Rip Current in Puerto Rico, April 20, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
344 PM AST Wed Apr 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a more seasonal pattern throughout the next couple
of days. Showers over the east of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Island during the morning hours and afternoon showers over the west
of Puerto Rico are forecast, at least, through the end of the work
week. The high risk of rip current will continue, and the small
craft should exercise caution too.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...

A mid-upper level trough located over Hispanola continues to
affect some local areas, mainly the southwestern and south-central
parts of Puerto Rico throughout the day. This shortwave trough
enhanced showers and thunderstorm activity across the mentioned
areas.Currently, in the east, a drier air mass is moving into the
region, its progression is easily seen on satellite and radar,
with decreasing clouds and rain. A high surface pressure in the
western Atlantic will introduce more east-northeasterly winds and
will continue promoting breezy conditions with winds up to 15 mph.
By Thursday into Friday, a more seasonal weather pattern will be
observed with showers during the early morning hours over the east
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Island, followed by afternoon
convection over the central and western portions of Puerto Rico.
At this time, expect no significant rainfall accumulations, but it
can change as the next couple of days progresses.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...
.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1004 AM AST Wed Apr 20 2022/

Although there are some discrepancies among global models, the
long-term forecast leans towards a generally moist environment
dominating the region, as suggested by model guidance from the
GFS. A surface high pressure moving into the western Atlantic will
maintain east to northeast surface winds, holding at 10-20 knots
through Monday but diminishing to 5-15 knots and backing more to
the northeast by Tuesday into Wednesday as the high fades. By
Thursday, surface winds will veer to the east- southeast as
another multi-layer high pressure over the tropical Atlantic and
to our east extends further westward into the eastern Caribbean
region. At the 850 to 700 mbar layer, winds will veer to the
south- southeast earlier in the week, supporting mid-level
moisture advection as early as Monday. So far, patches of moisture
streaming across the region will maintain normal seasonal
moisture levels around 1.3 to 1.6 inches during the weekend. After
that, deep tropical moisture advection will cause moisture levels
to reach above-normal seasonal levels, with model-estimated
precipitable water values increasing from 1.7 inches by Monday
afternoon to 2.2 inches by late Thursday night.

Since conditions aloft should remain favorable for deep
convective development, with mid-level temperatures ranging
between -6 and -8 degrees Celsius, expect a gradual increase in
shower and isolated thunderstorm development as the week advances,
mainly resulting from afternoon convection. So far, the best
chance for significant rainfall accumulations appears to be
Wednesday and Thursday, not only due to an increase in moisture
levels but also from slow-moving showers under a weak steering
flow. As a result, the threat of flooding will also increase, with
moderate to heavy rains generating ponding of water on roadways
and poorly drained areas to urban and small stream flooding,
mainly across and to the north of the Cordillera Central. Since
uncertainties increase with time and any variations in the timing
and moisture levels could result in a completely different
scenario, there is low confidence in this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA over NW PR should end around sunset, causing
tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Across the rest of the terminals,
mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the next 24
hours. ESE winds will continue at 15-20 kt thru 21z, becoming ENE
thereafter at 10-15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of up to 6 feet are anticipated. Operators of
small craft should exercise caution. There remains a high risk of
rip currents for beaches of Culebra, Vieques, St. Croix, and
northern and eastern Puerto Rico. Nearly all other local beaches
have a moderate risk of rip currents, with the exception of some
beaches along the west coast of Puerto Rico south of Rincon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  86 /  20  30  40  40
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-
     Vieques.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for St Croix.

AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....MMC
PUBLIC DESK...GRS

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
424 AM AST miercoles 20 de abril de 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-210830-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y
424 AM AST miercoles 20 de abril de 2022

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas... Existe una probabilidad de tronadas con los aguaceros
mas fuertes y vientos en rafaga en horas de la tarde sobre sectores
del interior y oeste de Puerto Rico.

.Inundaciones... Lluvias fuertes podrian generar acumulacion de agua
en carreteras y sectores de pobre drenaje.

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH (17
nudos) a traves de sectores de las aguas locales y areas costeras,
excepto sobre las aguas al noroeste de Puerto Rico.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de las
aguas locales.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes
marinas para la costa norte y sureste de Puerto Rico, este de Vieques
y todas las playas de Culebra. El riesgo se tornara moderado esta
noche.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

A pesar de que el riesgo alto de corrientes marinas termina esta noche,
regresara el viernes y continuara para la mayoria de las playas con
exposicion norte hasta el martes. El riesgo de inundaciones urbanas
y de riachuelos aumentara el lunes y martes sobre el oeste de Puerto
Rico.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, le
agradeceriamos reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-210830-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
424 AM AST miercoles 20 de abril de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH (17
nudos) a traves de sectores de las aguas mar afuera del Caribe y el
Pasaje de Anegada.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de las
aguas locales.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para el este de Santa Cruz. El riesgo es moderado en el resto del
area hoy y esta noche.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

El riesgo de corrientes marinas continuara alto para el extremo este
de Santa Cruz hasta el martes. El resto de las islas debe experimentar
riesgo moderado.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, le
agradeceriamos reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.