Lightning Strike in Alabama, July 4, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening with
the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. A storm or two
could also produce gusty winds this afternoon. For those heading
outside this evening, be sure to have a way to get weather updates
given the potential for thunderstorms and remember that if you hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

The upper level ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley will
continue to build into the CWA on Tuesday. Despite this, Tuesday
will still be another active day across the region convection wise
with the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the 50-60% range.
Locally heavy rain and a few gusty winds will be possible. Highs
will increase into the lower to mid 90s tomorrow with lows tonight
in the mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday...

Ensemble and cluster analysis shows upper level ridging through the
work week. This will lead to seasonable summer like weather with
highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. The
airmass will be moist and unstable, giving us daily opportunities
for showers and thunderstorms. The main threat will continue to be
heavy rain, with ensemble guidance generally keeping at 2.0 inches
of precipitable water over the tri-state region. Come the weekend,
cluster analysis hints at a trough digging over the east coast. NBM
guidance for the end of the period reflects this by dropping
temperatures late into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Scattered TSRA is expected this afternoon that will likely bring
brief periods of gusty winds and lower vsbys/cigs to the terminals.
Convection will diminish later this evening with additional storms
expected again on Tuesday. Outside of thunderstorms winds will be
light.

&&

.MARINE...

No major changes to the forecast as the chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue for the next several days. The greatest
chances will be in the morning hours before storms push inland during
the afternoon. Winds will be variable over the next few days with speeds
around 10 knots or less away from thunderstorms. Winds may increase
to around 15 knots this weekend. Seas are expected to be around 1 to
2 feet through the week, but may increase to 2 to 3 feet this
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will be low through the next few days with
high humidity and rain chances across the area. The only fire
weather concerns will be low dispersions on Tuesday and the
potential for patchy fog overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

We'll continue to observe our typical summer like weather with
showers and thunderstorms being possible each day. Widespread
flooding is not expected, but we may continue to see localized areas
urban and poor drainage of flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  93  75  95  76 /  20  60  10  40  10
Panama City   76  89  77  90  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
Dothan        74  90  74  92  75 /  30  60  20  40  10
Albany        75  94  76  95  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
Valdosta      74  93  74  95  75 /  30  50  10  40  10
Cross City    74  92  75  95  76 /  30  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  77  88  78  89  78 /  20  40  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM...KR
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...KR