Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, March 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
431 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

A NE to SW band of convection continues to march E across Ern OK
through NCntrl TX early this morning, with much of the convection
becoming more disorganized over the last couple of hours. However,
have noted some bowing structures that have recently developed
within the line as it begins to tap some slightly better
instability with MLCapes of 500-1000 J/Kg E of the line. However,
very steep and almost dry adiabatic lapse rates exist farther E in
the H700-500 lyr over much of E TX/NW LA/SW AR, although atop
steep capping noted in the 06Z KSHV raob. Sfc winds continue to
veer in advance of the line, suggesting that the convection will
remain mostly linear, with the progs suggesting that instability
will continue to gradually wane towards daybreak as the line
enters E TX/extreme SE OK. This trend appears to persist through
mid-morning as it enters portions of SCntrl AR/NW LA, before
instability begins to increase in response to diurnal heating. A
very intense Srly LLJ is expected to intensify further later this
morning to 60-70kts across Lower Toledo Bend Country N into N
LA/SCntrl AR, with these extreme shear values and increasing
instability contributing to an intensifying trend in the
convection after 15Z from SCntrl AR S into NCntrl LA, as the
parent trough axis now entering W TX begins to take on a negative
tilt through midday/early afternoon, increasing large scale
forcing once the convection nears the Lower MS Valley. Thus, an
increasing damaging wind and potential tornado threat will develop
late this morning before the convection races E of the area, and
thus have maintained severe wording in the forecast through early
afternoon. Another concern in the short term is the wind machine,
with portions of the LLJ mixing down resulting in frequent gusts
to 40-45 mph late last night and early this morning over portions
of E TX/Wrn LA. Have maintained the existing Wind Advisory as is
with SE OK/the Wrn counties in E TX through 12Z this morning as
the convection line should be nearing/clearing these area
near/shortly after the Advisory expiration, with winds decoupling
once the convective line continues shifting E.

Much drier air will undercut the ejecting trough axis later this
morning through the afternoon, thus ending the convection quickly
from W to E later this morning through the early afternoon.
However, the attendant cold front now moving through Wrn OK/Lower
TX Panhandle remains progged to quickly shift SE into SE OK/SW
AR/NE TX this afternoon, with just enough mainly elevated moisture
and forcing along the base of the trough yielding a narrow band of
sct convection along the front (as suggested by the CAMs) which
may affect these areas during the afternoon. The progs do maintain
steep elevated lapse rates this afternoon in this slightly
elevated convection, suggesting that an isolated severe threat
will continue for these areas yielding a potential large
hail/localized wind threat, before the convection exits the region
to the E by 00Z Thursday. In addition, post-frontal winds will
increase as well this afternoon which may near Wind Advisory
criteria, but given the brevity and marginal speeds, have opted to
hold off on another Advisory attm and allow later shifts to
monitor.

The pressure gradient will relax after sunset this evening as sfc
ridging builds SE through TX into the Sabine Valley, with wrap-
around cu expected to diminish by mid to late evening as well.
Thus, some radiational cooling within the cooling/dry air mass
will yield a return to below normal temps areawide, as readings
fall into the 40s areawide, with some upper 30s possible in the
protected areas of SE OK/adjacent SW AR. Another compact upper low
analyzed this morning over the Wrn Dakotas into NE WY is expected
to continue diving SSE around the ejecting longwave trough axis,
and should swing SE from the Red River Valley N through OK into
the Ozarks during the day Thursday, resulting in an increase in
elevated cloud cover affecting at least the Nrn half of the
region. Although some forcing exists in these elevated cigs, a
much drier air mass in place should prevent any returns aloft from
reaching the ground, and thus have maintained a dry forecast with
these cigs diminishing from W to E during the afternoon. Some
insolation and continued WNW winds should also result in near of
not slightly below normal temps areawide, with very cool
conditions returning under a mostly clear sky Thursday night.

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&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Wednesday/

Nearly zonal flow will take the place of our current trough as it
moves into the Ohio Valley to begin the long term forecast. We
continue to track a weak upper trough exiting the Intermountain West
and into the Great Plains Friday into Friday Night. The ECMWF has
finally come into line with a drier solution concerning this trough
passage late Friday Night into Saturday but am hesitant to drop pops
completely during these periods. Instead, have lowered pops to
slight chance variety with any precipitation on Saturday moving out
of our region quickly by late morning through the afternoon. We
should remain dry for Sunday but dirty zonal to WSW flow aloft
Sunday Night through Monday will combine with an increasing low
level jet and at the very least, isentropic forcing to support
increasing convective chances beginning Sunday Night but especially
Monday Afternoon into Monday Night. There are some temporal
differences in the medium range progs concerning onset of
precipitation with the ECMWF being about 24 hours slower bringing
precipitation into our region so have split the difference with the
much wetter GFS.

Isentropic forcing becomes more dynamic forcing in advance of an
upper level trough that will move out of the Four Corners Region of
the County and Northern Mexico, into the Southern Plains and the
Texas Hill Country for Monday Night into Tuesday. This promises to
bring much more in the way of scattered convection to the region but
did not bite on likely to widespread pops as some models suggest
given this being the day 7 portion of the 7-day forecast. Way to
early to determine the severity of the convection ahead of this next
trough passage but the GFS solution does support that possibility
given its more cutoff nature to the ejecting trough vs the ECMWF
which shows a much more sheared solution with its positive tilt.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 101 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs will continue across the region overnight, with these
cigs replacing the VFR cigs in place across extreme NE TX/SW AR to
start the 06Z TAF period by 08Z. While some sct -SHRA will be
possible overnight across portions of NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, a line
of deeper convection over ECntrl OK and NCntrl TX will continue to
shift E towards the region, affecting the TYR/GGG/LFK/TXK
terminals between 11-15Z, SHV around 15Z, and the ELD/MLU
terminals between 16-18Z. Winds gusts in excess of 40kts, reduced
vsbys, and low MVFR cigs will be possible in/near the convection,
before conditions quickly improve to VFR in wake of the
convection. Winds will also subside to some extent within and at
least a few hours in wake of the convection passage, with some
wrap-around cu cigs possibly affecting NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA by
mid to late afternoon, before eventually diminishing by mid to
late evening. A very tight pressure gradient will result in strong
Srly winds of 13-21kts with gusts of 22-32kts overnight, with
isolated higher gusts to 40-45kts, becoming WSW 10-20kts from W to
E during the afternoon in wake of the convection, with gusts to
30kts possible. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  45  70  43 / 100   0   0   0
MLU  78  47  70  43 / 100  10   0   0
DEQ  74  37  65  35 / 100  10   0   0
TXK  76  43  66  41 / 100  10   0   0
ELD  78  43  68  39 / 100  10   0   0
TYR  76  43  70  43 / 100   0   0   0
GGG  77  43  70  42 / 100   0   0   0
LFK  82  45  73  45 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151-153-166-167.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-108>111-124-
     125-136-137-149-150-152-165.

&&

15/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
454 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-311200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
454 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today, capable of
producing strong and damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Locally heavy downpours will also accompany this
activity today. In addition, strong winds outside of
thunderstorms will continue as well with gusts upwards of 50 mph
possible today. This activity will exit the region from west to
east by later this morning through late this afternoon as a cold
front moves across the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will be needed today. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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