold
on a bit longer. Otherwise, expect a drier day compared to
earlier this week with continued moderate temperatures near
seasonal averages. Shower/storm chances will return on Saturday as
an upper shortwave transits around the edge of the ridge. Overall
coverage is expected to be relatively limited given a lack of
widespread deep moisture, but sufficient forcing supports a
continued mention of PoPs Saturday afternoon and evening. During
the second half of the weekend into early next week, guidance is
in good agreement suggesting broad upper level troughing will
linger over much of the south-central CONUS as the core of the
upper ridge remains over the Great Basin. Midlevel moisture also
looks to remain fairly plentiful across Texas during this
timeframe, suggesting daily isolated or scattered convection is
feasible each afternoon into next week, especially across southern
and eastern portions of the forecast area and will maintain
blended low mentionable PoPs accordingly. Relatively cool
temperatures will also continue across the region through at least
the middle of next week. Looking even further ahead, there are a
few hints of an unsettled pattern continuing towards next weekend
as tropical moisture increases across the state. /DWK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

Rain has come to an end across the region early this morning. With
the recent heavy rainfall low ceilings and/or visibilities are
expected to develop around LBB and PVW this morning which may drop
conditions into IFR conditions. These low ceilings should
dissipate late this morning with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms
developing this afternoon however coverage will be much more
limited hence confidence in a direct impact to a TAF site remains
small at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
249 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

TXZ021>044-012000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
249 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall
are expected to continue across the region for the remainder of this
afternoon and evening. Periods of heavy rainfall may continue to
produce flash flooding until later this evening, especially in low
lying urban areas. The heaviest rainfall is expected to taper off by
sunset, with lingering light to moderate rainfall possible across the
southern South Plains and Rolling Plains through the overnight
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday, decreasing in coverage from north to south throughout the
day. Thunderstorm chances return across much of the region on
Saturday, with low chances for thunderstorms also continuing into
early next week across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.