Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, April 12 to 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings across area terminals will gradually improve to VFR
by 12/18Z. Showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage from
the southwest affecting LFK as early as 12/15Z and exiting
MLU/ELD as late as 13/04Z. However, could see lingering showers
across the region through the end of the forecast period at
13/12Z. South winds 10 to 15 kts today to increase to near 18
knots through the afternoon and into the evening hours and
overnight hours. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings to spread northward
across area terminals by 13/04Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday/

South winds to prevail across the region today, gradually
increasing to near 20 mph as the pressure gradient increases ahead
of an approaching low across Oklahoma into Kansas. At this time,
looks like winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, at
least through the afternoon. Based on current model trends,
however, winds could exceed advisory criteria early this evening.
Will hold off on issuing an advisory at this time due to some
degree of uncertainty in the models, especially during a period
when widespread convection is forecast which could contribute to
convective contamination in the hi-res wind forecasts this far out.

The threat for severe weather this afternoon into this evening and
again on Wednesday will be the main forecast headlines for the
short term period. A low-amplitude shortwave disturbance will move
northeast across east Texas into the heart of the ArkLaTex this
afternoon and evening. With southwest flow aloft prevailing and
dewpoint values in the mid 60s, sufficient instability will exist
to support scattered convection early in the day with the onset of
daytime heating. Uncertainty remains on whether a dry line across
central Texas will shift far enough eastward into the ArkLaTex
late in the afternoon to generate and maintain organized severe
weather into the evening hours. However, regardless of whether the
dryline becomes a factor, sufficient instability and shear will
support a damaging wind, hail, and tornado threat across the
ArkLaTex during the time of peak heating.

Strongest convection to dissipate and exit the region by midnight
with fairly benign conditions expected through the overnight
hours. Could see some lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms
during the overnight hours simply aided by a strong low-level jet.
However, conditions to deteriorate during the day on Wednesday as
a frontal boundary moves across the region bringing another
chance for severe weather to the ArkLaTex. The primary ingredients
supporting the severe weather threat will be lift associated with
the front in a region characterized by mid 60 dewpoints and
decreasing mid-level lapse rates through the afternoon. Bowing
features along the frontal boundary as well as pre-frontal
supercells will pose an all mode severe weather threat across the
region, consisting of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
/05/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Monday Night/

By Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, the final potent
upper level short wave associated with the upper trough axis
migrating from west to east across the middle of the CONUS will kick
off scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. SPC
continues to highlight an Enhanced Risk during this period as
moderate instability and shear will be in place. This combination
should be enough ingredients for the production of severe
thunderstorms, with most of the convection confined to our eastern
most zones by Wednesday evening.  All modes of severe weather (large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) will still be in play at this
time. Good news is that all storms should be out of the region
before midnight.

A cold front will move across the region on the heels of the exiting
convection, bringing cooler and drier air into the region. Expect
mostly sunny skies on Thursday along with temperatures returning
closer to climatic normals, as morning lows will range from the mid
40s to lower 50s, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. However, these
conditions will be short-lived, as models suggest an unsettled zonal
flow aloft will set up and allow the aforementioned cold front to
return back from the south as a warm front on Friday. This will
reintroduce shower and thunderstorm chances to portions of the
region on Friday and through the upcoming weekend, along with a
return of a warmer and more humid airmass. Severe weather remains a
low threat during this period, but this will be something to monitor
over the next few days, as plenty of instability will be in place.

Longer range model ensembles have decent consensus on a rather
significant mid April cold front moving into the region by Monday,
bringing more storms into the region and possibly some below normal
temperatures for next week. Once again, severe weather cannot be
completely ruled out with this front. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  67  81  50 /  50  60  90  10
MLU  82  67  81  50 /  70  80  90  40
DEQ  80  63  81  42 /  60  70  80   0
TXK  81  67  81  47 /  50  60  90   0
ELD  82  64  79  45 /  60  80  90  20
TYR  82  67  85  49 /  50  40  60   0
GGG  82  67  83  47 /  40  50  80   0
LFK  82  68  83  52 /  40  40  80  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
527 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
527 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the area by
this afternoon into this evening. Some storms may be severe, with
all modes of severe weather possible. Heavy rainfall will be possible
with some storms, which could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Chances for thunderstorms will remain across the area on
Wednesday ahead of cold front. Some of these storms may be
severe, with all modes of severe weather possible. Heavy rainfall
will also remain a possibility, which could lead to localized
flooding. Dry weather is expected on Thursday, but thunderstorm
chances will return by Friday and through the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Activation of emergency
management personnel, amateur radio operators, and storm spotters
will be needed through Wednesday.

20