High Wind in Texas, December 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1032 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Strong arctic cold front remains on track to surge through the
region tonight. Early afternoon upper air analysis depicts a broad
upper trough axis shifting eastward over the central plains in
advance of a deepening upper cyclone descending southeastward out of
the Canadian Prairies. Skies have continued to clear across much of
the region this afternoon courtesy of dry southwesterly surface flow
associated with modest surface troughing over NE New Mexico. Fairly
mild temperatures this afternoon will actually result in the high
temperature for Dec. 22 occurring at midnight as most locations will
remain in the 30s during the early overnight hours. This will change
dramatically with the arrival of the front, with temperatures at
midnight tonight likely the warmest we will see until Saturday.

A strengthening mid/upper level jet steak approaching 200+ kt at
250mb on the back side of the upper low will drive the well-
advertised strong cold front southward overnight as a ~1060mb
surface high builds over SE Montana, with the corresponding dry
arctic airmass expected to make quick southward progress during the
overnight period. The front was analyzed approaching the WY/CO
border at 19z, and current expectation is for the front and
associated northerly wind shift to pass through the entire forecast
area by sunrise on Thursday. Very strong cold advection and a long
upstream fetch of bitterly cold air will result in a sharp drop in
temperature following frontal passage, with locations across the
southern Panhandle seeing temperatures in the single digits by
sunrise on Thursday with teens elsewhere. A period of notably strong
winds also will align with low temperatures during the morning
hours, resulting in very dangerous wind chill values as low as -25F
on Thursday morning. Winds will be strongest across the SE Panhandle
and the Rolling Plains where surface pressure rises approaching
12mb/3-hr are expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the SE
Panhandle and the eastern Rolling Plains from 3 AM until noon, where
sustained winds in excess of 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph are
anticipated following frontal passage. Winds will be weaker with
westward extent, however most locations will still see sustained
winds between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph possible.

The wind chill headlines remain unchanged, with Wind Chill Warnings
in effect across the far southern Panhandle, much of the South
Plains, and the western Rolling Plains where extremely dangerous
wind chills as low as -25F are expected. A Wind Chill Advisory is in
effect for the southern South Plains and eastern Rolling Plains,
where still-dangerous wind chills ranging from -10F to -15F are
expected.

Even with quite a bit of sunshine across most of the area on
Thursday, temperatures will only rise a few degrees during the
daytime hours with strong north winds continuing throughout the day.
It is important to note that wind chills will remain near or well
below zero throughout the entire day on Thursday. Those needing to
be outside on Thursday are therefore urged to use extreme caution,
with frostbite and hypothermia possible within very short periods of
time without proper precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Bitterly cold north winds continue Thursday evening within a broad
surface ridge that should pinch off a secondary high over the South
Plains by Friday morning coincident with lighter winds. Until then,
wind chills will dip back into warning territory (-15F or colder)
across much of the CWA Thursday evening with advisory levels (-5F to
-14F) over the far south and southeast. Feel the NBM90 winds are
too bullish overnight given the deepening surface ridge, so a
lighter blend of the CONSSHORT and NBM was applied. Regarding low
temps Thursday night, values still look to be spared from
cratering even lower thanks to a dense plume of mid and high
clouds spilling southeast after midnight. These clouds are tied to
a stream of Pacific moisture well in advance of a shortwave
trough tracking from the Desert SW to the lower Rio Grande by
Friday night. Main upshot is that highs on Friday will sadly
remain well below freezing under thick clouds.

One recent development is that models are now more bullish with
top-down saturation on Friday morning thanks to a ribbon of stronger
PVA around H5. Model soundings show this saturation descending to
nearly 6000 feet AGL over portions of our area which supports their
theme of very light snow, however feel their QPF is still overdone
for the pattern given sizable sub-cloud moisture woes. At best, a
few locales could see flurries at times Friday morning, but feel
virga is the most likely scenario for now. Exodus of these clouds
Friday night could open the door to a much colder setup than
currently forecast as our dewpoints remain exceptionally low with
light S-SW winds behind the surface ridge. Blended in some of
the much colder MOS with the NBM to account for this potential.

As the frigid high departs into N TX on Christmas Eve, model
streamlines show our SW winds will still be recycling a hefty amount
of cold trajectories emanating from the ridge, so some spots may
only briefly climb above freezing. Steadier westerly winds emerge
overnight into Christmas Day as surface troughing focuses to our
west, so temps improve nicely with all areas rebounding well into
the 40s/lower 50s for highs under continued dry NNW flow. A
shortwave within this flow will drag a surface trough/northerly wind
shift through the region Sunday night and Monday, before winds veer
southwest through Tuesday with even milder temps provided ridging
from the Desert SW nudges far enough into W TX. The ECMWF disagrees
with this setup and instead drags another Arctic front through the
Great Plains with much of our CWA in its sights. Ran with the NBM
for now as ensemble spread is too high to favor any one solution
this many days out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

A strong cold front ushering in a frigid air mass and gusty north
winds is on track to pass the terminals around 08-09Z tonight. A
period of MVFR ceilings is still expected behind the front at KCDS
but remains less likely at KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning from 6 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday for
TXZ021>031-033>037.

Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Thursday for TXZ025-026-031-
032-037-038-043-044.

Wind Chill Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday for
TXZ032-038>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
212 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

TXZ021>044-222015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
212 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A strong Arctic cold front will pass through the region late tonight.
Strong northerly winds immediately following the front may result in
localized visibility reductions due to blowing dust. Wind gusts to 50
mph are possible with the frontal passage during the pre-dawn hours,
especially across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the
Rolling Plains. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Rolling Plains
and far southeast Texas Panhandle beginning at 3 AM tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from 6 AM Thursday until noon
Friday for the northern and central South Plains, far southern Texas
Panhandle, and the western Rolling Plains. A Wind Chill Advisory is
in effect from 6 AM Thursday until noon Friday for the remainder of
the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Extremely cold wind chills with
values as low as 25 degrees below zero are likely at times. A Wind
Advisory continues until noon Thursday for the far southeast Texas
Panhandle until noon Thursday.

Beyond Saturday, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.