Drought in Texas, June 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.AVIATION...
06z TAF Issuance...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible during the early morning hours today at all three sites.
Higher confidence exists for AMA to see a thunderstorm over
DHT/GUY. However, all three sites will have the chance for
vicinity showers developing around the 10z to 14z time frame. Due
to the uncertainty in where thunderstorms will development, any
amendments will be made once the precipitation develops and
certainty increases. Low level wind shear is possible through the
next few hours at AMA with the low level jet increasing. Low level
moisture will help to filter in low clouds through the morning
hours tomorrow, but the clouds will begin to lift across the
northern TAF sites late tomorrow night. Meanwhile, AMA will likely
remain in low clouds through the period.

Rutt

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow.
Bottom Line Up Top: Conditions will be favorable for severe
storms along and south of a quasi-stationary front this afternoon
into early this evening. The front is currently setup from near
Morton, TX to Clarendon, TX, to Seiling, OK. Very large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats, with a low tornado threat.
Flash flooding could also occur as some training of storms is
possible along the front. Another round of storm activity is
possible late in the evening and overnight and this would expand
to include most of the Panhandles with scattered coverage. These
storms would pose more of a large hail threat and could linger
into the morning hours Tuesday.

Details: The latest upper level analysis places a shortwave trough
and possible closed low over the central part of the NE/UT state
line. A belt of modest southwesterly winds extends from northern
New Mexico up into southeast Nebraska. At the surface, a cold
front has stalled near Morton to Clarendon to Seiling. Dew points
behind the cold front were in the 40s, but along and ahead of the
front dew points were in the 60 to 65 range.

A cumulus field was already noted within the moist warm sector
near the front. Lift should become sufficient for CI by around
21z, and this is when storms could erupt and quickly become
severe given large MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Effective shear
early in the convective cycle is modest with values around 35 to
45 knots. This is mostly due to the veering wind profiles. The
stronger southwesterlies aloft remain north of the area. A few
supercells may develop along the front late this afternoon, but
with the mean flow being largely parallel to the front, some
training and clustering of storms is possible (which could lead to
flash flooding given PWATs in the 90th percentile range). Any
supercell that does stay discrete could quickly become capable of
baseball size hail and damaging winds of 70 mph (locally higher).
Storms will likely produce some strong outflow winds given DCAPE
on the order of 1500 J/kg and LCL values around 1500 m.

Clustering storms will likely become outflow dominant, with
additional storms possibly forming on the outflow going into early
evening. The tornado threat does not look as concerning based on
the latest data which keeps low level SRH on the marginal side
and LCLs on the high side. However, going into the evening the low
level jet does increase as surface winds become more easterly
(these easterly winds may be largely due to outflow). The net
effect is to greatly increase hodograph lengths and curvature in
the lowest 3km. If any storms become rooted at the surface, a
tornado threat would exist after dark. However, this seems
unlikely unless the most aggressive model (RAP) verifies with very
large moisture/theta-E advection. Current thinking is that the
RAP is way to high on the near surface moisture due to convective
feedback. If dew points rise to near 70 in the Texas Panhandle
late this evening, then the RAP scenario may unfold. Otherwise,
storms that form overnight behind the front would be elevated and
pose more of a large hail threat. This large hail threat overnight
could be a bit more expansive than currently advertised if
moisture advection is more robust, especially considering the deep
layer shear increases in response to a secondary 500mb jet streak
in the area.

This overnight round of elevated convection could linger into the
morning hours Tuesday, mostly favoring the northern and eastern
half of the combined Panhandles where isentropic lift will be
maximized. Widespread stratus will form overnight along and north
of the front as moisture increases (also helped by rain cooled
air). This could lead to some periods of drizzle as well through
the morning hours. There is some indication that clouds will erode
near the frontal boundary which should remain draped across the
far southeast zones tomorrow afternoon. If this does happen,
destabilization would occur quickly and another round of storms,
possibly severe, could materialize (parameters are expected to be
similar to today's).

Ward

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday.
For Wednesday night, latest model trends continue support the
scenario that the heaviest and most extensive precipitation will
shift southward further downstate as cool surface high pressure
builds into the region. As a result, a decent north to south pop
gradient is expected, ranging from slight chance values across the
OK Panhandle to likely values in the far southeast TX Panhandle.
Mainly light amounts of QPF are foreseen Wednesday night.

For Thursday and Thursday night, some lingering showers are possible
Thursday morning across the southern Texas Panhandle, with slight
chance pops utilized. Thursday afternoon will likely be dry for
all of the OK and TX Panhandles. The next minor upper level shortwave
trof is then anticipated to track into eastern NM and eastern CO
Thursday afternoon, and should assist in the development of showers
and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of eastern NM and eastern
CO late in the afternoon, then move eastward into the forecast area
Thursday night. Chance pops offered by the NBM for this time frame
look plausible and were incorporated into the grids.

A near repeat performance is foreseen later Friday afternoon and
night as yet another minor upper level shortwave trof tracks through
the area from eastern CO and eastern NM. Showers and thunderstorms
should develop over eastern NM and eastern CO Friday afternoon, then
head eastward into the OK and TX Panhandles late Friday afternoon
and night. NBM pops capture this scenario and were utilized.

Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast to return to the
area Saturday through Monday as a flat ridge of high pressure
prevails. A weak cold front may impact the region Monday night
into Tuesday with pops across northern zones during this time
period based on the progged upper level pattern.

02

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

7/2

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1007 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1007 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Some storms may become severe with large hail
the main threat. In addition, the stronger storms will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall, which could result in localized
flooding or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible across the area Wednesday through
Friday. Some storms Wednesday afternoon and evening may become
severe across eastern and southern sections of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, the stronger storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, which could result in localized
flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
944 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

TXZ005-010330-
Lipscomb TX-
944 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lipscomb County through 1030 PM CDT...

At 944 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Glazier, or 11 miles south of Lipscomb, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higgins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 10031 3614 10036 3644 10001 3606 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 232DEG 25KT 3608 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Guerrero