Tornadoes and Hail in Florida, May 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue moving west southwest
across the interior this afternoon and expect more coverage once
these reach the west coast sea breeze near the west coast later
this afternoon and evening. All of the convection will move out
into the gulf later this evening with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight. Wednesday looks like a repeat of today as
the east to northeast low level flow persists with enough moisture
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The main
difference will be the timing as the east to northeast flow will
be a little stronger bringing the convection westward a couple of
hours sooner than today.

For Thursday the easterly flow will persist, but weaker than
Wednesday. Plenty of moisture will still be in place, especially
from the Interstate 4 corridor southward, to allow more scattered
to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection with the
highest PoPs over the southern interior and southwest Florida.

For Friday through Saturday the forecast is highly dependent on
the future development or lack thereof of a possible tropical
system moving across the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At this time
expect breezy conditions to develop Friday into Saturday with
scattered to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms,
highest rain chances across the south.

Early next week easterly flow returns with a pretty typical summer
thunderstorm pattern with scattered convection each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will cause
brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys along with some higher wind gusts.
Winds will be out of the east to northeast at 7 to 10 knots,
except becoming west to northwest later this afternoon with the
sea breeze at TPA, PIE, and SRQ. Light east to northeast winds
return later this evening then increase to 7 to 10 knots again
during Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain easterly for the next few days, though a shift
to onshore is expected with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late each
afternoon and evening, moving offshore from land. No headlines are
expected, though winds could briefly increase to the 15 to 20
knot range each evening. Late in the week an area of low pressure
could move across the southeast gulf increasing winds to advisory
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy east to northeast winds will lead to rather high dispersion
values Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels through the week with no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  10  40
FMY  71  91  72  91 /  40  60  20  60
GIF  71  90  71  92 /  10  50  10  40
SRQ  71  90  71  89 /  40  60  20  40
BKV  67  92  67  92 /  20  40  10  40
SPG  74  89  75  88 /  40  50  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 3

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
412 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

FLZ239-312045-
Inland Levy FL-
412 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Levy
County through 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Trenton, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chiefland, Bronson, Manattee Road, Andrews, Fanning Springs and
Manatee Springs State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 8285 2958 8276 2956 8275 2957 8266
      2954 8265 2954 8257 2934 8270 2949 8298
      2954 8297 2956 8295 2958 8294 2959 8294
      2959 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 041DEG 8KT 2954 8273

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
438 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

FLZ139-142-239-242-312130-
Coastal Citrus FL-Inland Citrus FL-Coastal Levy FL-Inland Levy FL-
438 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Citrus and
Levy Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Manattee Road to 11 miles southwest of
Williston Highlands to 6 miles north of Crystal River Airport.
Movement was west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Williston, Chiefland, Bronson, Homosassa Springs, Beverly Hills,
Williston Highlands, East Bronson, Crystal River Airport, Manattee
Road, Fowlers Bluff, Black Diamond, Homosassa, Andrews, Williston
Municipal Airport, Sugarmill Woods, Inglis, Fanning Springs, Otter
Creek, Lecanto and Citronelle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 8317 2932 8314 2935 8306 2959 8294
      2957 8266 2954 8265 2954 8256 2948 8255
      2948 8241 2922 8240 2921 8254 2904 8254
      2905 8247 2901 8239 2870 8246 2869 8272
      2878 8279 2910 8289 2907 8302 2921 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 085DEG 24KT 2953 8291 2921 8266 2896 8258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW