A broad, weak upper low to our west led to the development of scattered showers and storms across much of the region on August 30. Abundant gulf moisture allowed for some storms to produce heavy rain and generate localized flash flooding in Bell County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A broad, weak upper low to our west led to the development of scattered showers and storms across much of the region on August 30. Abundant gulf moisture allowed for some storms to produce heavy rain and generate localized flash flooding in Bell County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 30, 12:38 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ Showers and occasional thunderstorms continue early this afternoon, with the best coverage currently across Central Texas. Remnant outflow boundaries across North Texas from this morning's activity are serving as a focus for renewed development of showers and storms. This trend is expected to continue through this afternoon and evening, with coverage and intensity likely peaking mid to late afternoon, coincident with peak daytime heating. While severe weather is not expected, any of the stronger storms may produce frequent lightning. Additionally, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will remain possible given the abundant moisture and slow movement of showers and storms. Dense cloud cover will keep temperatures largely below 90 degrees, except for western North Texas, where cloud cover will be slightly harder to come by this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may persist through the overnight hours, but coverage should be significantly less than this afternoon. Additional development will be possible on Wednesday, but the best chances will shift further west with the axis of highest moisture (PWs in excess of 2"). Showers and storms won't be quite as numerous as they are today, but locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flooding will continue to be a possibility. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 354 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022/ /Wednesday through Monday/ Upper level high pressure will remain centered near the Great Basin from mid week through the weekend, keeping the Lone Star State in regime of either neutral or broad large scale ascent. Closer to the surface, a diffuse frontal boundary will work its way through the forecast area Wednesday and gradually lose its identity as it meanders around North and Central Texas through the weekend. The front along with numerous outflows boundary will be a focus for convection but forecasting the exact locations of these ill-defined sources for moisture convergence and lift will be next to impossible. What we do know is that ample moisture will reside over the entire forecast area with precipitable water values hovering around 2 inches. Therefore, we will keep chance to likely PoPs across the entire forecast area Wednesday and Thursday with the best chances during the afternoon and evening hours. The front will continue to lose its identity this weekend into early next week, decreasing the magnitude of mesoscale forcing associated with it. Therefore, rain chances will decrease Friday through Monday but we will still maintain chance PoPs mainly south of the I-20 corridor where moisture will be most abundant. Again, the favored time for storms will be during the heat of the day. The unsettled and moist weather pattern will keep temperatures generally below seasonal normals through early next week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s, except across the western zones where upper 60s are likely Friday through Monday. Looking ahead, the upper ridge is progged to build back over the Plains around the middle of next week which will likely result in slightly warmer and drier weather as we head towards the second weekend in September. 79 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue across the area through this evening, though uncertainty is still high in exactly how this activity will evolve over the next few hours. Coverage should wane overnight, but a few showers and storms may stick around through the overnight hours. This potential is low, so it has been excluded from the TAF for now. MVFR ceilings are finally lifting across the region, but will continue to be intermittent for the next few hours. VFR conditions are expected tonight, but we'll likely see another round of MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning across D10. Otherwise, winds will generally be out of the south/southeast, but will have some variability due to the presence of showers and storms. Brief periods of NE winds will be possible with any outflow that develops (as we're seeing now across the Metroplex), but wind speeds should generally remain near 6-8 knots or less. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 75 90 76 88 / 60 30 50 10 20 Waco 89 75 92 74 90 / 70 40 60 20 30 Paris 88 73 91 71 88 / 40 20 20 5 10 Denton 89 73 90 73 88 / 60 30 40 10 20 McKinney 88 72 90 72 88 / 50 20 40 5 20 Dallas 89 75 90 76 88 / 60 30 50 10 20 Terrell 88 73 91 74 89 / 60 30 40 10 20 Corsicana 85 74 91 74 88 / 70 40 50 10 20 Temple 88 72 91 71 90 / 80 40 60 30 40 Mineral Wells 89 74 90 72 87 / 60 50 60 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered storms will remain possible each day through early next week for portions of North and Central Texas. Severe storms are not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but reports of new flooding are appreciated.
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:46 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Belton Alert Gauges reported a rise of 7 feet on Nolan Creek at Roy Reynolds Drive, about a mile and a half northeast of Killeen Skylark Airport.
Belton Alert Gauges reported a rise of 8.5 feet on South Nolan Creek at Twin Creek Road just north of Skylark Airport.
Belton Alert Gauges reported a rise of 9 feet on South Nolan Creek at Paddy Hamilton Road, about 4 miles east of Nolanville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1053553, 1053554, 1053555.