New Mexico, 2022High Wind in New Mexico, May 28, 2022
May 28, 2022 · NWS ABQ · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
Memorial Day weekend and the end of the month of May saw a return to a springtime high wind pattern across northern and central New Mexico. As a Pacific Northwest storm system approached the west coast on May 28, 2022, it steered a potent jet across New Mexico.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Tropical storms and surge
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- Wind
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- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Memorial Day weekend and the end of the month of May saw a return to a springtime high wind pattern across northern and central New Mexico. As a Pacific Northwest storm system approached the west coast on May 28, 2022, it steered a potent jet across New Mexico. Strengthening southwest flow aloft, hot daytime temperatures, and deep mixing resulted in widespread windy conditions across the area. These wind gusts were generally around 40 to 50 mph, but Las Vegas and Tucumcari did briefly measure high wind gusts.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 10:32 AM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 28, 10:32 AM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1132 AM MDT Sat May 28 2022
.UPDATE...
Overall not a lot of change in the short term forecast. Winds should
begin to increase across the state over the next hour or two with
wind speeds around 30-40 mph and a few gusts to 50 mph. Roswell
currently sitting at 101 degrees for air temp and will likely need to
push that high temperature forecast higher. Record high for the day
is 105 which is the current forecast. Winds tomorrow may not be quite
as high as previously forecast but still higher than what we expect
for today. Today may actually be the higher fire weather threat given
that there could be more low level moisture tomorrow and lower
temperatures keeping relative humidity a little higher. There may not
be as many widespread single digit RH tomorrow but still below 15
percent most areas. Red flag warnings look on track.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
TAFs are pretty much a wind forecast. There will be some high clouds
today so may see some broken/overcast 250 at several terminals.
Otherwise the main issue will be wind gusts and any blowing dust that
may kick up to lower visibility. Wind gusts are forecast to be just
below 35 knots at KABQ so may need to monitor for an airport weather
warning if winds go stronger. Better chances of needing a warning
tomorrow afternoon. Highest wind gusts are expected for KLVS this
afternoon. Winds may not decrease much overnight over the mountainous
areas so KSAF and KLVS could have higher winds. Low level wind shear
is a possibility as well but looking to stay below criteria to put
in the TAFs. Mountain wave activity may increase overnight as well
given the jet stream expected to increase.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM MDT Sat May 28 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A very windy pattern develops today through Memorial Day as strong
southwest winds are expected areawide. With exceptionally dry
conditions, an extreme fire weather pattern is also expected through
Memorial Day. Ongoing fires or any new starts will have the potential
to spread rapidly in this pattern. Fortunately, a good change in the
weather pattern is currently forecast by the middle of next week as
beneficial moisture begins to seep into eastern New Mexico and then
towards the Rio Grande Valley. This will increase chances for
afternoon thunderstorms, especially Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The overall weather pattern hasn't changed in the short term.
Southwest winds will be increasing today for many areas. Have added
a few zones to the existing Wind Advisory where guidance values have
increased. Near record heat is forecast for a large portion of
eastern and parts of central NM this afternoon. With the forecast
high of 105 degrees at Roswell, the local criteria for a Heat
Advisory is met and would tie the record for today, so have gone
ahead with that. That said, satellite imagery indicates a
considerable batch of high clouds will move from west to east over
the forecast area today. That may help moderate winds and
temperatures but leaning toward any moderation not being
significant. For Sunday, southwest winds will be just as strong as
today or even stronger, so another Wind Advisory will be likely if
forecast trends continue unchanged. Highs Sunday will be a few
degrees cooler overall and even slightly below normal west of the
Continental Divide. Guidance pops indicate a slight chance for a
shower or storm over the Northwest Mountains near the Colorado
border Sunday but confidence is low any cells will materialize.
Areas of blowing dust and smoke are also likely through Sunday.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
By Sunday night, the center of the H5 PacNW low will be centered over
northern UT where it stays through at least Monday. Strong southwest
flow stays in place across NM Monday, although a little less
compared to Sunday's forecast winds. 700mb winds Monday afternoon
will generally be 30-40 knots while the lee-side surface low deepens
to ~989mb. With deep mixing still in place, southwesterly surface
winds will stay strong, and another round of widespread wind
highlights looks likely.
As noted by the previous shift, this PacNW low has slowed down in
exiting towards the central plains. Models depict this low staying
over UT Tuesday morning before weakening significantly into an open
wave by the evening. Additionally, the backdoor cold front now noses
into northeastern NM about 24 hours earlier than originally
forecast. This has changed the wind forecast for Tuesday. The past
several days, models have depicted the core of the polar jet focusing
across eastern NM, keeping strong winds in the forecast for areas
along the east of the central mountain chain. However, this new trend
with a slower and rapidly weakening low now means that flow aloft has
trended down for Tuesday, and surface wind speeds have been reduced
accordingly.
Return flow still looks to set up across the east Tuesday, helping to
usher in better low-level moisture. The extended forecast still looks
to be on track for the most part as to what has been advertised. With
the dryline sharpening along the NM/TX border Tuesday, this will lead
to thunderstorms across far eastern NM through the evening. Then
outflow from these thunderstorms along with the aforementioned
backdoor cold front will help push this low-level moisture farther
westward into the RGV Wednesday. This will support better coverage of
thunderstorms, especially along and east of the central mountain
chain with perhaps more isolated storms within the RGV. Additional
outflow should help to push the moisture farther westward one more
day towards the Continental Divide for Thursday, again allowing for
better coverage for storms across central and eastern NM. While
models are trying to hold steady with this beneficial precipitation
late next week, a troughing pattern does look to redevelop across the
PacNW at the same time. Thus, this redevelops southwesterly flow
across western NM. This could interfere with how far westward the
low-level moisture is able to make it. Stay tuned, and fingers
crossed!
15
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...DAILY ROUNDS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY, THEN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FORECAST TUESDAY...
The upper ridge which was over New Mexico has moved to the east so
southwest winds will be increasing today. Today features the most
widespread extreme instability combined with above normal to near
record heat as well as extreme dryness, with about 8 to 14 hours of
single digit humidities for most of the forecast area. An incoming
batch of high clouds may help moderate conditions a little but any
moderation that does occur isn't anticipated to have much if any
impact on the overall forecast. Locally elevated to critical
conditions may persist overnight tonight as ridgetop winds don't
totally settle down and overnight humidity recoveries are bleak.
Sunday will see a repeat of widespread critical conditions as winds
will be similar to or stronger than today's, despite temperatures
cooling down a few degrees overall and significant stretches of
single digit humidities confined to mainly the East Central Plains.
Locally elevated to critical conditions may continue into the
overnight Sunday night as well, especially along and east of the
central mountain chain. Memorial Day will see additional cooling
west of the RGV but all ingredients for another day of widespread
critical conditions will be in place for most zones except the
Northwest Plateau, where at this time, winds will not be quite
strong enough to include in the Fire Weather Watch.
Tuesday is now appearing as if there will be widespread near
critical conditions, as a backdoor cold front makes quicker progress
into eastern New Mexico. Low level moisture may push west of the
central mountain chain Wednesday night but most convection looks to
stay over eastern New Mexico.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ102>109.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ202-205-210-212>216-221>234-237-239.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ238.
&&
High Wind, Northeast Highlands
- When
- May 28, 11:46 AM MST to 11:53 AM MST
- Where
- Northeast Highlands forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 35.480, -104.816 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
An ASOS station near Las Vegas measured a peak wind gust of 60 mph.
High Wind, Quay County
- When
- May 28, 2:12 PM MST to 2:15 PM MST
- Where
- Quay County forecast zone
- Measured
- 51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 35.104, -103.550 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
An ASOS station near Tucumcari measured a peak wind gust of 59 mph.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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- High Wind in California, May 28 to 29, 202265 kt wind · 11 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Wyoming, May 28, 202265 kt wind · 7 events
- Damaging Winds in South Dakota, May 28, 202265 kt wind · 7 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Winds in North Atlantic Coastal Waters, May 28, 202250 kt wind · 6 events
- High Wind in Texas, May 28, 202265 kt wind · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, May 28, 20221 in hail · 5 events
- Damaging Winds in Nevada, May 28 to 29, 202253 kt wind · 4 events
- High Wind in California, May 28 to 30, 202267 kt wind · 3 events
- Strong Wind in Oregon, May 28, 2022$1,000 · 2 events
- High Wind in Texas, May 28, 202259 kt wind · 2 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018369, 1018371.