NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 12:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 12:47 PM CST, 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
147 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Night/
There are two main weather concerns in the short term period--fire
weather concerns across parts of the Big Country and rain/storm
chances across parts of North and Central Texas.
Benign weather will continue today as we remain under the
influence ridging aloft, allowing for a nice, warm afternoon with
abundant sunshine and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Although
low level moisture will be transported northward via a 25-30 knot
LLJ tonight, cloud cover will be mostly confined across the Hill
Country and our far southern counties. Otherwise, a mild night is
expected with lows mostly in the 50s.
Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough across the Desert Southwest
will move toward the Plains and by early Thursday morning, the
attendant surface low will be located near the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles. Southerly winds will increase to around 15 to 20 mph
with higher gusts in response to a tightening pressure gradient as
the surface low tracks along the Red River.
A dryline will slide east across the the Big Country, which will
result in winds just along and behind the boundary to veer to the
southwest and west. The combination of breezy west and southwest
winds, warm temperatures, and relative humidity falling to 10-20%
will result in elevated to critical fire weather concerns along
and west of US-281 tomorrow afternoon.
The rest of the region will remain within the warm sector of the
system, and dew points will continue to rise into the 50s and even
low 60s across our far southeastern counties. Similar to the
previous system on Monday, most of the day will remain rain/storm
free through the early afternoon, but strong low level WAA may
result in scattered showers across our far eastern counties.
Forcing for ascent will increase as the upper trough moves
overhead late Thursday afternoon, and combined with MLCAPE upwards
of 1500 J/kg and lapse rates upwards of 7 C/km, scattered
discrete thunderstorms will likely develop along/east of the
dryline. The main threats with the initial activity will be hail
and damaging wind gusts. As the cold front advance east Thursday
evening and night, additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop and congeal into a line with a continued threat for hail
and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for severe weather
will be mainly along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20, which
is where the better ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms
will be located.
Behind the front, breezy westerly to northwesterly winds are
expected with low temperatures ranging from the low 40s across
the Big Country to near 50 degrees across Central Texas Thursday
night.
Garcia
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 746 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022/
/Late This Week Through Early Next Week/
As our late week system approaches from the west on Thursday, a
surface dryline will mix to between the US-281 and I-35 corridor.
Regardless of which side of this feature you are on, it will be a
very breezy and warm day with lower humidity across the far
western counties. An elevated, to possibly critical, fire weather
environment will set up behind the dryline with veering winds and
very low RH values, especially west of US-281. It will really
depend on wind speeds on how high the risk would be.
Otherwise further east, surface dew point values in the 50s will
be surging northward within the ongoing low level WAA regime with
highs mostly in the 70s, though a few readings could reach around
80 degrees right along the I-35 corridor. Isolated showers and
storms may develop late in the day just east of the dryline where
the warmest high temperatures are achieved, however, a lot will
depend on the timing of the better height falls and lift from our
impending system lifting out of the Southern Rockies. If the cap
aloft were to erode during peak heating across North Texas, then
you could expect storms to develop that may become become strong
to severe considering a corridor of SBCAPE up to 1500 J/KG, mid
level lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/Km, and impressive deep
layer shear on the order of 50 kts+. Again, Thursday afternoon
will be more "conditional" due to the uncertainty of timing the
erosion of the capping inversion aloft.
Thursday night is when all things will come together for better
rain and storm chances across especially areas east of US-281.
Impressive low level WAA and lift will erode what's left of our
capping inversion, while coinciding with a Pacific cold front
crashing through the area and providing additional low level
convergence and ascent. This system will be very progressive, but
strong to severe storms will be possible during especially evening
hours and north of I-20 where ascent and shear will be best
juxtaposed with the steep mid level lapse rates aloft. I do
expect large hail and damaging winds to continue to be the primary
hazards as strong veered 0-1 km flow and less than favorable
surface dew points likely keep the tornado potential low. A west
to east quick end to the convection will likely occur during the
overnight hours.
Similar to our last system, very brisk, dry, and cooler air
arrives in time for your Friday morning. It will remain quite
breezy Friday morning with mostly sunny conditions and diminishing
winds Friday afternoon and night with the arrival of a surface
high. After the cool and brisk start to the day, high temperatures
will still recover into the 60s and lower 70s with this being a
Pacific maritime airmass more than anything of arctic nature as
seen last month.
Clear skies and light winds will result in the coldest night and
morning Friday and Saturday, with lows tanking into the mid 30s to
lower 40s. However, the dry airmass will warm readily under sunny
skies as southerly winds return with the departure of the surface
high to our east. Highs will rebound into the 70s areawide to make
for a beautiful day for those getting their lawns and landscapes
ready for the new warm season, or just wanting to partake in
outdoor activities.
We rinse and repeat the entire process of gusty south winds, slow
increasing humidity, and warmer temperature on Sunday, as our next
slower and deeper system organizes over the Rockies and
Intermountain West. Sunday will be our warmest day of the extended
period as strong southwest flow in advance of our system maintains
a strong cap over the area. Highs will generally range between 75
and 80 degrees, with a few readings in the lower 80s across the
typical drier areas of our eastern Big Country counties. We'll
once again need to monitor for any elevated fire weather
conditions across the area, though the deep nature of this
approaching system for early next keeps the dryline well west of
our western zones. Otherwise, I held to the GEPS/EPS ensembles on
system timing, as well as the national blends and WPC on PoPs/QPF
for Monday into Tuesday. Plenty of uncertainty remains regarding
storm potential and environment. For now, expect a wet and stormy
start to your week on Monday and Monday evening with clouds and
periodic rainfall holding highs down into the lower to mid 70s.
05/Marty
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR and southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail this
afternoon and evening as the region remains under the influence
of riding aloft. Southerly winds will increase to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots in response to an approaching shortwave and
attendant surface low. This will result in increasing low level
moisture and cloud cover ahead of a dryline through the day, which
should set up just west of the I-35 corridor and terminals. There
is a low potential for MVFR ceilings at Waco late Thursday
morning, but confidence remains too low to warrant a mention in
the TAF at this time.
Late Thursday afternoon, isolated to scattered TS may develop
along the dryline. The confidence on exact timing and location of
any TS development after 21Z remains low at this time, but a VCTS
will likely be warranted in subsequent TAFs. Beyond the 30-hour
DFW TAF, the passage of a cold front will end precipitation
chances from west to east and bring a northerly wind shift.
Garcia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 53 80 46 68 / 0 0 30 40 0
Waco 80 52 80 47 70 / 0 0 20 20 0
Paris 75 50 75 46 61 / 0 0 40 90 5
Denton 80 50 79 42 66 / 0 0 30 40 0
McKinney 78 51 78 46 65 / 0 0 30 60 0
Dallas 80 53 78 47 67 / 0 0 30 50 0
Terrell 77 50 78 46 65 / 0 0 40 70 0
Corsicana 78 51 78 49 66 / 0 0 30 50 0
Temple 81 51 81 46 70 / 0 0 20 20 0
Mineral Wells 83 51 84 42 67 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&