The combination of an upper level trough and a surface frontal boundary resulted in favorable weather conditions for shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. This resulted in active afternoon with several flood advisories issued.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
The combination of an upper level trough and a surface frontal boundary resulted in favorable weather conditions for shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. This resulted in active afternoon with several flood advisories issued.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 5:16 PM AST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 PM AST Fri Apr 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Unstable and deteriorating conditions will continue to
develop across the region. This evolving pattern will enhance the
chance for showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms for
the weekend into the upcoming week. Moisture will increase
considerably Monday onward. Hazardous marine conditions are
forecast to prevail across the local waters with seas up to 8
feet and winds up to 20 knots.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
As expected, another round of shower and thunderstorm activity
materialized throughout the afternoon, although slightly stronger
than in the previous day. Several Flood Advisories were issued
across western Puerto Rico and also in and around the San Juan
Metropolitan area. A Marine Weather Statement was also issued for
the local waters between Fajardo and Culebra due observed funnel
clouds. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue for these areas.
This activity is forecast to gradually diminish over the land areas
through the evening hours, moving more to the western and northern
local waters. As it do so, advisories could still be extended or
even change to a warnings due to already elevated rivers and
stream flows and urban flooding. Moisture advection from the
easterly trades will also promote shower activity to affect the
eastern and northern coastal areas of the islands late tonight
through the morning hours.
Throughout the weekend, the upper-level trough over the Caribbean is
still expected to deepen with axis slightly western than previous
model cycles, over Hispaniola. As it do so, the mid-level cutoff
low will amplify and position itself with its divergent side over
Puerto Rico. At low-levels, the remnants of the frontal boundary
north of the forecast area will combine with the reflected,
strong induced surface trough. Latest model cycles, puts this
surface trough also slightly western than previous solutions.
However, model guidance still show winds shifting more from the
southeast promoting moisture pulling from the south into the
northeastern Caribbean. This will support above normal moisture
content within the atmospheric column. However, global models,
especially the GFS, have backed off slightly from a more
widespread thunderstorm activity due to a slight reduction in
available moisture, but weather conditions still look very
unstable and wet.
Therefore, expect deep convective activity on Saturday afternoon
and, under the influence of an east southeast wind flow,
west/northwest Puerto Rico as it combines with diurnal heating and
sea breeze convergence. Breezy conditions will also aid in the
formation of streamers downwind of Vieques and Culebra which could
affect the eastern municipalities of Puerto Rico and also
downwind of El Yunque into the southern sections of the San Juan
metropolitan area. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain will
produce accumulations of up to 2.0 inches with slightly higher
amounts in localized areas, especially across northwestern Puerto
Rico. This could cause urban and small stream flooding during the
afternoon activity. This activity will slowly move to the local
waters during the evening and late night hours, with some
affecting the windward coastal municipalities, mainly across the
eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Sunday looks to be another active day, however, shower and
thunderstorm activity could become more widespread as the trough
continues to strengthen. By this time, soils could be saturated
increasing the chance of urban and small stream flooding or even the
potential for flash flood and mudslide incidents, especially
during the afternoon through the evening hours. However, this will
highly depend on the available moisture which continues to change
for the Sunday night period.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM AST Fri Apr 15 2022/
A much wetter pattern is forecast for the long term period over
the forecast area. An enhancement in the upper divergent pulse of
the MJO and a upper level trough just northeast of the region
will increase the instability over the CWA. This mid to upper
level trough is forecast to reflect in the surface, creating a low
pressure trough just over the The Hispanola. As this trough moves
into the northwestern Caribbean near The Bahamas, a more
southeasterly component in the wind profile is forecast. This wind
flow will drag ITCZ moisture across the region with Precipitable
water above climatological normals on Monday and onwards. The
presence of the upper level trough will bring cold temperatures at
the mid to upper levels between the -8 to -10 degree Celsius for
the fist part of the period. Adding to the analysis the Galvez-
Davison Index(GDI) suggests better conditions for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with the strongest activity on Monday and
Wednesday. However, thunderstorm activity is also expected on
Tuesday as well due to the instability aloft and colder
temperatures.
By midweek as the upper level trough will be again reinforced
just at our west over Cuba, an more ridging pattern in the upper
levels could lead to an anticyclonic circulation overhead,
resulting in a some mid level cloud advection over the forecast
area. This cloud layer could delay the daytime heating, placing
the shower activity more into the mid to late afternoon hours. On
Thursday, a little break in moisture with a slot of drier air is
possible, but shower activity still forecast mainly in the afternoon
hours. By late Friday, wind conditions will turn unfavorable, as
the pressure gradient relaxes over the area and gentle to moderate
winds are forecast. In general terms, expected moderate to strong
periods of shower activity accompanied by isolated thunderstorms
for all the upcoming week. This activity could lead to flash
flooding in localized areas. If this pattern unfolds, rainfall
accumulations and saturated soils will trigger much flood
potential during the latter part of the period, due to the slow
motion of the showers. Daytime temperatures will remain near
normals and may fluctuate with the cloud coverage.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across most terminals next 24 hours.
Temporary MVFR or worse possible 15/18Z-15/22Z at TJBQ due to
TSRA/SHRA. Though VCSH at TJSJ from 15/18Z to 15/23Z are expected to
only have limited operational impacts, brief MVFR cannot be entirely
ruled out. Winds will be out of the southeast at 12 to 18 knots,
with sea breeze variations and stronger gusts. After sunset, winds
subside, becoming light overnight. Winds increase after sunrise
tomorrow, out of the southeast at 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...Breezy conditions continue to influence local waters.
Seas up to 8 feet are expected tonight with wind speeds up to 20
knots with stronger gusts. Small Craft Advisories will remain in
effect for the offshore Atlantic Waters and the Anegada Passage
until Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has also been
issued for the Caribbean waters starting Saturday evening through
Sunday afternoon. High Risk of rip currents are in effect for most
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 40 40 50 50
STT 74 84 74 85 / 40 40 30 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Culebra-
North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-
Southeast-Vieques.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM AST this evening for Southeast
Coastal Plains.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Mayaguez
and Vicinity.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for St Croix-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.
AM... Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 PM AST Sunday for
Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Monday for Anegada Passage
Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI
from 10 NM to 19.5N.
&&
SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....CVB
PUBLIC DESK...ERGHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 559 AM AST Fri Apr 15 2022 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-161000- San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior- North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest- Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques- The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters- 559 AM AST Fri Apr 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic Coastal Waters. .Day One...Today and Tonight .Thunderstorms...There is a chance of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall mostly over the interior and northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. .Flooding...Heavy rains could lead to urban and small stream flooding. .Wind...Sustained winds in excess of 20 MPH (17 knots) are expected across the local waters and some coastal areas. .Waves...Hazardous seas of 7 to 8 feet expected across most the offshore waters and the Anegada Passage. .Rip Currents...There is a high risk of rip currents across the beaches from northwest to northeast, and southeast Puerto Rico, all of Culebra and eastern Vieques. Moderate risk of rip currents expected elsewhere. .Days Two through Seven...Saturday through Thursday An increase in the chance of thunderstorm development with periods locally heavy rains is expected on Saturday and through the early part of next week. This will be due to the development of mid to upper level trough, cold mid level temperatures and increasing moisture convergence across the region as winds become more southeasterly. This expected enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will increase the probability for flooding in urban areas and along rivers and small streams. A large plume of tropical moisture is forecast to be lifted up across the region from Sunday into next week and this may cause a multi- day wet spell over the local islands, if these forecast conditions unfold as suggested by most recent long range model guidance. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Please relay any information about winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan while following all local and state guidelines. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-161000- St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix- Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters- 559 AM AST Fri Apr 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the adjacent Coastal Waters. .Day One...Today and Tonight .Thunderstorms...There is a chance of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall activity in the afternoon hours. .Flooding...Heavy rains could lead to urban and minor flooding. .Wind...Sustained winds in excess of 20 MPH (17 knots) are expected across the local waters and some coastal areas. .Waves...Hazardous seas between 7 to 8 feet expected across most the offshore waters and the Anegada Passage. .Rip Currents...There is a moderate to high risk of rip currents across all the exposed beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands. .Days Two through Seven...Saturday through Thursday An increase in the chance of thunderstorm development with periods locally heavy rains is expected on Saturday and through the early part of next week. This will be due to the development of mid to upper level trough, cold mid level temperatures and increasing moisture convergence across the region as winds become more southeasterly. This expected enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will increase the probability for flooding in urban areas and along rivers and small streams. A large plume of tropical moisture is still forecast to be lifted up across the region from Sunday into next week and this may cause a multi- day wet spell over the local islands, if these forecast conditions unfold as suggested by most recent long range model guidance. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Please relay any information about winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan while following all local and state guidelines.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency managers from San Juan reported that a flooded street was affecting a house over Urb. Santiago Iglesias.
Emergency managers reported that a small stream close to Urb. Villa Nevares overflowed, causing some street to be flooded close to the area.
Emergency managers from San Juan called to report that several streets close to Urb. Santiago Iglesias were flooded.
Emergency managers from San Juan called to report that Simon Madera Street was flooded.
Emergency managers from San Juan called to report that several streets were flooded in Barrio Obrero.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, April 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1012792, 1012797, 1012793, 1012794, 1012796.