Prolonged drought conditions coupled with strong winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels contributed to critical fire weather conditions across the Texas Panhandle.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
Prolonged drought conditions coupled with strong winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels contributed to critical fire weather conditions across the Texas Panhandle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 21, 5:33 PM CST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Although at
times, given certain conditions may reduce vsbys below VFR at
times, whether it would be BLDU and/or TSRA over TAF sites with
erratic winds. Overall, sustained winds will increase past 16-17Z
Friday through the end of the TAF period. Leading up to sunrise
tomorrow morning, winds will be out of the south at 15-25 kts with
higher gusts at times. Past 16-17Z, winds will be out of the
south sustained around 25-35 kts with gusts over 50 kts at times
through the end of the TAF period. PROB30 group also added for
KAMA for the potential for +TSRA starting around 21Z through the
remainder of the TAF period. Large hail and erratic winds will be
main threat.
Meccariello
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022/
SHORT TERM...
19z WV satellite shows a vigorous upper trough off the Pacific
Northwest coast and a broad region of southwesterly flow aloft over
the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure center
is present in the Se TX Panhandle with a dryline extended southward
from this feature, separating 50s and 60s dewpoints across N TX and
W OK from dewpoints in the teens in E NM and W TX, with most of the
southern TX Panhandle in the dry sector.
Today, lee pressure falls will continue as the Pacific NW upper
trough advances. As increasing southwesterly winds aloft overspread
NM, concomitant upsurge in surface winds will continue to mix the
aforementioned dryline eastward, with guidance setting this feature
up around our eastern border with OK this afternoon, with the
extreme eastern Panhandles potentially in the moist sector. The
moist sector looks to feature 0-6km bulk shear around 25 knots or
greater and, with MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, this will
support the potential for organized convection, although short
hodographs above 3km suggest storms may struggle initially. As for
potential threats, cannot totally rule out a tornado risk, although
surface to 500m helicity of 60 m2/s2 or less and potentially high
LCLs reduce enthusiasm. Primary risks look to be damaging winds
given those high LCLs and, with steep mid level lapse rates present,
large hail. All that said, expect the bulk of this risk to remain
east of our forecast area when convective initiation is potential
aided by an upper disturbance arrives around 7pm, with a potential
exception during the nighttime hours.
Tonight, as SW-NE oriented upper jet overspreads the Rockies, lee
cyclogenesis will occur in E CO. Loss of daytime heating and the
deepening of this low will pull the dryline back northwestward, with
this feature reaching our western border around daybreak. In the
early evening hours, as the dryline first retreats back into our
CWA, secondary disturbance may help generate a thunderstorm in our
far east. Risks would be the same as delineated above. That said,
probability of this is quite low as capping from the EML remains
stout given continued southwesterly flow aloft.
Friday brings multiple hazards including fire danger, severe
thunderstorms, and strong winds both associated and not associated
with thunderstorms. As the upper trough continues to advance over
the Rockies, surface pressure gradient and height gradient aloft
will increase with winds through the column ramping up as a
consequence. This will result in windy conditions across the
forecast area which will serve to hold the dryline in our west most
of the day. Areas east of the dryline will see a risk for severe
thunderstorms while areas west will see critical fire danger.
Additionally, progged soundings suggest potential for 60 to 70 mph
wind gusts outside of thunderstorms, so damaging winds will be
possible across the area regardless of thunderstorm development.
These seem likely in the northern Panhandles, so have upgraded to a
High Wind Warning where confidence was highest and gone with a
Wind Advisory elsewhere, with users advised that the High Wind
Warning may be expanded in the future.
Drilling down on the potential for thunderstorms, development looks
to focus on two rounds of potential initiation: 1) along and east of
the dryline during peak heating in the late afternoon and early
evening and 2) during the evening into nighttime hours as a Pacific
cold front crashes eastward and overtakes the dryline. For potential
period number 1, both the exact location of the dryline and whether
or not the cap breaks are in question. Should the cap break, all
hazards would be possible given sfc-6km bulk shear of around 45
knots, MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg, looping hodographs, and progged
near-surface helicity values of 50-150 m2/s2. With sfc-6km bulk
shear vectors progged to be oriented off the dryline, favored storm
mode would be supercells. For potential period 2, damaging winds
will be the main risk as gusts from storm motions alone could
approach 50 knots as wind speeds aloft continue to increase ahead of
the main upper trough. Hail risk looks to drop considerably as mid
level lapse rates trend downward. Surface to 3km bulk shear values
would support a risk for QLCS tornadoes favoring the more north-
facing side of any bowing segments should upscale growth into
a squall line occur.
Ferguson
FIRE WEATHER...Friday...
Critical fire weather conditions will likely develop west of a
dryline during the late morning into the evening hours. Given
sharp contrast between RH values in the lower teens west of the
dryline and values 30 percent or greater east, the location of
this will be paramount. In any case, no matter exact dryline
position, overall wind speeds will increase greatly with 20 foot
values out of the south at 30 to 40 mph. With fuels cured, all
areas west of the dryline in the afternoon are likely to achieve
critical conditions with RFTI values of 4 to 6. Finally,
thunderstorms may develop along and east of the dryline. Should
any develop on the dryline, they may generate lightning strikes
outside of their rain cores, leading to fire starts.
Ferguson
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
Front Saturday night with a reinforcing surge Monday. Elevated to
critical fire weather possible next week.
By Saturday morning, most of the precip should be exiting our area
to the east with perhaps a few lingering showers in the far
southeast corner of the TX Panhandle. As the mid level low
responsible for the storms lifts northeast through the northern
Plains, we retain southwest flow aloft and westerly flow at the
surface in the post frontal regime. This will lead to some CAA and
lowering of daytime high temps from the upper 80s on Friday to the
70s for most on Saturday. By Saturday night, the surface low
shifts far enough south to bring a cold front into the Panhandles.
Forecast models show it to be a quick moving front that should be
through the Panhandles by midnight Sunday morning. This will lead
to a cooler air mass in place and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
for the end of the weekend. A mid level shortwave looks to pass
through the area Sunday evening and kick off storms from the
mountains during the afternoon. These may get close enough to clip
the far northeast OK Panhandle, but confidence of this is very
low.
By Monday, a mid level trough pushes through the area and will
turn wind northwesterly aloft. A reinforcing surge of cold air
will accompany this trough and turn surface winds from easterly
back to northerly for the day. Monday will see the coolest temps
of the week with highs in the 60s. With the cooler temps,
overnight lows from the end of the weekend through the early parts
of next week may have some areas that reach into the lower to mid
30s. All areas look to remain above freezing, and as long as winds
remain around 10 mph, frost issues will be limited as well. Moving
towards Tuesday and Wednesday, we see weak ridging in the west,
slowly moving towards the Panhandles and Plains. This will help
develop lee side troughing. Surface flow will also turn back to
southerly on Tuesday allowing for WAA. High temps will respond by
increasing into the 70s and 80s. With drier air returning, we
could see a return of fire weather concerns for mid week depending
on if any grasses could receive moisture from Friday and green up
a bit.
Beat
FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Wednesday...
Saturday will be questionable for seeing critical fire weather.
The question will be where did rain fall and how much was it.
Depending on how these are answered, will determine how much area
will see elevated to critical fire weather conditions.
Sunday and Monday won't be likely to see fire weather concerns as winds
die down in the afternoon below 15 mph when RH drops.
Tuesday and Wednesday could see the return of elevated to critical
fire weather conditions, with Tuesday focusing on the northwest
for critical and elevated elsewhere. Wednesday doesn't have a
specific area lining up for defining a critical area just yet.
For Saturday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, conditions will be generally
similar with RH in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values in the
1 to 2 range, and winds 15 to 25 mph. ERC values will be
contingent on the rainfall Friday, so while they are currently
forecast for above the 90th percentile, it could come down a bit.
Beat
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Warning from noon Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the
following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Lipscomb...
Ochiltree...Sherman.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...
Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...
Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Sherman.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
Oldham.
Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the
following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf
Smith...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Moore...
Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
Wheeler.
OK...High Wind Warning from noon Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the
following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Cimarron.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for the following zones: Cimarron.
&&
29/89Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-220900- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and much of the Texas Panhandle due strong winds and low RH. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this area from 1 PM this afternoon until 9 PM CDT this evening. Elsewhere across the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the eastern Texas Panhandle, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop from 1 PM to 9 PM today. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this evening across the far eastern sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A storm or two may become strong to severe, with hail to around the size of quarters and wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph the primary hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late Friday afternoon and night across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Some storms may become severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Sustained south winds to around 40 mph with gusts of 60 to 65 mph will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A High Wind Warning is in effect in the northern Panhandles and a Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern TX Panhandle. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the far western sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Friday afternoon and early evening. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for this area. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Saturday, Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for elevated or critical fire weather conditions today through Saturday as well as Tuesday and Wednesday.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Brown Fire cause was undetermined. Times were estimated. The fire burned an estimated 635 acres.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1024831.