Wildfire in Texas, April 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
242 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.SHORT TERM...
A cooler, very dry airmass has settled in behind the front that
passed south of our area overnight. A progressive upper level
shortwave axis that traversed our CWA west to east late this morning
into the early afternoon can be seen exiting the Rolling Plains to
the east at this hour (2pm CDT). We've seen periods of gusty winds
especially in the wake of the upper trough axis with Reese Center
mesonet site gusting to 56mph at 1:15pm CDT. Dewpoints are in the
single +/- on the Caprock with numerous locations along the NM/TX
state line currently at -6F. There won't be much in the way of RH
recovery overnight, as the dry airmass persists over the region
under flattening zonal flow aloft tomorrow. With the dry airmass
and easing winds overnight, we'll see temps pleasantly cool, into
the 30s and low 40s by sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow will be warmer,
with only slightly higher dewpoints, thus RH values will still be
very low across our FA. Southwest surface winds will be breezy at
times, but holding off on issuing a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag
Warning for the time being.

.LONG TERM...
Low amplitude westerly flow Friday & Saturday will back slightly
in advance of an impulse skirting through late in the weekend. A
weak cold front oozing south from the Texas Panhandle appears
likely to surge southward early Saturday keeping most of the area
in cooler northeast to southeast low level flow. Low level
southwest flow should recover early Sunday and a warmer day is
expected, but some solutions were also indicating another minor
cool surge trying to sag southward early Sunday though most delay
until Sunday night and Monday. Anyway, we have some timing
differences among surface solutions needing resolution so we have
uncertainties with the day-to-day forecast highs by late in the
weekend.

Another low amplitude impulse will pass late Tuesday and this one
gets our interest since GFS and ECMWF are indicating shallow
moisture return and isentropic upglide and maybe a few light
showers early Tuesday. We are not quite ready to introduce showers
in the forecast given this has not been a consistent enough
feature. Regardless, drier flow should take back over by Tuesday
afternoon along with warmer and breezier. Wednesday also unclear
on the forecast details, but blends are favoring warm and dry.
Another model moisture increase looms late next week, that we also
are dubious on but that is still days 8 and 9 so we have time to
slice and dice before making actual decisions. Overall forecast
confidence in day-to-day details is lower than normal. RMcQueen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning for our entire area remains in place until 9 PM CDT
tonight. The magnitude of the sustained northwest surface winds have
fortunately underperformed somewhat for today but we've still seen
gusts into the 40/50 MPH range late this morning and afternoon.
Southwest surface winds are expected to be breezy at times tomorrow
with warmer temperatures, along with the very dry airmass remaining
in place. Have decided to hold off on issuing any fire weather
products for tomorrow attm, given the marginal wind speeds.

Friday is next day with wind speeds supportive of low critical
fire weather conditions along with warmer and dry weather.
Uncertainties in day-to-day details lowers certainties beyond. But
pattern remains supportive of at least a few more periods of
elevated to critical fire weather late weekend into the middle of
next week. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

55/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

TXZ021>044-141615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across the Caprock
and Rolling Plains for the remainder of this afternoon and evening,
and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect across the entire area
until 9 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will persist Thursday through
early next week, with elevated to critical fire conditions possible
across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains during this time.