Damaging Wind in South Dakota, August 24, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1041 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Upper air analysis shows an upper low situated over southeastern
SK this afternoon, with a wave stretching down through the western
Dakotas. At the surface, low pressure sits on the MT/ND border,
with a W/E oriented boundary. Radar shows scattered showers
throughout the forecast area. Models show most areas with ML Cape
values 100-500 J/Kg, however areas with less cloud cover could
increase into the 500-1000 J/Kg this afternoon. A few lightning
strikes starting to pop up, otherwise mostly showery precipitation
thus far. Shear is pretty weak today, at only 10-20kts, so may see
some increased lightning activity otherwise chance for severe is
low. With increased upper level forcing today, expect showers to
persist into the evening and overnight. Tempered todays highs
somewhat, given the cloud cover over the region, but should still
reach into the mid 80s and low 90s.

Active pattern persists at least through the end of the work week,
with a series of waves bringing daily chances for precipitation.
Short term models keep chance of severe low. Temperatures keep to
about average or just above normal through the week. By the latter
half of the weekend, upper flow becomes more zonal, and
eventually upper ridging builds over the western CONUS early next
week, bringing a more dry pattern and likely keep temperatures
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1040 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the overnight hours, which could produce localized MVFR
to IFR conditions and erratic wind gusts. Storm chances will taper
off from west to east after 06-08z. Additional isolated
thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday afternoon with MVFR/IFR
conditions and erratic outflow winds. Outside of any
thunderstorms, VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Eagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
418 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-241300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
418 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 /518 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight. Severe storms are not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
week. While severe storms are not expected, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
310 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

SDZ049-240900-
Tripp SD-
310 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Tripp
County through 400 AM CDT...

At 310 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Ideal, or 18 miles south of Presho, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4358 10005 4370 10001 4369 9993 4370 9990
      4367 9987 4370 9986 4369 9984 4371 9975
      4375 9975 4373 9974 4376 9969 4373 9967
      4377 9966 4374 9962 4350 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 282DEG 17KT 4365 9993

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sherburn