A series of long-period northerly swells resulted in large breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents along the Atlantic coastline of Puerto Rico between December 20-23.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A series of long-period northerly swells resulted in large breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents along the Atlantic coastline of Puerto Rico between December 20-23.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 20, 11:40 AM AST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1140 AM AST Tue Dec 20 2022
.UPDATE...
A mixture of sunshine and clouds with passing showers continued to
affect the area this morning, as fragments of moisture from an old
frontal boundary crossed the region, steered by the prevailing easterly
trade winds. Some showers produced periods of moderate to locally heavy
rains with estimated rainfall accumulations between 0.25 to 0.50 inches
with the heaviest rains. A gradual clearing and more sunshine is expected
later in the morning and early afternoon, however afternoon showers
are still expected over parts of the interior and west sections of
PR, and mainly down wind of the USVI over the coastal waters. Recent
TJSJ upper air sounding was relatively stable and dry except for shallow
moisture trapped below 850 millibars. Otherwise no change to the inherited
short term forecast package and reasoning at this time.
Although seas continue to subside based on the data from the surrounding
buoys, choppy seas and hazardous marine and dangerous surf zone conditions
will persist through the rest of the week. Breaking waves along the
northern coasts of PR, Culebra, and the northern USVI islands will
range between 6 and 10 feet today where high risk of rip currents
will continue. A secondary northerly swell is expected to move
across the Atlantic and reach the local waters by latter part of
the work week and into the weekend, as well as increasing easterly
winds.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR conds all terminals with generally easterly winds 10 to 15 kts
and sea breeze variation expected to day. Passing SHRA ovr
regional waters with VCSH at TJSJ/TIST/TISX during rest of day
and VCTY TJBQ/TJMZ fm 20/17Z-23Z. No sig operational wx impacts at
local terminals attm. Isold SHRA passages btw E PR and the USVI
with VCSH psbl at TISX after 20/22z. Winds bcmg lgt/vrb aft
20/22Z.
&&
From previous discussion issued at 451 AM AST Tue Dec 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A subsiding north-northeasterly swell between 4 and 5 feet with a
period between 12 and 14 seconds will promote wave breakers
between 6 and 10 feet, resulting in strong rip currents along the
north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.
Expect a mixture of sunshine and clouds today. However, the
remnants of an old frontal boundary pushed by the easterlies will
bring quick passing showers across the local waters and windward
sections early this morning, with sea breeze fluctuations
promoting afternoon showers across western PR. There is a
medium/high chance of frequent showers late tonight into Wednesday
over PR and the northern Virgin Islands. There is a medium chance
that a drier air mass will limit rain activity from late
Wednesday afternoon to Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
Forecast continues mostly on track. Stability aloft has not changed
much with a ridge dominating the mid-levels, and is expected to
persist for the rest of the short-term period. Therefore, any shower
development will remain shallow in nature with the bulk of moisture
largely confined below the 700-600 mb layer. The band of clouds and
showers associated with an old frontal boundary is gradually filling
in the southern half of the CWA. Currently, satellite imagery and
Doppler radar shows clouds with some showers concentrated mostly
over the Caribbean waters, just south/southeast of Puerto Rico with
St. Croix experiencing partly cloudy skies and passing showers at
times. With winds still out of the northeast, a cool advective
pattern will develop during the morning hours today as fragments of
the frontal boundary gets advected towards eastern and northern
sections of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Later isolated to scattered showers will develop over
interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico.
The old frontal boundary will gradually move northward through
Wednesday as winds slowly acquire a southerly component. Latest
model guidance puts Wednesday as the "wettest" day. However, as
mentioned previously, deep convective activity is not expected, but
more like a showery type weather pattern can be anticipated. The
eastern third of Puerto Rico and local islands will experience
partly cloudy skies during morning hours with showers moving inland
every so often. Diurnally induced rainfall activity will develop in
the afternoon over the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Any
rainfall accumulations will result at most in ponding of waters in
roadways and in poor drained areas. A drying trend is expected by
late Wednesday night through Thursday as the band of moisture
associated with the frontal boundary moves away from the forecast
area. Therefore, mostly fair weather conditions can be expected with
a few quick showers developing at times.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
A short wave trough east of the Lesser Antilles will weaken the
mid-level high pressure over the Northeast Caribbean and breaking
somehow the trade wind cap. However, model guidance shows a slight
improvement in upper-level dynamics, meaning there is only a
medium/high chance of observing the typical frequent trade wind
showers through that period. Therefore, Cold air advection over
warmer waters will enhance rain activity, especially overnight and
early morning.
A climatological weather pattern may persist Monday through
Wednesday, which is a mixture of sunshine/clear skies and clouds
with showers arriving due to the arrival of patches of moisture.
The winds will continue from the east through at least Sunday when
they should slowly veer from the east-southeast Monday to
southeast by Wednesday due to the interaction between a surface
high pressure over the Central Atlantic and a cold front moving
eastward across the Western Atlantic.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Brief
mountain top obscuration over E PR due to low clds/-RA through
20/14Z. Passing showers could result in SHRA across
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJPS terminals with possible brief periods of MVFR
conditions at TISX due to reduction of VIS and low ceilings. Winds
will be out of the NE at 10 to 13 knots, with stronger gusts and sea
breeze variation.
&&
.MARINE...
Mariners should exercise caution due to a subsiding northeasterly
swell at 4 to 6 feet and a period between 12 and 14 seconds moving
across the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages. Seas will build
again from the arrival of another long period northeasterly swell
and increasing easterlies Friday through possibly next week,
causing hazardous marine and coastal conditions.
Beachgoers, a northeasterly swell will slowly subside the next few
days. This swell has a period between 12 and 14 seconds and a wave
height between 4 and 5 feet; when reaching the surf zone, expect
breaking waves between 6 and 10 feet with isolated higher heights.
Therefore, expect strong rip currents along the north and east
facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001-002.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...RAMPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 425 AM AST martes 20 de diciembre de 2022 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-210830- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 425 AM AST martes 20 de diciembre de 2022 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Lluvia excesiva...Empozamiento de agua en las carreteras y en areas de drenaje deficiente a traves de sectores del este de Puerto Rico, incluyendo Vieques y Culebra. Inundaciones urbanas y de quebradas son posibles. .Condiciones Maritimas...Embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y pasajes locales. .Corrientes Marinas...Se esperan corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida en el area de rompimiento de las olas, particularmente en las playas con orientacion al norte y este de Puerto Rico, Vieques y Culebra. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...miercoles a lunes Los remanentes de una zona frontal continuaran promoviendo cielo nublado y tiempo lluvioso el miercoles. Parchos de humedad en los niveles bajos seran arrastrados por los vientos frecuentemente durante el fin de semana promoviendo nuevamente tiempo lluvioso a traves de las islas locales. Empozamiento de agua en las carreteras y en areas de drenaje deficiente sera posible con cualquier actividad de lluvia durante este periodo. Condiciones maritimas y costeras peligrosas regresaran el viernes hasta el fin de semana a medida que otra marejada del norte de periodo largo alcance las aguas regionales. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... La activacion de los observadores es recomendada. Por favor de enviar informacion acerca de inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes de resacas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-210830- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 425 AM AST martes 20 de diciembre de 2022 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Lluvia excesiva...Empozamiento de agua en las carreteras y en areas de drenaje deficiente a traves de las islas locales. Inundaciones urbanas y de quebradas son posibles. .Condiciones Maritimas...Embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y Pasaje de Anegada. .Corrientes Marinas...Se esperan corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida en el area de rompimiento de las olas, particularmente en el norte de San Tomas y en el norte y este de Santa Cruz. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...miercoles a lunes Los remanentes de una zona frontal continuaran promoviendo cielo nublado y tiempo lluvioso el miercoles. Parchos de humedad en los niveles bajos seran arrastrados por los vientos frecuentemente durante el fin de semana promoviendo nuevamente tiempo lluvioso a traves de las islas locales. Empozamiento de agua en las carreteras y en areas de drenaje deficiente sera posible con cualquier actividad de lluvia durante este periodo. Condiciones maritimas y costeras peligrosas regresaran el viernes hasta el fin de semana a medida que otra marejada del norte de periodo largo alcance las aguas regionales. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... La activacion de los observadores es recomendada. Por favor de enviar informacion acerca de inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes de resacas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A tourist drowned while swimming with his son on Sandy Beach, Rincon.
Online newspapers first informed of the death of a person from drowning on Friday afternoon. Emergency managers confirmed the news stating that it was a man of around 45 years who drowned in Ocean Park San Juan.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Mayaguez and Vicinity | 2022-12-20 | 56 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, San Juan and Vicinity | 2022-12-23 | 45 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1067582, 1067583.