Northeast Ohio resided in the warm sector during the afternoon and early evening of the 16th, when a pre-frontal surface trough moved east-southeastward through the area. Low-level convergence and associated ascent along the trough axis acted as a focus for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
Northeast Ohio resided in the warm sector during the afternoon and early evening of the 16th, when a pre-frontal surface trough moved east-southeastward through the area. Low-level convergence and associated ascent along the trough axis acted as a focus for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. One storm managed to produce penny-size hail. This convection occurred in an environment with weak to moderate MUCAPE and moderate effective bulk shear.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 3:17 PM EST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 417 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move southeast across the area tonight, followed by high pressure building in late tonight and Tuesday. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. A much stronger low moving into the Upper Midwest Thursday night will lift a warm front across the area by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Significantly drier air has worked into the region this afternoon, and this along with sinking motion behind the H5 vort max that moved through has allowed skies to become mostly sunny. The sunshine has helped temperatures to quickly spike into the 65-70 degree range this afternoon across northern Ohio after the cool morning, and expect NW PA to reach these readings by late afternoon as the clearing line moves east. Despite the drier/sunnier trend, not all areas will stay completely dry this afternoon and evening. A reinforcing shortwave, currently diving through lower Michigan, will push a secondary cold front south across Lake Erie and northern Ohio/NW PA early tonight and further deepen the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. A wind shift, or perhaps weak surface trough, ahead of this feature is starting to ignite convective showers over NW Ohio and the western basin of Lake Erie with additional convection over the thumb of Michigan. CAMS are not initializing with this activity well at all, but pattern recognition and the movement of this wind shift/trough will push this broken line of convection E/SE across northern Ohio and NW PA late this afternoon and early evening, with the greatest coverage within a tier of Counties closest to the lakeshore. The aforementioned surface heating beneath the longwave trough and associated cold pool aloft is leading to very steep low-level lapse rates of 8 to 9.5 C/Km per the latest Mesoanalysis, with mid-level lapse rates also quite steep at 6.5 to 7 C/Km. SBCAPE values are now over 1000 J/Kg with MLCAPE coming up to 500-1000 J/Kg too. This will all support some impressive updrafts within this broken line, so brief heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds will occur in the strongest cells. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter sized given the very steep low-level lapse rates and dry mid-levels to enhance downdrafts and -10 to -30 C CAPE (Hail Growth CAPE) averaging 200- 400 J/Kg. The best chance for a severe storm will be over NE Ohio or NW PA between about 21 and 23Z. Strong 1020 mb surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest will begin building in tonight, moving into the central Great Lakes Tuesday. This will promote dry conditions behind the secondary cold front tonight through Tuesday, but with the continued mid/upper troughing over the eastern CONUS and 850 mb temps falling to 1 to 3 C over our region Tuesday morning, temperatures will be much cooler. Lows tonight will fall into the low 50s with some mid/upper 40s in NW PA, and highs Tuesday will stay in the low/mid 60s except low 70s in NW Ohio. The eastern CONUS longwave trough begins to lift out Tuesday night, but a quasi-zonal flow pattern across the U.S. will remain active allowing a shortwave trough to progress into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The associated upper jet will lead to a fairly organized surface low crossing the Mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, with a warm front beginning to lift north into NW and north central Ohio. Increasing warm air advection and isentropic ascent will drive some showers across Indiana during the night which could reach NW and north central Ohio after 10Z Wednesday morning, but very dry low-levels at the onset will hold most of this off until after sunrise, so slowed down PoPs from the NBM. Lows Tuesday night will be milder in NW and north central Ohio due to increasing clouds and warm air advection with low/mid 50s expected, but clearer skies will allow for low/mid 40s in NE Ohio and NW PA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level shortwave trough and associated weak wave of surface low pressure propagates eastward across the area on Wednesday, likely bringing scattered showers to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. In its wake, a warm front will be left just south of the area, extending from a deep surface low over the northern Great Plains. Current expectation is for this warm front to lift north across the area during Thursday evening through Thursday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this warm front. MUCAPE expected to be around 750-1000 J/kg with deep layer shear of around 25-35 kts could prove to be sufficient for an isolated stronger storm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Friday, the local area will be firmly entrenched in the warm front. While model guidance predicts moderate instability, there should be substantial MLCIN in place associated with the warm advection regime, which should limit the potential for thunderstorm development. This same warm air advection will also lead to seasonably hot temperatures with 850 mb temperatures of around 18-20 C, which should result in surface temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across the entire area. Most of the area will be within a few degrees of record highs for May 20th. Upper-level trough and associated surface cold front moves to the area on Saturday/Sunday, depending on which model you look at. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms sometime Friday night through Sunday morning, with highest PoPs (50-60 range) for Saturday afternoon, which is when model consensus has the highest likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. Depending on timing, there could be severe convection on Saturday for the eastern part of the CWA ahead of the cold front, though the greatest likelihood for severe weather is for areas east of the CWA. Behind this cold front, colder temperatures are ushered in with high temperatures falling back to the 60s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Timing the end of showers was tricky this morning, but the back edge is finally reaching ERI. Kept ERI at MVFR until 19Z, then the clearing line should return them to VFR. Much drier air the rest of this afternoon and evening will keep VFR conditions across all TAF sites lasting through Tuesday morning. The exception is for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms that could impact ERI this evening along a second cold front. Coverage will be minimal, so used VCTS. Brief heavy rain and MVFR or IFR could occur if a thunderstorm moves over the terminal. West to northwest winds will be gusty in the 15-25 knot range behind the initial cold front this afternoon, but this will diminish to generally 5-10 knots this evening and tonight while veering north to northwest as high pressure builds in from the north. Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and lower ceilings Wednesday into Thursday. Non-VFR possible in showers and/or thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible again late Friday and Saturday in showers and/or thunderstorms. && .MARINE... West to northwest flow continues this evening through Tuesday afternoon. Winds speeds should hold generally around 15 knots, though occasional speeds to around 20 knots will be possible, which could create a choppy Lake Erie. For now, holding with a forecast of 2-4 ft waves, though acknowledge that some areas could briefly reach marginal Small Craft Advisory criteria during this timeframe. High pressure briefly and quickly builds across the lake Tuesday night, exiting to the east on Wednesday. Winds generally stay at or below 10 knots through Thursday. A warm front lifts north across the lake Thursday night with southerly winds of 15-20 knots developing on Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Saunders
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 348 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089-PAZ001>003-172000- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH- Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH- Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH- Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake- Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage- Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning- Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie- Southern Erie- 348 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
305 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022
OHZ008-009-019-161930-
Huron OH-Erie OH-Sandusky OH-
305 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Huron,
Erie and eastern Sandusky Counties through 330 PM EDT...
At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Port Clinton, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bellevue, Clyde, Castalia, Whites Landing, Bloomingville and Vickery.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4146 8307 4145 8300 4143 8301 4145 8297
4142 8294 4145 8283 4134 8260 4118 8282
4119 8284 4125 8284 4126 8292 4141 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 307DEG 32KT 4141 8298
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SaundersSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022
OHZ009-010-019-162030-
Huron OH-Erie OH-Lorain OH-
346 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Huron, Erie
and west central Lorain Counties through 430 PM EDT...
At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Northern Milan, or over Norwalk, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Norwalk, New London, Milan, Northern Milan, Wakeman, Oberlin,
Monroeville, Berlin Heights, Kipton and Rochester.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4122 8278 4139 8269 4128 8223 4107 8234
4107 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 292DEG 30KT 4128 8264
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
LombardySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
442 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022
OHZ020-021-162130-
Summit OH-Medina OH-
442 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Medina and
west central Summit Counties through 530 PM EDT...
At 442 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medina, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Medina, Brunswick, Wadsworth, Chippewa Lake, Norton, Fairlawn, Gloria
Glens Park, Valley City, Chippewa-On-The-Lake, Briarwood Beach,
Pigeon Creek and Montrose-Ghent.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4110 8205 4120 8199 4120 8197 4122 8197
4126 8195 4117 8158 4099 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 299DEG 17KT 4116 8193
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
LombardyThe Cleveland radar (KCLE), 33 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:51 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Penny-size hail reported near OH-18 in far-eastern Medina County, about three-miles northwest of Pigeon Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1021559.