A warm front draped from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley led to morning showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley early in the day. These showers and storms continued to progress southward toward central North Carolina in the evening hours, especially across the northwest, central, and southern Piedmont.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A warm front draped from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley led to morning showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley early in the day. These showers and storms continued to progress southward toward central North Carolina in the evening hours, especially across the northwest, central, and southern Piedmont. The storms did not completely clear the area until the early overnight hours, as storms by then moved into South Carolina. There were numerous reports of trees and power lines down across Guilford, Forsyth, and Davidson Counties, as well as wind damage reports over Granville, Person, and Franklin Counties. Isolated flash flooding also occurred in parts of Forsyth County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 2:45 PM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid southerly flow will persist through the rest of the work week, generating daily scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... Still expected a band of storms to drop into north central NC later this afternoon and translate SSE through the evening. Additional development is possible later tonight, but there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Daytime heating has pushed MLCAPE values to 2000-2500 J/kg thus far, and while effective shear remains marginal, it should improve over the next few hours as the convective complex and its attendant mid level wave approach from the N and NW. The pace of ongoing convection to our N and NW is a bit ahead of the latest CAM guidance, suggesting that it will have a longer residence time within a moderate CAPE environment and thus may survive intact further south in the CWA than earlier anticipated. Will raise pops to likely N and chance S, decreasing overnight. Once this convection reaches close to the Hwy 64 corridor, it should become more outflow dominant and begin to wane, esp with loss of heating later this evening. Still expect a decent wind threat as RAP-based mesoanalyses shows 1000-1400 J/kg of DCAPE ahead of this line, and mid level lapse rates are predicted to rise a bit to over 6 C/km. The arrival of a second MCV later tonight and toward Wed morning may allow additional storms to blossom, esp given model indications of residual marginal elevated CAPE overnight, although CAM output is mixed regarding additional convection overnight. Will have just an isolated pop overnight, given the low confidence, and will monitor. Expect muggy lows in the low to mid 70s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Tuesday... ...Heat advisory for much of central NC Wednesday... Wed will be a messy day with multiple hazards possible. Isolated showers and storms may persist around daybreak across the N, but again, confidence in this is very low. Otherwise, additional perturbations and MCVs within the NW steering flow are likely to move SE into and through NC, and as we'll be within a WAA pattern with surface dewpoints likely to be well into the 70s for much of the day, this should push CAPE up to moderate levels by afternoon, with improving (although still borderline) deep layer shear. The hot and humid conditions should push heat index values over 100F over all but the far W and N Piedmont, with values reaching 105F for at least a couple of hours over much of the Sandhills, far E Piedmont, and the Coastal Plain, so will issue a heat advisory for these areas from 11am to 7 pm. The one wrinkle in this plan is the potential for convective mid clouds to drift over the area, filtering insolation and cutting temps back a bit, but given one more day in the succession of hot days without much cooling at night, an advisory seems warranted. With slow storm motions and a deep warm layer expected with high PW (aoa a daily-record 2.25") pooling across NC, heavy downpours with high totals and rates seem likely, although coverage of such storm clusters is too hard to pin down sufficiently for a flash flood watch at this time. But we'll continue to monitor this closely, and most certainly some flood advisories will be needed tomorrow. The severe threat will persist as well, given the high CAPE and better shear, with straight line winds the primary threat once again. Expect highs in the low-mid 90s followed by lows once again in the low-mid 70s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... Have gone with likely pops for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday in the forecast. It will be hard to pinpoint on any given day where the heaviest rainfall will be because that will be dependent on where convective complexes have left boundaries from the previous day to set up the next round of convection. That being said, the 12Z 3km NAM shows a complex of storms from Raleigh to the VA/NC border at the end of its model run at 00Z Friday and the 12Z GEFS shows a similar area with heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor Thursday evening. SPC has included the entire forecast area in a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for Thursday, and indicated in their discussion about Friday through Tuesday that they anticipate the eventual need for a risk area on Friday. In addition, WPC has included the entire forecast area in a marginal risk (level 1/5) of excessive rainfall for Thursday. All of this weather is expected in the warm sector of a front advancing very slowly to the south from the Ohio Valley. The actual frontal passage is not expected until Saturday, and even then, there will be a chance of storms on the cool side of the front Sunday and a slight chance of storms on Monday. Highs will continue well into the 90s on Thursday and Friday, with heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria of 105 both days. Highs will return to near normal values on Saturday with the frontal passage, and highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday will likely feel refreshing after the 90 degree heat this week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Isolated MVFR cigs persist across central NC but, for the most part, conditions are VFR across the area at this hour as cloud bases have risen to VFR levels. Attention now turns to a nearly solid line of showers and storms across N VA and S WV into E KY, which is dropping toward the SSE, toward NC. Additional isolated storms over the NC and VA mountains are moving toward the SE. Both of these are likely to impact north central NC through the early-mid evening hours, moving roughly NW to SE, bringing a period of sub-VFR conditions within heavy rain and gusty winds mainly to the northern terminals (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) late afternoon through early evening. The linear nature of these storms will make them difficult for aircraft to circumnavigate. Storms will decrease in coverage and intensity as we approach 05z, with only low chances overnight. The risk for sub-VFR stratus and fog late tonight is less than it has been the last couple of mornings, so expect any sub-VFR conditions to be fairly isolated. Otherwise, conditions will be mostly VFR through the end of the TAF valid period, although some storms may begin to form in the 16z-18z time frame N of INT/GSO. Surface winds will stay under 10 knots, mainly from the S and SW becoming SW and W Wed. Looking beyond 18z Wed, high chances for showers and storms with strong/gusty/shifting winds and heavy rainfall will bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions Wed afternoon/evening. Storms will likely decrease after sunset, but sub-VFR fog and stratus is expected to form after midnight, lasting into Thu morning. Scattered showers and storms are possible Thu/Fri, mainly afternoon into evening, with areas of late-night/early-morning fog/stratus each day through Sat. Some improvement in aviation conditions and a reduction in shower and storm chances is expected Sun as a cold front settles to our south. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ010-011- 023>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...JJT NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Hartfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Raleigh NC 349 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 NCZ007>009-021-022-038-039-073-074-061215- Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly- Montgomery- 349 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1) of severe weather through this evening across portions of central NC. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief periods of heavy rain can be expected with the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2) of severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rain which could result in flash flooding are all possible Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday. NCZ010-011-023>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-061215- Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe- Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond- Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 349 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1) of severe weather through this evening across portions of central NC. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief periods of heavy rain can be expected with the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. In addition, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2) of severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rain which could result in flash flooding are all possible Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
523 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
NCZ021-038-052215-
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
523 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Forsyth and
northeastern Davidson Counties through 615 PM EDT...
At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winston-Salem, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Wind gusts of this magnitude are capable
of knocking down large tree branches that may pose a risk
to your life.
Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Kernersville, Clemmons, Lewisville, Pfafftown, Sedge
Garden, Stanleyville and Welcome.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3617 8042 3620 8036 3618 8026 3612 8004
3596 8005 3593 8008 3592 8021 3597 8032
3605 8044 3609 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 297DEG 15KT 3609 8033
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
26The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:35 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of Concord Church Rd and Maurice Daniels Rd in Concord.
Trees and power lines were reported down near the intersection of Shiloh Church Rd and Germanton Rd in Stanleyville.
Trees were reported uprooted or snapped near the intersection of Linville St and Hastings Rd.
Trees and power lines were reported down near the intersection of Southwest School Rd and Lewisville Clemmons Rd in Lewisville.
Trees were reported down near the intersection of Hopkins Rd and Bluff School Rd in Kernersville.
A tree fell on the roadway near the intersection of North Peak Dr and Vancouver Ct in Kernersville.
Several wind gusts were in excess of 50 mph, including one at 59 mph near Springhouse Farm Rd.
Trees were reported down across the road near the intersection of Highway 68 and Highway 150 in Oak Ridge.
The Greensboro observation at the Piedmont-Triad International Airport measured a peak wind gust of 53 knots or 61 mph at 631 pm.
The Greensboro observation at the Piedmont-Triad International Airport measured a peak wind gust of 56 knots or 64 mph at 536 pm.
A detached garage collapsed in Oxford near the intersection of Hillcrest Dr and Forest Rd.
Power outages along Hatchers Run were caused by fallen trees damaging power equipment.
Trees were reported down near the Davidson-Davie Community College.
Power outages near the intersection of Ballard Pruitt Rd and Barefoots Way were caused by fallen trees damaging power equipment.
Power outages near the intersection of South North Carolina Highway 150 and Mt Carmel Rd were caused by fallen trees damaging power equipment.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of East Old US Highway 64 and Allred Rd in Hedrick Grove.
The intersection of Griffith Rd and Salem Creek Dr was closed due to water covering the roadway.
Power outages near the intersection of Liberty Grove Rd and Redbud Ln were caused by fallen trees damaging power equipment.
A stalled car was in flood waters along Lewisville Clemmons Rd in Clemmons.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1047907, 1047916, 1047896, 1047917, 1047908, 1047915, 1047920, 1047898, 1047918, 1047919, 1047909, 1047911, 1047901, 1047912, 1047913, 1047906, 1047887, 1047914, 1047890.