Very hot temperatures on the afternoon of the fourth allowed for isolated thunderstorms to develop on the South Plains. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer enhanced the downburst potential of these storms.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Very hot temperatures on the afternoon of the fourth allowed for isolated thunderstorms to develop on the South Plains. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer enhanced the downburst potential of these storms. One of these storms became severe producing a severe wind gust near Morton (Cochran County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 5:17 PM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Isolated, small showers might affect one or more TAF site this evening with thunder not out of the question, but with activity of such limited scale will keep mention out of the TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022/ SHORT TERM... Early afternoon satellite imagery shows the forecast area situated on the western periphery of a large upper ridge centered over east Texas. A small mid-level cyclonic circulation is located over the eastern Panhandle and western Oklahoma, moving slowly northeast, and leaving most of our area in a region of very weak, anticyclonic flow. Deep-layer moisture remains quite rich across the area, especially in the northeast where pwats are running around 1.5 inches, with 1.0 to 1.4 elsewhere. A weak surface trough runs S-SW from the western Panhandle through eastern NM. At 2pm CDT, a deepening cumulus field was noted along the axis of this trough and also in the vicinity of that small circulation in our northeast counties. It appears that daytime heating and convergence will be sufficient to generate some shower and t-storm activity across eastern NM and the western South Plains through the remainder of the afternoon. Farther east, there is less confidence that we'll see any initial development across the TX South Plains into the northern Rolling Plains and far SE TX Panhandle, although we certainly can't rule out isolated activity. Steering flow is very weak, so storms will generally tend to drift to the east or northeast. There's only a slim chance that a storm will develop near or reach the Lubbock area, but if one does, it would likely be in the 5 pm to 10 pm time frame. Rainfall should once again be on the spotty side. And although lapse rates are weak and CAPE is limited, it looks like DCAPE values between 1k and 1.5k will support strong downdraft potential - and possibly an isolated, localized severe wind gust or two like we saw yesterday. CAMs suggest some activity could linger across the southern South Plains through about midnight, and could pose some heatburst potential as they dissipate. After the activity fades, the remainder of the night should be quiet, fireworks excepted. The large scale pattern won't change much on Tuesday. It does appear that the monsoonal moisture plume over NM today will shift east some, and likely extend along and slightly across the state line by afternoon, especially across the northwest South Plains into the western TX Panhandle as the plume leans eastward. This should support another round of isolated to scattered shower and t-storm development across the west Tuesday afternoon, while it heats up and remains dry in the Rolling Plains. LONG TERM... The primary theme of the extended forecast is the heat, but there will also be at least occasional chances for isolated (maybe even scattered) convection. The heat will be the result of a strong subtropical ridge that will linger over the region, in some form or fashion, for the foreseeable future. Through much of the remainder of this week, the upper ridge will be centered across the Deep South, placing West Texas on the western periphery. This will direct the plume of monsoonal moisture northward over New Mexico and Colorado, with its eastern expanse occasionally drifting across the TX/NM line, where the best chance of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening/overnight convection will exist the next few days. A this point, NWP are most bullish in shower/storm coverage across the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains Tuesday evening, then favoring locations a bit further west by Wednesday evening. Decent mid-level moisture will support localized downpours, while a hot and deeply mixed afternoon boundary layer will create good sub-cloud evaporation potential, meaning a risk for gusty/strong downbursts. The upper ridge will expand westward and amplify across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this weekend in advance of a storm system moving into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. This will tend to thin the monsoon feed, though what is left of it may bend more squarely over the South Plains region. Hence, we can't completely rule out isolated late-day convection, but chances of measurable precipitation are no higher than about 10% at any given spot (so the forecast is technically "dry"). As the storm system translates across the northern tier of the nation and south- central Canada, it will send a cold front southward through the Great Plains early next week. If the front can make it into the area, it could provide a little cooling and an uptick in storm chances as we move into next week, but at this point it is far from certain. Until then, warm nights and hot days will prevail. Highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be commonplace on the Caprock throughout the extended, while the Rolling Plains and southeast Panhandle will experience highs in the 100 to 107 degree range. At this point, it looks like temperatures may stay just below advisory levels, but it will be a close call. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 TXZ021>044-050845- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western South Plains this afternoon and evening. The potential for severe weather is low, but brief localized strong wind gusts and heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger activity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will continue mainly for the western South Plains and far southwestern Panhandle each afternoon and evening through Friday. Severe weather is not currently expected, but localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Morton measured a wind gust of 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1026890.