Drought in Oklahoma, September 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1012 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

The evening sfc analysis indicates a stationary frontal bndry
extending from SCntrl/SE OK across the Nrn sections of SW AR, into
SE AR and Wrn MS. This bndry focused widely scattered convection
earlier this afternoon, which has since recently diminished.
Additional SW moving convection has gradually diminished and just
moved out of the CWA into Cntrl LA, with this area likely done
with rain for the night given the lack of any significant focus.
H850-500 ridging has become anchored over the region this evening,
which will maintain mostly quiet conditions overnight. Some of the
CAMs do suggest that isolated convection may redevelop along the
old sfc bndry across the Nrn/NE sections of SW AR and possibly
into portions of NE LA late, where moderate instability remains
even as of 03Z. Thus, have extended slight chance pops overnight
across these areas, and removed pops elsewhere. The CAMs are also
in agreement with with any additional convection remaining off to
our W, where a deep Srly low level moisture fetch will persist,
and possibly enhance redevelopment late where residual bndrys
remain, alongside an MCV spinning NW of MWL (per the mosaic radar
imagery). Did not make many changes to min temps, other than very
minor adjustments based on the latest obs.

Scattered convection should increase once again especially by
early/mid afternoon with daytime heating contributing to moderate
instability within the persistently moist environment, the
presence of the stationary front, and approaching trough advancing
E across the Srn Plains late in the day.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

VFR conditions will continue through much if not all of the 01/00Z
TAF period. Isolated convection over NE LA just S of MLU and
SCntrl AR N of ELD is expected to diminish by early evening,
although isolated convection over the Wrn sections of E TX may
linger a while longer, remaining near the TYR/GGG terminals. While
additional isolated redevelopment can not be ruled out overnight
mainly along a weak stationary front extending from Srn OK into
the Nrn sections of SW AR into NE LA, the area terminals should
remain dry, although elevated cigs will linger across the region,
with some AC cigs possible across E TX/extreme SW AR this late.
Some patchy FG also can't be ruled out, but given the extent of
the elevated cigs, have omitted mention in the TAF's attm. A sct
stratocu field may develop by mid to late morning Thursday, with
scattered convection developing by early/mid afternoon across much
of N LA, SW AR, SE OK, and portions of E TX. Have added VCTS for
the SHV/SW AR terminals by 19Z, with the convection more widely
scattered/isolated farther W across E TX, where VCSH was added.
However, deeper convection should increase over E TX by late
afternoon and especially during the evening. Where the convection
is observed Thursday afternoon, locally gusty winds, reduced
vsbys, and MVFR cigs will be possible. Lt/Vrb winds tonight will
generally become generally become SSW after 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  92  74  90 /  10  50  30  40
MLU  74  92  72  88 /  10  10  10  30
DEQ  72  87  71  88 /  10  60  30  40
TXK  74  89  72  87 /  10  50  30  40
ELD  72  89  73  86 /  20  20  10  30
TYR  75  91  73  86 /  10  60  50  60
GGG  74  91  72  87 /  10  60  30  50
LFK  74  93  73  90 /  10  50  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
155 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011900-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
155 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook for southern Arkansas, for northern
Louisiana, for eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hot temperatures and high relative humidity will allow our heat
index values to sneak back into the triple digits today. While a
heat advisory is not needed it will feel hotter than lately. Our
heat index values between 100-105 degrees are expected this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
peak heating this afternoon. No other hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will remain over eastern Texas and edge back
eastward across the rest of our area as that weak cool front
dissipates into Friday. The upper low over Texas with all the
tropical moisture will link with a new stronger upper low in the
southern plains and spread back good chances for thunderstorms over
all of our four state area for Friday, this coming Labor Day holiday
weekend, and even the middle of next week for that matter. We will
continue with near or below average temperatures. No widespread
hazardous weather is expected, but minor flooding may become a
concern again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

24