An incoming front brought high winds to several locations in southwest and south central Oregon on this date.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to several locations in southwest and south central Oregon on this date.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 6, 9:34 PM PST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
934 PM PST Thu Jan 6 2022
.DISCUSSION...A front is slowly marching twords the coast and is
well evident on IR-sattelite as cloud top temperatures drop
off sharply along the boundary. Ahead of the front the pressure
gradient is sharpening and winds are piking up along the coast.
Gusts from Crescent City to North Bend range from 20-30 mph, as
the KOTH to KACV gradient is -5.6. Per the NAM, the gradient
should climb to -9.0 or more and this will bring storm force winds
onshore.
Returns are just starting to show up on radar along the coast and
so far does not show much in the way of embeded convective
features, but these returns are from air being forced over the
remnants of a warm front. A more convective appearance is expected
to be present along the front, driving a 60% chance for 0.75"/hr
sowfall rates. Although the snow level is not expected to drop in
time for these rates to impact passes leading up to the Cascades
from the west (like at Diamond Lake) in the Cascades tomorrow
morning (10 AM PST or a few hours before), it could lead to some
heavy periods of snowfall along highways 138 and 58. Add in 30-40
mph wind gusts and conditions will be deterioirated further due to
blowing snow. Do use caution if traveling on mountain roads
tonight or tomorrow morning and see WSWMFR for further details on
the winter weather advisory.
This discussion lines up well with the previous one below, which
has details on wind hazards for the Shasta Valley and East of the
Cascades. No changes were needed with the forecast at this time.
-Miles
&&
.AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...From the Cascades west...VFR conditions
will prevail initially inland, with areas of MVFR cigs over the
coastal waters and along the coast. A strong front will bring wet
and windy conditions to the area tonight into Friday, with
obscuration of higher terrain. Under the obscured terrain, MVFR
cigs/vsbys in low clouds and rain will become widespread tonight.
The steady rain will change to showers early Friday, but the MVFR
cigs will persist through the day. Low level wind shear will be a
concern at KOTH, KRBG, and KMFR until the front passes through those
station between 2 AM and 6 AM PST Friday.
East of the Cascades...VFR conditions will prevail initially, but
higher terrain will become obscured tonight. Under the obscured
terrain, areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds, rain, and snow will
develop tonight. The steady precipitation will change to showers
Friday, but areas of MVFR cigs will persist through the day. It will
be windy in front of and in the vicinity of the front.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Thursday 6 January 2022...A strong
front will move into the waters this evening through early Friday
morning, bringing strong south gale force winds and very steep seas
to the waters. Occasional storm force gusts are possible with this
front as it moves onshore late tonight and early Friday morning. The
strong winds will gradually diminish late Friday morning, but very
steep seas will persist through Friday night. High pressure will
build offshore Saturday, bringing a break in the stormy pattern
through Sunday night. A weak front will move onshore Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM PST Thu Jan 6 2022/
SHORT TERM...
Eventually, a strong storm system will push into Oregon later
tonight into Friday bringing strong winds, snow and wetting rain
to the region. The first region to be impacted will be the coast
as strong winds near the surface and aloft hit the coast.
Climatologically, this storm isn't all that special with wind
anomalies in the 90th to 97th percentile for this time of year.
However, some of the deterministic data from the models shows
winds around 60 to 65 knots roughly 1500 to 2000 feet above sea
level. These winds will likely hit the coastal headlands ahead of
the cold front and come very close to hitting high wind criteria.
Overall impacts here will likely be low since the region already
saw a strong wind storm not even a week ago. Conversely, driving a
high profile vehicle in these strong winds will be difficult. It's
also worth noting the probability of wind gusts >53 kts in the
coastal headlands is roughly 50 percent according to the National
Blend of Models(NBM).
Those winds will push inland along the cold front and flow
through the Shasta Valley. We like to see the 700 mb flow align
with this valley in addition to a strong south to north pressure
gradient between Medford and Redding. We don't really have either
of those in this scenario with the gradient around 7 mb. With
that in mind, we'll probably see gusts hover around 45 to 50 mph
range around Weed and sections of the Shasta Valley.
Finally, the winds will make their trip east of the Cascades on
Friday becoming strong and gusty in their usually locations.
Winds roughly 9000 feet above sea level are around 55 to 65 knots
in a few deterministic models. This usually results in high wind
gusts around the Summer Lake to Paisley area. Hence, we decided to
issue a high wind warning for those location in addition to the
Warners just east of Lakeview. Confidence is lower for the
Warner Mountains as the strongest winds are farther north. This
is the only change from the previous forecast.
Aside from the winds, we are also concerned about the snow fall
accumulation and snow fall rates above 5500 feet in the Cascades
and Siskiyou Mountains. Snowfall accumulation will be roughly 5
to 9 inches in the Cascades and 3 to 6 inches in western Siskiyou
County. The main concern will be snowfall rates as we're
forecasting 6 inches of snow in roughly 12 hours. This barely
meets our criteria for a winter weather advisory. As stated
earlier, the snowfall rates will likely approach 1 inch an hour as
this front moves through.
After everything moves through, high pressure will begin to build
in over the forecast area leading to a areas of fog and freezing
fog east of the Cascades.
-Smith
LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday, January 8-13, 2022...
The upper trough axis associated with Friday's front will shift to
the east of the area on Saturday allowing for rising heights as an
upper ridge builds in from the Pacific. Surface high pressure will
take hold over the area, so expect a damp morning with some low
clouds and fog, but there should be increasing sunshine through the
day. High temperatures are likely to be within a few degrees of
where they should be for this time of year (mid to upper 40s for the
valleys west of the Cascades, low 50s along the coast, and in the
upper 30s to near 40F over the East Side and NE California).
The upper ridge axis will be overhead Saturday night, then push
eastward and set up over the Great Basin on Sunday. This will
maintain dry weather region-wide with mostly light offshore east
winds. These will be strongest at upper slopes/ridges and perhaps
become a bit more southeasterly during the day. It probably goes
without saying, but due to recent precipitation and lots of low-
level/ground moisture, we'll likely be dealing with low clouds, fog
and freezing fog again -- at least in the morning. Nights are still
very long, so hopefully this won't ruin what would otherwise be a
nicer weekend.
Split flow will develop over the eastern Pacific Sunday night into
Monday as the next Pacific frontal system approaches the West Coast.
But, as is often the case, one piece of this disturbance will glance
by us to the north, while another closes off and heads toward SoCal.
Slight chance/chance PoPs persist for areas west of the Cascades
(best chance at coast), but we think the vast majority of the area
will likely remain dry.
Upper ridging is favored to rebuild into the area Tuesday with the
next Pacific system arriving sometime mid next week (more likely
Wednesday/Wed night). Depending on the strength of ridging in
advance of this system, this one too may split or at least have
difficulty penetrating very far inland. Either way, this one appears
fairly weak as well and the drier pattern overall is likely to
persist through the end of next week. Temperatures overall will
continue to run fairly close to the seasonal averages, though where
snow cover still exists, nighttime lows could be a few degrees below
normal. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ030-031.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ031.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday above 5500 feet in
the for ORZ027-028.
CA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Friday for CAZ085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday above 5500 feet in
the for CAZ080.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Port Orford NOS/NWLON recorded winds exceeding 58 mph continuously during this interval. The peak wind was 73 mph at 07/0217 PST.
A CWOP at Summer Lake recorded numerous gusts exceeding 58 mph during this interval. The peak wind was 71 mph at 07/1315 PST. The Summer Lake RAWS recorded a gust to 71 mph at 07/1338 PST and a gust to 59 mph at 07/1438 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 992022, 992023.