Lack of significant rain, hot to very hot temperatures, and low relative humidity combined to allow Extreme (D3) Drought conditions return to the very northern portion of Jim Hogg County on July 19th. Severe (D2) Drought conditions expanded southward to include the northern quarter part of the county.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of significant rain, hot to very hot temperatures, and low relative humidity combined to allow Extreme (D3) Drought conditions return to the very northern portion of Jim Hogg County on July 19th. Severe (D2) Drought conditions expanded southward to include the northern quarter part of the county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with increasing southeasterly winds through Tuesday afternoon. Gusts may approach 30 kts at times across the RGV, especially at HRL and BRO. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Cumulus field to dissipate and clear skies (VFR conditions) prevail overnight and Tuesday morning. Fair weather cumulus to redevelop mid to late morning providing Scattered cloud cover and VFR. Southerly winds gusting between 20-25 knots early this evening tone down through the evening with a light to moderate wind overnight. Pressure gradient strengthens Tuesday with gusts 20 to 30 knots for the afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Forecast remains mostly unchanged through the Short Term period. High pressure dominates over Deep South Texas keeping us breezy and hot. Temperatures for today will climb into the 100s west of I-69C and reach the upper 90s east of I-69C. Winds will continue to gust to 25 to 30 mph especially for the coastal counties through the early evening hours. As for tonight, lows will be in the mid 70s with mostly clear skies and winds around 10 mph. Tomorrow's temperatures will be higher and its winds will be stronger. Dewpoints were running a bit high for tomorrow, but lowered them by 1 to 2 degrees due to the drier air still in place. Have Zapata and Falcon Dam areas reaching 106 to 108 degrees with the RGV reaching 98 to 102 degrees. Southeast winds will be breezy again with most of the RGV seeing 25 to 30 mph, but along the coast, gusts could reach up to 35 mph. Currently, advisories for heat and wind are not expected. However, Special Weather Statements may be needed if heat indices reach 107 to 110 degrees or if wind gusts reach 35 mph or higher. Tomorrow night will be a bit warmer in the upper 70s if scattered clouds are able to stick around. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): In the grand scheme of things, it's more of the same: Hot and generally rain-free, with breezy afternoons especially Wednesday and Thursday...though still some freshening winds each afternoon Friday through the weekend before perhaps a dip in daytime winds by next Monday. Even though these conditions are very close to average for the last ten days of July, the prolonged persistence of heat and lack of rainfall since May 1 (with the sole exception of May 23/24) has made summer so far seem oppressively long, even by Valley standards. As has been the case for the much of July, the steering pattern will continue to be dominated by broad and strong 500 mb ridging centered over the U.S. Four Corners region, with the ridge building east/oscillating through the southern Plains and southeast U.S.through the weekend and early next week. Underneath the ridge, broad easterly flow will continue aloft, with periodic weak east to west moving short waves into northern Mexico. Timing of these waves will still need to be sorted out, but for now the first favors Friday into Saturday and the second next Monday. As for sensible weather: A slight tightening of the low level pressure gradient that begins Tuesday will continue into Thursday, with stronger late morning through early evening winds progressing from east to west each day. All models continue to indicate a slight uptick in surface moisture, which nudges afternoon dewpoints up a bit on Wednesday before slightly lower values return Thursday and beyond. That said, raw model data has been running a bit "hot" with dewpoints, as recent values fell into the lower 60s along US 281/IH-69C and ranged through the 50s farther west away from water sources. With this in mind, and high evaporation rates and drying soils, nudged the values down a couple degrees for Wednesday which leaves values right at heat advisory trigger values (111) in many areas. Trends are leaning lower, so confidence is low on whether we'll have enough locations or duration for a full heat advisory on Wednesday. Thereafter, expect a continuation of the current temperature forecasts (day) which will be a touch above the nearing peak annual daily value...which range from 96-98 lower Valley to near 100 mid Valley and lower 100s upper Valley/ranchlands through the period). Morning lows will begin very sultry with aforementioned wind speeds up in the 4 to 8 mph range (vs. near calm) into Friday morning, but should drop a couple degrees with improved radiational cooling over the weekend. Local spots could touch the lower 70s which is not explicitly forecast just yet. Finally...will there be *any* rain? Through Friday, no. Saturday and Sunday will depend on lighter winds, sea breeze, and if enough low/mid level moisture can work with the weak energy from the backside of the short waves moving south of the ridge. Models, ensembles, and consensus QPF suggest the best chances will remain in northeast Mexico...and even these values are rather paltry. For now, have left mentionable rainfall out of the forecast, but if we do see anything it would favor locations along/near the IH-2 corridor in the lower/mid Valley. MARINE: Tonight through Tuesday Night...Favorable marine conditions will persist through the period. However, Small Craft may need to Exercise Caution on Tuesday afternoon due to winds gusting near 30 mph. Moderate winds will force moderate seas at 3 to 4 feet by Tuesday night. Wednesday through Saturday Night...Winds will be largely driven by diurnal trends over the Gulf (evening/overnight) and Laguna (daytime/early evening) based on marine layer timing (Gulf) and sea breeze enhancement (along coast/Laguna). That said, aforementioned increase in gradient will kick up winds and seas, gradually, Wednesday into Thursday before conditions settle down Friday and especially over the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution is likely for the Laguna each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday and the Gulf Wednesday night and Thursday night for mainly 15-20 knot winds. Seas will edge up into the moderate range Wednesday through Thursday night before gradually dropping back with the relaxing gradient Friday and especially through the weekend. Unfortunately, the seas will be dominated by wind waves vs. swell making for difficult boating and fishing conditions to close out the work week. CLIMATE: As mentioned a few days ago, local seasonal records (temperature) continue to remain in play as temperatures from April 1 through July 17 remain at or near the top all-time for the Valley anchor cities. Another element of long term issues are the latest reservoir pool levels, which dropped another tick at Falcon to 13.1 percent (Texas share) as daily evaporation rates across the area and the reservoir are reaching their yearly maximum. This forecast, along with the latest 8 to 14 day forecast and potentially the next 30 day forecast, suggest more of the same with limited rainfall in the tributary regions for both Amistad and Falcon. Should this verify, lake levels could rival the low points of the late 1990s. The situation is not much better across the border, where Mexican reservoirs are also showing low to very low pool levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 81 97 81 97 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 102 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 106 79 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 82 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 56-Hallman...Aviation
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 423 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-192130- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 423 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A moderate risk of rip currents will be possible through the period. There will be an enhanced wildfire growth and spread threat in a few spots for a few hours each afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed on Wednesday afternoon for Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, Willacy and Kenedy Counties when heat indices are expected to reach around 111 degrees. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-192130- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 423 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The very northern part of Jim Hogg County saw Extreme (D3) Drought return in mid-July. This includes the northern half of the town of Hebbronville. Severe (D2) Drought also expanded southward in mid-July.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1034222.