A strong front brought gusty winds and snow to south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A strong front brought gusty winds and snow to south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 8:17 PM PST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
817 PM PST Sun Nov 6 2022
.DISCUSSION...07/00Z NAM in. 07/00Z GFS in through 84hr.
A strong front is now moving through the Medford forecast area.
Strong winds are occurring ahead of it, and all areas from the
Cascades west have received significant, but not excessive,
rainfall. The east side has gotten light precipitation, and
coverage has been spotty so far.
The front will move out of the area later tonight and the winds
will diminish. Snow levels will drop to around 2500 feet behind
the front. However, the upper low supporting the front will
remain offshore, digging slowly south before it finally moves
inland over northern California Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Until that happens, the cold air aloft will support convection,
and showers will persist through Tuesday night. There will also be
isolated thunderstorms from the Coast Range west. Amounts will be
on the light side with one notable exception: the Mount Shasta
area, where convection will be enhanced by upslope flow.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories covering all
of this event are in effect, see PDXWSWMFR for details.
Showers will diminish Wednesday as the low moves off to the east
and a strong upper ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest.
Showers will end Wednesday evening.
Long term discussion from the Sunday afternoon AFD...Thu 10 Nov
through Sun 13 Nov 2022.
Models, deterministic and ensemble spaghetti plots remain in very
good agreement in rapidly progressing the upper trough east to over
the Rockies by Thursday morning, bringing an upper ridge over the
west coast. All of the GEFS spaghetti plots are indicating this
solution, with the GFS and ECMWF meteogram members almost all
indicating a dry spell Thursday.
Friday into next weekend The deterministic runs remain in good
agreement with an upper low approaching the northern California
coast, with the GFS being faster on the approach into the region
than the ECMWF. The meteogram solutions follow this trend also, but
the ECMWF's slower solution of bringing the upper low closer
Saturday into next Sunday has a much higher percentage of the
meteogram members bringing precipitation into Medford compared to
the GFS. The ECMWF has more than half to close to two thirds of
the members showing measurable precipitation next weekend,
compared to only around a third of the GFS members. The current
forecast reflects these uncertainties. -Sven
&&
.AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...A strong frontal system is moving through
the area currently. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings with areas of
IFR cig/vis with the frontal band of precipitation. Higher terrain
will be obscured with snow and freezing levels of 3500-4500 feet.
Precipitation moving into areas east of the Cascades will either
be snow, or rain changing to snow as colder air moves in. An
airport weather warning is out for Klamath Falls, where wind gusts
of 35 kt or higher and a few inches of snow are expected. This
continues through late this evening.
Gusty winds will continue through late this evening, primarily from
the Cascades eastward and in NorCal ahead of the front. These should
ease overnight as the front pushes to the east and south.
After the front passes, freezing levels drop to 2500-3500 feet west
of the Cascades. Expect areas of MVFR ceilings, terrain
obscurations and showers to persist overnight into Monday. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Sunday 6 November 2022...High and
steep northwest swell persists over the coastal waters this evening.
Peak wave heights this afternoon were 17-19 feet at the nearshore
buoys 46027, 46015 and 46229, generally 2-3 feet higher than most of
the wave guidance for this event. These have come down a bit
recently and are generally in the 14-17 ft range. Another low
pressure will swing north of the area tonight with WSW winds
averaging 15-25 kt. The swell will actually peak again on Monday
afternoon at similar heights as today, so warnings/advisories remain
in effect for that through Monday evening. Steep seas will linger
Monday night into Tuesday, but conditions will finally improve
Wednesday into Thursday. Another strong front may approach the area
from the west late Friday. -Spilde
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday 6 November 2022...
High to very high northwest swells will continue into Monday. Seas
are expected to come down a bit this evening and overnight, but then
peak again at 16-19 feet over the coastal waters Monday afternoon
and early Monday evening. This will result in high surf and breaking
waves in the surf zone of 20-23 feet for all southern Oregon
beaches. A high surf advisory remains in effect. If you are at the
beach through Monday, please observe from a safe distance and stay
clear/off the jetties. Area beaches may become hazardous due to
dangerous surf conditions. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for ORZ031.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for ORZ024-026.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for ORZ025.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for ORZ027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for CAZ080>082.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for
CAZ080-081.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for
CAZ082-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for CAZ083.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for CAZ084.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for CAZ085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for CAZ085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PST Monday
for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for
PZZ350-356.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ370-376.
&&
15/15/18PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
500 PM PST SUN NOV 6 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE SELMA 42.35N 123.57W
11/06/2022 M1.12 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAIN TOTAL 0800-1700 PST. STARTED RAINING AT
0700 PST BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL AFTER
0800 PST. HIGH TEMPERATURE 48 DEGREES.
ELEVATION 1550 FEET.
&&
JRSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Summit RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 06/2203 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1056182.