Damaging Winds in South Dakota, June 29, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
103 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

WV imagery this aftn shows a pocket of subsidence across cntrl ND/SD
behind this morning's convection rapidly shifting ewd. In its wake,
deeper moisture is streaming into the cntrl/nrn Plains ahead of
elongated nwrn CONUS/wrn CN troughing, supporting the development of
isolated to scattered convection across much of WY, UT, and nrn CO.
At the sfc, a trof is in place across wrn SD, with an evident
moisture/mixing boundary extending north and east of the Black
Hills. Behind this boundary, RH has dropped into the teens thanks to
steady downslope winds, while dew points remain in the 50s/60s
elsewhere. Breezy to windy conditions continue ahead of the
boundary/trof across s cntrl SD, where some gusts have approached 50
mph today.

As deeper moisture and height falls overspread the region this aftn
into the evening, should see increased coverage of convection across
nern WY/wrn SD. Although BL moisture is obviously limited,
steepening lapse rates should support increasing CAPE thru early-mid
aftn. Inverted-V profiles with cloud bases over 10 kft will support
downburst potential with any stronger updraft/downdraft features.
Unidirectional deep shear is rather strong, but given the likelihood
of robust outflow with the associated thermodynamic profiles (e.g.,
analyzed DCAPE 1.5-2 kJ/kg), think that the potential for any
supercellular elements is limited. Most widespread activity will
likely occur with the first wave of convection, from around now thru
approximately 7 PM MDT. Additional straggler storms will then likely
continue until around sunset, with limited coverage/intensity of
convection following the loss of daytime heating.

As the mid-to-upper trof shifts ewd tonight into early tomorrow,
drier midlevel air will sink swd into the nrn Plains. However, its
swd progression will be shunted somewhat by a building ridge over
the Rockies and associated low-to-midlevel theta-E advection.
Isentropic ascent atop a NW/SE-oriented baroclinic zone may support
additional showers/convection tomorrow aftn into eve across our far
southwest, potentially expanding newd during the overnight.
Largely zonal flow will then emerge late this week into the
weekend, with PWATs gradually increasing to above normal by
Sat/Sun. Given this large-scale pattern, unsettled weather will
continue, though the potential for widespread appreciable precip
looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1127 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Windy
conditions will be found across southern South Dakota, with
southerly wind gusts to 35 knots through early evening.

Additionally, high-based -TSRA will develop over northeastern WY
midday, spreading east through western SD into the early evening
hours. Strong erratic wind gusts are possible with any storm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Hot temperatures (90s to low 100s), low relative humidity values
(10 to 20 percent), and strong west to southwest winds (sustained
15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph) will continue to produce
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of
western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming today. Conditions
conducive to large fire growth are most likely over southwestern
and south central South Dakota. Earlier today, the Red Flag
Warning was expanded to include much of the southern Black Hills
and the Custer County plains, where gusty westerly winds have
produced very low relative humidities.

Scattered thunderstorms bringing strong and erratic wind gusts are
also expected this afternoon and evening. Lightning with little to
no accompanying rainfall may occur in some areas.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335.

WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sherburn
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...Sherburn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

SDZ027-029>031-041>044-046-047-049-074-301300-
Southern Foot Hills-Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-
Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-Hermosa Foot Hills-
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 /337 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...and the Black Hills of
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very low humidity, hot temperatures, and breezy to windy
conditions will result in elevated to critical fire weather
conditions today from far southwestern South Dakota, through south
central South Dakota.

Additionally, there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, meaning that isolated
severe storms are possible. The primary hazard will be damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028-032-072-073-WYZ054>058-071-301300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Central Black Hills-Haakon-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that isolated severe storms are possible. The
primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
259 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

WYZ054-056-292145-
Northern Campbell WY-Western Crook WY-
259 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Campbell and west central Crook Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Rozet, or 11 miles northeast of Gillette, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Oshoto and Carlile.

This includes Interstate 90 in Wyoming between Mile Markers 130 and
134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
northeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 10543 4437 10547 4472 10484 4445 10470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 244DEG 34KT 4437 10530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sherburn