Prolonged drought conditions coupled with strong winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels contributed to critical fire weather conditions across the Texas Panhandle. A wildfire developed in Deaf Smith County and continued into Oldham County before it was eventually contained.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
Prolonged drought conditions coupled with strong winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels contributed to critical fire weather conditions across the Texas Panhandle. A wildfire developed in Deaf Smith County and continued into Oldham County before it was eventually contained.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 5:27 PM CST, 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions will continue at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Monday. Southwest winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 35 knots
will diminish to around 15 to 25 knots after 00Z to 03Z Sunday and
then increasing again to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 35
to 40 knots after 17Z to 20Z Sunday.
Schneider
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022/
SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow night...
Upper level high pressure continues to dominate the Southern
Plains, leading to extremely warm temperatures across the area.
Some record high temps are expected to be broken this afternoon.
Upstream there is a mid to upper level trough digging over the
western CONUS. Flow aloft today will be zonal and transitioning
more to the southwest from the approaching trough.
Today highs are expected to be in the upper 90s to lower triple
digits with H85 temperatures approaching 33 degrees Celsius. As
this LLTR builds in over the area a surface trough is digging over
eastern NM into the western combined Panhandles. This is creating
some breezy winds in the 20 to 25 mph. A low level jet will start
to ramp up here in the next few hours leading to some higher wind
gusts later in the afternoon around 35 mph. This surface trough is
also bringing in drier air displacing dewpoints in the 40 to 60
range further east and replacing with dewpoints in the 20s. With
such hot temperatures and low dewpoints RH values are expected to
fall into the single digits. As the higher dewpoints get pushed
east this will strengthen a dryline which will set up anywhere in
the far eastern stack of the TX Panhandles to the far western
portions of OK. Depending on where the dryline sets up some
isolated thunderstorms could develop later this afternoon into
evening. These storms will be very high based and pose a damaging
wind threat even if measurable rain is not observed. If a
supercell can get going some large hail up to 1.5" will be
possible with the strongest updraft. However, winds up to 75 mph
will be the primary threat this afternoon into evening. Again,
this is mainly for the far eastern stack of counties in the Texas
Panhandle into western Oklahoma.
Overnight, gradient driven winds are expected to remain breezy in
the 15 to 20 mph range. Higher wind gusts should diminish as the
area decouples from stronger winds aloft. The low level jet is
expected to ramp up over eastern portions of the combined
Panhandles to around 50 kts at H7. Tomorrow, the approaching H5
trough should dampen the ridge over the area a bit and lower the
temperatures slightly. Only slightly lower, with many areas still
hitting at least the upper 90s. H85 temperatures will be the
highest over eastern portions of the FA and closer to the 30 to 32
degree Celsius range. The approaching trough will also introduce
some higher winds aloft with an associated jet rounding the base.
This will induce a leeside low over portions of SE CO leading to a
tighter pressure gradient. Winds are progged to be closer to the
25 to 35 mph range with wind gusts up to 45 mph possible as winds
in the lower levels will be higher as well. Once again, RH values
are expected to drop into the single digits, as the dryline mixes
even further to the east, leading to a concern for critical fire
weather conditions once again. A Wind Advisory may be needed
mainly for western and central Oklahoma Panhandle where winds
could be in the 35 to 39 mph range for sustained winds.
Hoffeditz
Fire Weather...
For today, low RH of around 8 to 15 percent combined with breezy
winds will lead to much of the area in critical fire weather
conditions. RFTI values are expected to be has high as 5 to 8 in
the central to western combined Panhandles.
For tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be a couple of degrees
cooler. However, RH values are expected to be in the 5 to 10
percent range across the entire combined Panhandles. Also, winds
will be much stronger as a leeside low develops over SE CO and an
approaching upper level trough introduces some higher winds aloft.
Winds are expected to be out of the southwest around 25 to 35 mph
range with some areas possibly getting into the 35 to 39 mph range
mainly in the western Oklahoma Panhandle. There will be some
eastern counties that will be left out of any fire highlights as
they have received more rain over a longer period of time and are
further along in the greenup process. Areas to the north, central,
and western combined Panhandles will still have some concerns for
Critical Fire Weather conditions as greenup is taking longer due
to the prolonged drought. Some areas have seen significant
rainfall with many bar ditches turning green. This may prevent
roadside fire starts. However, much of the rangelands continue to
have dead and dry fuels being impacted by the extremely low RH's.
Hoffeditz
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Bottom Line Up Top: After another hot day with fire weather
concerns on Monday, cooler temperatures and increasing rain
chances appear likely Tuesday and beyond.
Details: The latest model guidance has continued the trend of
increasing rain chances as a long wave trough moves out over the
central CONUS and high pressure moves over Mexico. This pattern
generally favors moisture transport from the subtropics with
periodic upper level shortwaves moving through the southwest flow
aloft. The 700mb theta-E plume that has been situated more over
OK and the Rolling Plains of Texas will shift north and west,
engulfing most of the Panhandles by late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The big question at this time remains with the evolution of a cold
front which is currently progged to stall in a southwest to
northeast fashion Tuesday afternoon. Models are shifting the front
almost into Lubbock's area Tuesday before stalling and possibly
retreating back to the north on Wednesday.
Where this frontal boundary sets up as the subtropical moisture
increases with shortwave activity will be key, as this will be the
focus area for the deepest lift and best moisture convergence.
Modest upslope flow may also favor storm activity moving off the
New Mexico Mountains each afternoon/evening. Moisture looks rich
south of the boundary with dew points in the 60s (ahead of a
dryline which will be in eastern New Mexico). Given orientation of
boundary and overall deep layer steering flow, training storms
and flooding do appear to be possible near the front. Severe
weather will also be possible mainly south of the front with ample
heating and instability along with modest effective shear.
Again, the emphasis here is that the position of the front will
be key for where the greatest potential for storms and potentially
heavy rain will exist late Tuesday, but really more Wednesday
through Friday. Those that end up on the cool side of the front
may not see much rain at all, while those near and south of the
front have much higher chances. Right now even though models and
ensembles are insistent that heavy rain may setup over the Texas
Panhandle, this could easily change if the front slips further
south than expected or fails to retreat going later into the week.
Ward
FIRE WEATHER...Monday...
Monday looks to be the last hot, dry and windy day for a while.
High temperatures are not expected to be as warm as the previous
two days, but highs in the low to mid 90s will be common. A
dryline is expected to setup in western OK which will leave the
Panhandles high and dry. Expect RH values to drop into the single
digits for all but the eastern Panhandles which will be in the
teens. Breezy southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph will be common
leading to RFTI values maxing out around 3 to 5 with some isolated
6s. With fuels in a transitional state across most of the area
(mainly green in the east and cured in the west), the concern for
critical fire weather will be in the west and perhaps central
zones. Recent rains have helped, yet with RFTI values near 5 or
more, the area would need to be solid green to avoid the critical
designation which it is not. Hopefully precipitation chances will
pan out towards the middle and end of next week and help put an
end to the fire weather concerns for a while.
Ward
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Armstrong-
Carson-Dallam-Deaf Smith-Hansford-Hartley-Hutchinson-Moore-
Oldham-Palo Duro Canyon-Potter-Randall-Sherman.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for Armstrong-Carson-Dallam-Deaf Smith-Hansford-Hartley-
Hutchinson-Moore-Ochiltree-Oldham-Palo Duro Canyon-Potter-
Randall-Sherman.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Cimarron-Texas.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for Beaver-Cimarron-Texas.
&&
11/99Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 359 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-291100- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 359 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. A few thunderstorms will be possible through this evening across the eastern Texas Panhandle. Any storms that form will have the potential for damaging winds and large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM this evening for the eastern and southeastern Texas Panhandle. Critical fire weather is expected to continue for the western and central combined Panhandles through early evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 9 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday and Monday, particularly in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the western and central Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms may occur Tuesday night through Friday. Storms may have the potential in some areas to be strong to severe. Some localized flooding is also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Emergency Managers and spotter groups should be ready for possible activation through this evening. Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for elevated to critical fire weather conditions on the afternoons of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Midpoint Fire (which started as the 147 fire) started in Deaf Smith county but quickly advanced into Oldham County before it was eventually contained. The fire burned approximately 3717 acres.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1033211.