Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, May 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow.
Bottom Line Up Top: Conditions will be favorable for severe
storms along and south of a quasi-stationary front this afternoon
into early this evening. The front is currently setup from near
Morton, TX to Clarendon, TX, to Seiling, OK. Very large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats, with a low tornado threat.
Flash flooding could also occur as some training of storms is
possible along the front. Another round of storm activity is
possible late in the evening and overnight and this would expand
to include most of the Panhandles with scattered coverage. These
storms would pose more of a large hail threat and could linger
into the morning hours Tuesday.

Details: The latest upper level analysis places a shortwave trough
and possible closed low over the central part of the NE/UT state
line. A belt of modest southwesterly winds extends from northern
New Mexico up into southeast Nebraska. At the surface, a cold
front has stalled near Morton to Clarendon to Seiling. Dew points
behind the cold front were in the 40s, but along and ahead of the
front dew points were in the 60 to 65 range.

A cumulus field was already noted within the moist warm sector
near the front. Lift should become sufficient for CI by around
21z, and this is when storms could erupt and quickly become
severe given large MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Effective shear
early in the convective cycle is modest with values around 35 to
45 knots. This is mostly due to the veering wind profiles. The
stronger southwesterlies aloft remain north of the area. A few
supercells may develop along the front late this afternoon, but
with the mean flow being largely parallel to the front, some
training and clustering of storms is possible (which could lead to
flash flooding given PWATs in the 90th percentile range). Any
supercell that does stay discrete could quickly become capable of
baseball size hail and damaging winds of 70 mph (locally higher).
Storms will likely produce some strong outflow winds given DCAPE
on the order of 1500 J/kg and LCL values around 1500 m.

Clustering storms will likely become outflow dominant, with
additional storms possibly forming on the outflow going into early
evening. The tornado threat does not look as concerning based on
the latest data which keeps low level SRH on the marginal side
and LCLs on the high side. However, going into the evening the low
level jet does increase as surface winds become more easterly
(these easterly winds may be largely due to outflow). The net
effect is to greatly increase hodograph lengths and curvature in
the lowest 3km. If any storms become rooted at the surface, a
tornado threat would exist after dark. However, this seems
unlikely unless the most aggressive model (RAP) verifies with very
large moisture/theta-E advection. Current thinking is that the
RAP is way to high on the near surface moisture due to convective
feedback. If dew points rise to near 70 in the Texas Panhandle
late this evening, then the RAP scenario may unfold. Otherwise,
storms that form overnight behind the front would be elevated and
pose more of a large hail threat. This large hail threat overnight
could be a bit more expansive than currently advertised if
moisture advection is more robust, especially considering the deep
layer shear increases in response to a secondary 500mb jet streak
in the area.

This overnight round of elevated convection could linger into the
morning hours Tuesday, mostly favoring the northern and eastern
half of the combined Panhandles where isentropic lift will be
maximized. Widespread stratus will form overnight along and north
of the front as moisture increases (also helped by rain cooled
air). This could lead to some periods of drizzle as well through
the morning hours. There is some indication that clouds will erode
near the frontal boundary which should remain draped across the
far southeast zones tomorrow afternoon. If this does happen,
destabilization would occur quickly and another round of storms,
possibly severe, could materialize (parameters are expected to be
similar to today's).

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday.
For Wednesday night, latest model trends continue support the
scenario that the heaviest and most extensive precipitation will
shift southward further downstate as cool surface high pressure
builds into the region. As a result, a decent north to south pop
gradient is expected, ranging from slight chance values across the
OK Panhandle to likely values in the far southeast TX Panhandle.
Mainly light amounts of QPF are foreseen Wednesday night.

For Thursday and Thursday night, some lingering showers are possible
Thursday morning across the southern Texas Panhandle, with slight
chance pops utilized. Thursday afternoon will likely be dry for
all of the OK and TX Panhandles. The next minor upper level shortwave
trof is then anticipated to track into eastern NM and eastern CO
Thursday afternoon, and should assist in the development of showers
and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of eastern NM and eastern
CO late in the afternoon, then move eastward into the forecast area
Thursday night. Chance pops offered by the NBM for this time frame
look plausible and were incorporated into the grids.

A near repeat performance is foreseen later Friday afternoon and
night as yet another minor upper level shortwave trof tracks through
the area from eastern CO and eastern NM. Showers and thunderstorms
should develop over eastern NM and eastern CO Friday afternoon, then
head eastward into the OK and TX Panhandles late Friday afternoon
and night. NBM pops capture this scenario and were utilized.

Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast to return to the
area Saturday through Monday as a flat ridge of high pressure
prevails. A weak cold front may impact the region Monday night
into Tuesday with pops across northern zones during this time
period based on the progged upper level pattern.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  68  49  70 /  40  50  50  20
Beaver OK                  56  64  45  72 /  80  60  30   5
Boise City OK              50  60  43  69 /  60  40  20  10
Borger TX                  59  68  50  73 /  60  60  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              58  66  49  72 /  50  40  50  20
Canyon TX                  58  70  49  70 /  40  50  50  20
Clarendon TX               62  72  52  68 /  70  50  60  20
Dalhart TX                 51  61  45  69 /  60  30  30  10
Guymon OK                  54  65  46  74 /  80  40  20  10
Hereford TX                58  71  49  71 /  30  50  50  20
Lipscomb TX                58  65  47  71 /  80  70  40  10
Pampa TX                   58  66  48  70 /  60  60  50  20
Shamrock TX                62  73  51  70 /  70  60  60  20
Wellington TX              64  79  53  71 /  80  60  70  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
326 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
326 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Some storms may become severe over eastern and
southern sections of the area, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary hazards. An isolated tornado is also possible across
the southeast Texas Panhandle. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 10 PM CDT this evening for the southeast Texas
Panhandle. In addition, the stronger storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flooding
or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible across the area Wednesday through
Friday. Some storms Wednesday afternoon and evening may become
severe across eastern and southern sections of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, the stronger storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, which could result in localized
flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation will likely be needed through this
evening.

02

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
345 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

TXZ020-312130-
Collingsworth TX-
345 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central
Collingsworth County through 430 PM CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Quail, or 6 miles west of Wellington, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Lutie, Samnorwood and Quail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 10038 3491 10046 3518 10020 3518 10000
      3486 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 237DEG 27KT 3487 10032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Guerrero

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

TXZ019-020-312145-
Donley TX-Collingsworth TX-
411 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Collingsworth and southeastern Donley Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Memphis, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hedley and Quail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 10075 3504 10048 3475 10031 3475 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 241DEG 14KT 3473 10062

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Guerrero