Wildfire in Texas, March 30 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front moved through the CWA this morning with
much drier air in its wake. Breezy and gusty northwest winds will
continue this afternoon, weakening and shifting to northeast and
even east to southeast overnight as high pressure spreads east.
Clouds will be sparse. Some guidance is hinting at patchy early
morning fog near the coast, especially if winds drop off enough
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION... Strong, gusty southerly winds continue this morning
for KBRO and KHRL. However, those winds start to slacken ahead of
an incoming cold front that is now moving through KAPY. West to
northwest winds rapidly follow the passage of the cold front and
is slated to occur BY 14Z for KMFE and 15Z for KBRO and KHRL.
MVFR ceilings, even some IFR for KBRO, will remain ahead of the
cold front before becoming VFR in the wake of it. Amendments are
possible this morning as the front moves through. Late this
afternoon and into tonight, winds start to become more easterly
as high pressure pushes in from the north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 06Z sounding early this
morning showed winds of 42 knots at the bottom of the first
inversion, or around 960 mb, and a 60+ knot low level jet (LLJ)
around 870 mb. This is why winds have continued to gust up to 45 mph
along the I-69E/US-77 corridor through the overnight. That LLJ
shifts northeast as an H5 trough swings through Texas and drags a
Pacific cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley between 7AM (Rio Grande Plains) to 11AM (Lower Rio Grande
Valley) this morning. Behind the front, winds will turn
northwesterly and cause dew points and relative humidity values to
rapidly drop. While winds aren't forecast to be as gusty as they
were Tuesday, some gusts up to 35 mph will be possible, especially
out west. This is concerning because that will be collocated with
the lowest relative humidity values and create critical fire weather
conditions. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect this
afternoon. More on that in the Fire Weather discussion.

Temperatures are expected to reach well into the 90s this afternoon,
which is several degrees above normal for late March. A late
afternoon sea breeze is forecast to develop after about 4 or 5 PM
and will help cool those east of I-69E/US-77 the most before sunset.
As the sea breeze pushes inland Wednesday night, it will nudge dew
points higher and create the potential for patchy fog for portions
of Cameron and Willacy Counties. Elsewhere, very dry air in place
should allow for a large diurnal temperature swing with lower to
middle 50s expected for overnight lows. A weak secondary cold front
is expected Thursday morning as surface high pressure moves over
northeastern Texas. The location of this high will provide Deep
South Texas with an onshore flow Thursday afternoon, which should
allow for an earlier formation of the sea breeze to help keep
temperatures a degree or two cooler than Wednesday east of I-69E.
Otherwise, expect another day with temperatures will into 90s.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday): A wavy and fast paced
short wavelength 500mb flow may bring occasional low chances of rain
for portions of the BRO CWA through long-term period. Sensible
weather and wind/fire forecast looks benign through Sunday with a
weak pressure pattern setting up across Texas and the Western Gulf.
Best rain chances are expected across the east Friday as Wednesday's
cold front returns northward as a 500 mb trough passes to the east
and Sunday with a weak perturbation moving overhead. Moisture levels
will be limited below 800mb and content not that all robust so pops
will be kept around 20 percent with QPF/rainfall amounts not that
appreciable to reduce the spreading drought conditions. Temperature
trends through the weekend will be on a slow upward side with
nearly zonal flow, no cold fronts and the increasing sun angle as
we move into April.

The more significant weather maker looks to be a southern stream
trough advancing into the NW Mexico and the Desert SW Monday and
digging into Mexico and West Texas Tuesday. Both the EC/GFS are
tracking this mid-level trough and are in fair agreement. Expect
increasing winds, spiking temperatures (especially Tuesday and
Wednesday), and limited chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE:(Now through Thursday): Buoy42020 reported winds of 12 knots
with gusts up to 16 knots and seas running around 9 feet as of 3AM
CDT. A cold front sweeping through the Lower Texas Coast will keep
seas elevated much of the day, so have extended the Small Craft
Advisory for the Gulf waters until 7PM CDT (00Z) tonight.
Additionally, have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the Laguna
Madre through 10 AM CDT (15Z) this morning for the potential for
winds in excess of 20 knots until the cold front moves through. High
pressure slowly builds over eastern Texas and the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico Wednesday night into Thursday and will provide more
favorable marine conditions during the day Thursday.

(Thursday night through Sunday):A break in the adverse weather
pattern for the latter half of the week and weekend with a weak
pressure gradient setting up over the Gulf as well as Texas.
Wednesday's cold front returns northward Thursday and dissipates
by Friday providing a slight chance of rain along with moderate
easterly winds and lowering seas. Weak high pressure over the Deep
South and weak low pressure across the Bay of Campeche provides a
light east to southeast flow and a low sea regime for the Western
Gulf through the weekend.

(Now through Thursday): A Red Flag Warning is in effect today due
to critical fire weather conditions expected. Confidence is very
high in relative humidity values dropping to 8-20 percent this
afternoon. Elevated 20-foot winds exceeding 15 mph are also
expected across the entire region much of the afternoon. A Fire
Danger Statement will likely be issued Thursday due to RH values
running between 10 to 30 percent and 20-foot winds forecast less
than 15 mph, or below Red Flag Warning criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          93  60  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            94  56  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              95  57  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  55  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  63  74  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257-
     351.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>257-351-
     353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

54-BHM/65-Soria/68-McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
502 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

TXZ248>257-351-353-311015-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
502 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron through
9 AM Wednesday.

There is a High risk of rip currents along area beaches today.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM for all of Deep
South Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Fire weather conditions will be elevated across much of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Thursday due to very low
relative humidity values.

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the beaches of
South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach Thursday and Friday as
well as Monday and Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-311015-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
502 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre through
10 AM today.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf Waters through 7
PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower
Texas Coast Monday night and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.